Analyzing Case Study Evidence

1. Analyzing Case Study Evidence Five Analytic Techniques Pattern Matching Explanation Building Time-Series Analysis Logic Models Cross-Case Synthesis

2. Pattern Matching • Predict a pattern • Or more than one (rival hypothesis) – mutually exclusive! • ”OO increases productivity and quality” • Match outcome to pattern(s) • Several variables (productivity, quality, …) • Define measures and data collection method for each • If not entire pattern is supported, you need to question initial hypothesis Pattern Matching Explanation Building Time-Series Analysis Logic Models Cross-Case Synthesis

3. Pattern Matching • Replication • Theoretical replication (different treatment - different outcome?) • E.g.: ”OO not introduced, quality increased” • Literal replication (same treatment - same outcome?) • ”OO introduced, quality increased” Pattern Matching Explanation Building Time-Series Analysis Logic Models Cross-Case Synthesis

4. Pattern Matching • Low level of precision -> interpretation • Fewer variables -> more dramatic differences required • ”Quality increased with 300%” • Other events than the hypothesis • ”At the same time, there was a new boss, allcomputers were exchanged, and the office windows were eventually washed” Pattern Matching Explanation Building Time-Series Analysis Logic Models Cross-Case Synthesis

5. Explanation Building • Special type of pattern matching • Stipulate a presumed set of causal links • Often iterative • Test hypothesis • Refine hypothesis • Could also be a hypothesis-generating process, to develop ideas for further study Pattern Matching Explanation Building Time-Series Analysis Logic Models Cross-Case Synthesis

6. Time Series Analysis • Sample variables over time • Trends, variations, statistical analysis • Simple time series – rising or declining trend • Complex time series – more complex behavior • ”Natural disaster -> disruption on short term, no disruption on long term (population, economic growth, etc.)” • Pattern matching on predicted behavior – rival hypotheses Pattern Matching Explanation Building Time-Series Analysis Logic Models Cross-Case Synthesis

7. Time Series Analysis • Start and end points? • Cross-case comparison (same as pattern matching) • Theoretical replication (different treatment - different outcome?) • Literal replication (same treatment – same outcome?) Pattern Matching Explanation Building Time-Series Analysis Logic Models Cross-Case Synthesis

8. Time Series Analysis • Chronologies • Not descriptive only, but also explanatory • Compare chronology with theory • Sequence of events (cause before effect) • ”Quality increases after OO is introduced” • Time intervals between events • ”Quality increase visible after one year” • Time periods, classes of events • (Pattern matching again…) Pattern Matching Explanation Building Time-Series Analysis Logic Models Cross-Case Synthesis

9. Logic Models • Not what we in this room would call ”logic”! • More advanced predictive model than in time series • At least one figure looked like a state machine • Pattern matching • Strength: if shown to be correct, the model describes opportunities to intervene and break undesired transitions • ”Starts Drugs” to ”Joins Gang” Pattern Matching Explanation Building Time-Series Analysis Logic Models Cross-Case Synthesis

10. Logic Models • Individual-level • One case = one person • Trace one person’s path through the model • Organizational-level • One case = one organization • Program level • One case = one government program/reform • Final goal of a reform? Continuous improvement… Pattern Matching Explanation Building Time-Series Analysis Logic Models Cross-Case Synthesis

11. Cross-Case Synthesis • Said before… • Theoretical replication (different treatment - different outcome?) • Literal replication (same treatment - same outcome?) • Large number of cases – quantitative analysis • Modest number of cases – qualitative analysis • Word tables (?) • Argumentative interpretation Pattern Matching Explanation Building Time-Series Analysis Logic Models Cross-Case Synthesis