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Demographic Trends, Characteristics, and Projections for Texas and Region One

This report highlights the demographic trends and characteristics of Texas, including population growth, racial and ethnic composition, children's characteristics, and educational attainment. Relevant data and projections are provided.

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Demographic Trends, Characteristics, and Projections for Texas and Region One

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  1. Demographic Trends, Characteristics, and Projections for Texas and Region One Region One Education Service Center Regional Advisory Council Meeting Laredo, TX February 16, 2018 @TexasDemography

  2. Key points • Texas is growing fast and by a lot, 50% from natural increase. • Urban core growing the most and suburban ring counties growing the fastest. • Many rural counties continue to lose population. • Population growth driven by younger Latinos. • Children in poverty most substantial in the urban core counties and in the lower RGV. • Percent children in poverty greatest in lower RGV. • Children who do not speak English at home most substantial in urban core counties and lower RGV. • Percent children who do not speak English at home greatest in lower RGV. • Substantial divide between Hispanics and other race/ethnic groups in educational attainment and income. • Trends in educational attainment suggest increasing percent of labor force aged population has post-secondary education.

  3. Texas is experiencing significant growth.

  4. Growing States, 2000-2017 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count, 2017 Population Estimates.

  5. Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2016 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates

  6. Estimated Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010 to 2016 96 counties lost population over the 6 year period. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates

  7. Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2016 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates

  8. Components of Population Change by Percent in Texas, 1950-2010 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

  9. Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2015-2016 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates. *Among Counties with 10,000 or more population in 2016. 8

  10. Top Counties for Numeric Growth in Texas, 2015-2016 9 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates.

  11. Estimated Percent of Total Net-Migrant Flows to and From Texas and Other States, 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016. ACS Migration Flows, 2015

  12. Texas continues to diversify.

  13. Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, • 2000, 2010, and 2016 11 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000, 2010 Decennial Census and 2016 Population Estimates

  14. Racial and Ethnic Composition of Texas and Top 10 Most Populous Counties, 2015 12 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 Vintage Population Estimates

  15. Population Pyramids for Hispanics and Non-Hispanic Whites in Texas, 2010

  16. Annual Shares of Recent Non-Citizen Immigrants to Texas by World Area of Birth, 2005-2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS

  17. Unauthorized and Mexican Immigration, 2015

  18. Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 1980 to 2050 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1980 to 2010 Decennial Censuses; Texas Demographic Center, 2014 Population Projections, Half Migration Scenario

  19. Texas Children Texas is young, but aging.

  20. Population, Estimates, and Projections by Age Group, Texas, 2010-2050

  21. Estimated Population by Age Group, Texas, 2010 through 2016 Source: U.S. Census  Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates

  22. Children Characteristics, 2016, Texas and Region One Counties Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample, 2012-2016

  23. Estimated number of children less than 18 years of age, living below poverty, by county, Texas, 2012-2016 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample, 2012-2016

  24. Median Household Income, Texas Counties, 2016 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2016 5-Year Estimates

  25. Percent of children living in poverty and enrolled in Pre-K through 12, Texas Counties, 2011-2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample, 2011-2015

  26. Estimated number of children ages 5-17 years that do not speak English at home by county, Texas, 2012-2016 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample, 2012-2016

  27. Estimated percent of children ages 5-17 years that do not speak English at home by county, Texas, 2012-2016 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample, 2012-2016

  28. Education in Texas

  29. Educational Attainment, Persons Aged 25 Years and Older, Texas, 2011 and 2015 U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, 1-Year Samples, 2011 and 2015 * Years significantly different p<.05

  30. Percent Distribution of Educational Attainment of Persons Aged 25 Years and Older, Texas, 2008, 2011, and 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Samples, 2008-2015

  31. Educational Attainment, Texas, 2016 Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates, 2016.

  32. Educational Attainment of Persons Age 25 Years and Older by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Sample, 2015

  33. Earnings and Education Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year, 2015, B20004.

  34. Trends in Latino Education in the U.S. Over the past decade, Hispanic high school dropout rates have dropped. College enrollment among Hispanics is increased. There is still a large disparity between Hispanics and other groups in obtaining a bachelor’s degree. Hispanic college students attend public 2-year schools at higher rates than other groups. Hispanics are less likely than other groups to have student debt. Nearly all Latino youths (89%) believe a college degree is important for getting ahead in life. Source: Pew Research Center, 2016, 5 Facts about Latinos and Education and Between Two Worlds: How Young Latinos Come of Age in America, 2009

  35. Population Projections

  36. Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050 Source: Texas State Data Center, 2016 Preliminary Population Projections

  37. Projected and Estimated Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2020 Source: Texas State Data Center, 2016 Preliminary Population Projections and U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Population Estimates

  38. Projected Population of Persons Aged 0-18 Years by Race and Ethnicity, Texas 2010-2050 Source: Texas State Data Center 2016 Population Projections

  39. Projected change in total population aged 0-18 years, Texas counties, 2010-2030 Source: Texas Demographic Center 2016 Population Projections, 2000-2010 migration scenario.

  40. Projected percent change in total population aged 0-18 years, Texas counties, 2010-2030 Source: Texas Demographic Center 2016 Population Projections, 2000-2010 migration scenario.

  41. Projected Population of Persons Aged 0-18 Years by Race and Ethnicity, Texas 2010-2050 Source: Texas State Data Center 2016 Population Projections

  42. Projected Percent of Population of Persons Aged 0-18 Years by Race and Ethnicity, Texas 2010-2050 Source: Texas State Data Center 2016 Population Projections

  43. Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 to 2050, Region One Counties Source: Texas State Data Center 2016 Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario

  44. Population Change, 2010-2050, Region One Counties Source: Texas State Data Center 2016 Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario

  45. Projected Population, 0-18 Years, Region One Counties

  46. Numeric and Percent Change in Child Population (Ages 0-18 Years), Region One Counties

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