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CHPS-XEFS Ensemble Pre-Processing (EPP) Update

CHPS-XEFS Ensemble Pre-Processing (EPP) Update. Prepared by DJ Seo Feb 23, 2009. Purpose of the call. A number of decisions have been made in the CHPS-XEFS workshop in Jan, 2009, that may influence ongoing activities and near-term plans at EPP2 RFCs (AB-, MARFCs)

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CHPS-XEFS Ensemble Pre-Processing (EPP) Update

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  1. CHPS-XEFS Ensemble Pre-Processing (EPP) Update Prepared by DJ Seo Feb 23, 2009

  2. Purpose of the call • A number of decisions have been made in the CHPS-XEFS workshop in Jan, 2009, that may influence ongoing activities and near-term plans at • EPP2 RFCs (AB-, MARFCs) • MMEFS RFCs (MA-, NE- and OHRFCs) • Prospective MMEFS RFC(s) (SERFC) • Provide an update on EPP in the CHPS-XEFS implementation plan • Present analysis of GEFS forecasts • Some verification results • Prototype bias correction technique (James Brown)

  3. Purpose of the call (cont.) • Discussion • Overarching goal is to realize a flexible and smart EPP that can input all available “informative” forecasts and, through science algorithms and forecaster input and control, output the “most skillful” ensemble forcing forecasts cost-effectively • Presents needs and opportunities for closer and structured collaborations among RFCs, OHD and NCEP • Availability, acquisition, processing and analysis of archive of GEFS, SREF and other precipitation and temperature forecasts • Comparative verification with EPP ensembles • Hydrologic verification • Possible joint development of EPP components (“Other Ensembles”, “Merging, Joining & Blending”) • Anything else

  4. EPP User Interface Ens. User Interface XEFS Graphical User Interface OFS Flow Data MODs Web Inter-face IFP Ens. Streamflow Prediction System EPP3 ESP2 EnsPost EPG Hydro-meteorol. ensembles Raw flow ens. Ens. Post-Proc. Pp’ed flow ens. Product Generation Subsystem Ensemble/prob. products Ens. Pre-Processor HMOS Ensemble Processor Atmospheric forcing data Hydrologic Ensemble Hindcaster EVS Ensemble verification products Ensemble Verification System

  5. EPP3 – Existing components RFC Subsystem GFS Subsystem ENS PRE

  6. EPP3 – Proposed components Merging, Joining & Blending Short-Range Medium-Range Other Ensembles Long-Range

  7. Linking CHPS and XEFS • XEFS components that are important for operational forecasting CHPS • EnsPre (BOC) • ESP (BOC) • EnsPost (BOC) • EPP3, HMOS, EnsPost-XEFS (XEFS) • EPG (XEFS)

  8. EPP3 Calibration Component For calibrating EPP, use is made of different files that may vary from RFC to RFC. 95% of calibrating EPP is getting the data in the right place. After the calibration, the new parameters can be used to produce an ensemble hindcast with the EPP-hindcaster. The EPP hindcasts are in datacard file format. CHPS must be able to import these EPP datacard files to be able to run the hydrology in ensemble mode afterwards. The calibration of EPP will not be wrapped for linking it with FEWS for the time being. The hindcasting capability is available within CHPS-FEWS when EPP is wrapped and working, and also outside CHPS-FEWS with the EPP-hindcaster.

  9. EPP3 Timelines - Real-Time Component • Mar 1, 2009 - Produce (and freeze) EPP3 Version 1 • Integrates EPP2 and the GFS Subsystem • Newly adds the climate ensemble component that utilizes the CFS forecast • May 1, 2009 – EPP3 Adapter ready (may undergo additional development to allows MODs) • May-July, 2009 – Test EPP3 • Jul 1, 2009 - Investigate the application of MODS interface to allow a user to specify non-standard control file options at run time

  10. EPP3 Adapter From FEWS (non static) GA run on FFS PI-XML MAT&MAP To FEWS (non static) EPP3 Ensemble PI-XML FMAP & FMAT From FEWS (non static) PI-XML FMAP & FMAT & CPC GFS CFS static data qptf_param Pobs06, pfcst06 Data ingester, model adapter

  11. EPP3 Timelines - Calibration Component Feb 2009 – Converters ready Mar 2009 – Test importing hindcasts into FEWS

  12. GEFS 12-hr precipitation forecasts from 2000-2005 (no seasonal stratification) From Brown (2008) with help from Yuejian Zhu

  13. Ivan (09/18/04) Frances (09/09/04) Ivan

  14. Source: Ebert (2005)

  15. Forecast Reliability Reliability Diagrams identifies conditional bias Reliability P[O|F] Does the frequency of occurrence match your probability statement? Relative frequency of observations Forecasted probability Source: Hartmann (2006)

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