Risk Management

1. Risk Management Presented By: Prof. Dr. SamirAfifi

2. What Is “Risk”? “Risk is a condition in which there is a possibility of an adverse difference from a desired outcome that is expected … .” “… the threat that any event or action will adversely affect an organization’s ability to achieve its business objectives and execute its strategies.”

3. Why manage risks? It is a fact of life that chance events will occur and affect the outcome of your system or project • If anything can go wrong, it will! • Of things that could go wrong, the one that causes the most damage will occur!

4. Risk during the project Risk and the associated cost to address the risk, varies over the project life cycle • For initial phase there is high chance of risk events, but low cost impact • For final phase there is low chance of risk events, but cost impact is high Identifying and managing risks will greatly affect project success

5. What is Risk Management? Risk Management: Is the name given to a logical and systematic method of identifying, analyzing, treating and monitoring the risks involved in any activity or process. Next Mouse ‘Click’ to move on to the next slide

6. What is Risk Management? Risk Management: Is a methodology that helps managers make best use of their available resources Next Mouse ‘Click’ to move on to the next slide

7. What is Risk Management? A decision making tool, that can be used by everyone, to increase personal awareness by anticipating hazards & reducing the potential of injury or death, thereby increasing the probability of a long life.

8. What is Risk Management? Good management practice • Process steps that enable improvement in decision making • A logical and systematic approach • Identifying opportunities • Avoiding or minimizing losses Next Mouse ‘Click’ to move on to the next slide

9. Risk Management Definition of Terms Nine Terms • HAZARD: Any real or potential condition that can cause injury, illness, or death of personnel or damage to or loss of equipment, property, or mission degradation/ interferes with liberty.

10. Risk Management Definition of Terms Continued 2. RISK: Chance of hazard or bad consequences; exposure to chance of injury or loss. Risk level is expressed in terms of hazard probability and severity.

11. Risk Management Definition of Terms Continued 3. EXPOSURE: The frequency and length of time subjected to hazard. 4. PROBABILITY: The likelihood that and event will occur.

12. Risk Management Definition of Terms Continued • SEVERITY: The expected consequence of an event in terms of degree of injury, property damage, or other impairing factors (will it leave a mark, will I get in trouble, adverse publicity, etc.) that could occur.

13. Risk Management Definition of Terms Continued 6. CONTROLS: Actions taken to eliminate hazards or reduce the risk. 7. RISK ASSESSMENT: The identification and assessment of hazards.

14. Risk Management Definition of Terms Continued 8. RESIDUAL RISK: The level of risk remaining after controls have been identified and selected for hazards that may result in loss of life, injury or property damage. (Reduce the hazard / risk to an acceptable level or until it cannot be practically reduced further.)

15. Risk Management Definition of Terms Continued 9. RISK DECISION: The decision to accept or not accept the risk(s) associated with an action; made by the commander, leader, or individual responsible for performing that action.

16. Who uses Risk Management? • Finance and Investment • Insurance • Environment • Health Care • Public Institutions • Governments Risk Management • practices are widely used in public and the private sectors, • covering a wide range of activities or operations. These include: Next

17. Who uses Risk Management? Effective Risk Management • Is a recognized and valued skill. • Educational institutions have formal study courses and award degrees in Risk Management. The Risk Management process is well established. (International RM process standards.) Next

18. Who uses Risk Management? Risk Management isnow an integral part of business planning. Next

19. There are 7steps in the RM process How is Risk Management used? The Risk Management process steps are a broad guide for any organization, regardless of the type of business, activity or function. Next

20. Establish the context The basic process steps are: Identify the risks Analyze the risks Evaluate the risks Treat the risks Next

21. ‘Risk’ is dynamic and subject to constant change, so the process includes continuing: Monitoring and review and Communication & consultation Next

22. Establish the context The Risk Management process: The strategic and organizational context in which risk management will take place. For example, the nature of your business, the risks natural in your business and your priorities. Communicate & consult Next

23. Identify the risks The Risk Management process: • Defining types of risk, for instance, ‘Strategic’ risks to the goals and objectives of the organization. • Identifying the stakeholders, (i.e.,who is involved or affected). • Past events, future developments. Monitor and review Communicate & consult Next

24. Analyse the risks The Risk Management process: How likely is the risk event to happen? (Probability and frequency?) What would be the impact, cost or consequences of that event occurring? (Economic, political, social?) Monitor and review Communicate & consult Next

25. Evaluate the risks The Risk Management process: Rank the risks according to management priorities, by risk category and rated by probability and possible cost or consequence. Determine inherent levels of risk. Monitor and review Communicate & consult Next

26. Treat the risks The Risk Management process: • Develop and implement a plan with specific counter-measures to address the identified risks. • Consider: • Priorities (Strategic and operational) • Resources (human, financial and technical) • Risk acceptance, (i.e., low risks) Next

27. Treat the risks The Risk Management process: Document your risk management plan and describe the reasons behind selecting the risk and for the treatment chosen. Record allocated responsibilities, monitoring or evaluation processes, and assumptions on residual risk. Monitor and review Communicate & consult Next

28. Monitor and review The Risk Management process: In identifying, prioritising and treating risks, organisations make assumptions and decisions based on situations that are subject to change, (e.g., the business environment, trading patterns, or government policies). Risk Management policies and decisions must be regularly reviewed. Communicate & consult Next

29. Monitor and review TheRisk Management process: Risk Managers must monitor activities and processes to determine the accuracy of planning assumptions and the effectiveness of the measures taken to treat the risk. Methods can include data evaluation, audit, compliance measurement. Communicate & consult Next

30. Establish the context The Risk Management process: Identify the risks Communication & consultation Analyse the risks Monitoring and review Evaluate the risks Treat the risks Next

31. Risk management can be strategic, operational or tactical Strategic Strategic:Risks to Customs goals and objectives, e.g., prohibitions and restrictions, (social or economic), health,revenue, environment. - usually longer term strategies Next

32. Operational:Decisionsand action planson measures taken to deal with the assessed risks.Deployment of resources; monitoring and review. Operational - medium term strategies Next

33. Tactical:Used byofficers at their workplace, to deal with immediate situations, working withinset parameters andto approved procedures. Tactical - short term strategies Next

34. Why you should use Risk Management: • Economic benefits, by facilitating the movement of goods, ships, aircraft and people – when rated low risk. • Makes more effective use of existing skills and experience – giving better results. • Improves the quality of Customs controls – information and accountability. Next

35. Why you should use Risk Management: The process helps Administrations focus on priorities and in decisions on deploying limited resources to deal with the highest risks. Next

36. The first step is to look at your Customs context. • What is the role of Customs? • What are your national priorities and the expectations of the government and the public? • What is the nature of your operational environment? Where do you start? Next

37. How do you use it in Customs? • The next steps in the Risk Management process are to:- • Identify the risks • Analyse the risks; and • Evaluate the risks, • … but, if you are just starting on Risk Management planning: Who does this? Where does the information come from? Next

38. Responsibilities must be allocated: • Appoint a Risk Management champion with appropriate qualifications, including experience and analytical skills. • Form a Risk Management Committee, representative of operational areas. • Conduct Risk Management Workshops. • Determine operating procedures. Who does the Risk Assessment? Next

39. After identifying and analysing the risks, you can evaluate. • What is the likelihood of the risk event occurring? Evaluate the risks • Extreme • Very high • Moderate • Low • Negligible? • Almost certain • Likely • Moderate • Unlikely • Rare? What is the consequence if the risk event occurs? Next

40. You need to describe or to quantify exactly what the ‘Likelihood’ and ‘Consequence’ terms means to you. This helps in ensuring a consistent (unfailing) approach in future risk assessment and review and monitoring. It promotes a common understanding within the Administration. Evaluate the risks Next

41. After establishing ‘Likelihood’ and ‘Consequence’ you can use a table like this to set a level of risk. Evaluate the risks You must define what these risk levels mean to you. Next

42. Low and very low level risks can normally be accepted, subject to on-going monitoring. All other risks are included in the management plan. The plan catalogues the risks, the level of risk, and describes a treatment. The treatment is the action proposed, (and perhaps the resources allocated). Treating the risks Next

43. Development ofRisk Profiles Targetedselections Treating the risks Industry audits Physicalexamination Randomexaminations Complianceimprovement Next

44. Risk Profiles are developed as a means of putting risk management into practice at the Operational level. Treating the risks • A Risk Profile is normally specific to a Customs office. It describes: • The risk areas • Assessment of the level of risk • The countermeasures adopted • Activation date and review dates • Means of measuring effectiveness. Next

45. Using the profile information, consignments of goods, means of transport and people are targeted. The profile information is used as the basis for Selection Criteria. Treating the risks Documents received and processed by Customs, i.e., cargo and passenger manifests, goods declarations, are compared against the Selection Criteria Selection Criteria Next

46. Selection Criteria Selected movements Documentsand Data Treating the risks Selections are made by manual checks of documents, or by using automated systems. Selected transactions or movements are subject to the actions detailed in the profile or plan, e.g., physical examination, audit, etc. Next

47. The initial assessment made of the existence and level of risks must be evaluated on a regular basis. You need to measure the effectiveness of risk profiles and update as necessary. Monitor & Review • Reliable reporting of examination results • Compliance measurement activities • Feedback from the business community • Results analysis and data comparisons Next

48. Using Risk Management The starting point is the Action Plan: • Allocate responsibilities, e.g., a Risk Management Champion and a working party. • Evaluate how Risk Management processes can be best applied in your national environment. • Survey existing skills and do a training needs assessment. • Catalogue existing sources of data or information that can help in identifying risks. Next

49. Using Risk Management • Flow chart existing processes. • Communicate and consult – within Customs, with other Agencies, the trading community and transport industry. • Obtain IT tools or set up processes for effectively operating a selectivity system. • Provide training in profiling/selectivity skills. • Test and gain confidence in the Risk Management process. Next

50. شكرا Thanks Thank You