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Penn State Weather Camps

Penn State Weather Camps. Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines. Climatology Forecast = averages for today Persistence Forecast = yesterday’s values. Basic Forecast Guidelines. Climatology – Persistence – Modified Persistence What causes temp to change ? C loud cover : D ay Vs. N ight

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Penn State Weather Camps

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  1. Penn State Weather Camps Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines

  2. Climatology Forecast = averages for today • PersistenceForecast = yesterday’s values Basic Forecast Guidelines

  3. Climatology – Persistence – Modified Persistence • What causes temp to change? • Cloud cover: • Day Vs. Night • Precipitation: • When it rains T’s tend to be higher/lower? Why? • Windand Fronts: • Direction • N vs. S • Speed • Day Vs. Night Basic Forecast Guidelines

  4. What causes rain? • Need clouds! • Will any ole cloud do? • Moisture supply • Bodies of H20 – Moisture content of air (Td) • Upward motion: • How affect clouds/precip.? • Mechanisms for “lift” • Fronts – Topography – Low Pressure – Jet stream dist. • Intability (convection): • Warm down low … cold up high! Basic Forecast Guidelines

  5. Climatology – Persistence – Modified Persistence • Extrapolation/trend Forecast = Look upstream to see what the wind’s bringing in ! • Satellite IR - Satellite VIS - Radar - sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 • Thunderstorms/Moist Convection • Triggers ? • Fuel • LI • Cape Basic Forecast Guidelines

  6. The “Models” • Simulate future state of atmosphere • Higher resolution / lower resolution • The “Models” • Lower Res. (GFS) • Higher Res. (NAM) • Higher Res. (HRRR) • Clouds Forecasting … • Soundings • Cloud forecasting I • Cloud forecasting II – NAM • Cloud forecasting II – HRRR Basic Forecast Guidelines

  7. Your competition !!! • The National Weather Service • The Weather Channel • Accuweather • The guy or gal to your left and right 

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