World Bank Urban Core Course Preparing an Economic and Strategic Vision for a City 4 May 1999 Presented by Dr. Nigel Har

1. World Bank Urban Core Course Preparing an Economic and Strategic Vision for a City 4 May 1999 Presented by Dr. Nigel Harris

2. Preparing an Economic and Strategic Vision for a City • The implications of “globalization” and decentralization for city management – planning in an open world. • Understanding the City economy – to achieve a SWOT analysis: strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats.

3. Preparing an Economic and Strategic Vision for a City • The speed of economic restructuring in an open system - deindustrialization and inner city crisis of the 1970s. Contrast Hong Kong – industrialization and deindustrialization in 50 years, without unemployment or urban dereliction. • The hidden economy – Mumbhai’s textile industry; Lima and 60% of the economy unseen. Managing the economy without data.

4. Preparing an Economic and Strategic Vision for a City Trends in big cities today: • Continuing deindustrialization – dispersal of industry and populations; the emergence of major economic regions – the Valley of Mexico; Mumbhai-Pune-Nasik; the Pearl River Delta. • The emergence of the servicing economy – for example, London.

5. Urban logistics and global manufacturing – Hong Kong’s Li and Fung `Li and Fung is a spider’s web of manufacturing in 23 countries, with operations not only in various parts of South-East Asia but also in Latin America, Eastern Europe, the Caribbean and Mauritius.`Mr Fung explains how the system works. A foreign company will come to him with a modest product -–a ball pen, for example, or a simple dress – and ask him to find out where it can be made more cheaply…Mr Fung’s people set out to find out not only a source of ever-cheaper labour but also somewhere safe from trade restrictions on Chinese production. Take that simple dress. The yarn may be spun in Korea, the fabric woven in Taiwan, the zips bought in Japan and the garment part-finished in China before it passed through a final stitching factory in Indonesa…`Li and Fung has a network of 7,500 regular suppliers, employing an average of 200 workers apiece. In other words, about one and a half million workers..’The Economist, 20/6/98,The central role of the city is in organizing the world economy.

6. What kinds of services are the emerging basis of the city economy? • Finance and producer services – the Central Business District • Trade – the largest employer in developing countries: wholesale, retail, warehousing, transport, street sellers. • Hotels and restaurants – Istanbul and McDonalds

7. Preparing an Economic and Strategic Vision for a City • Information industries – data loading, processing, software programming – Cd. Juarez, Bangalore, Shenzhen, Manila (Walt Disney cartoons; British criminal records) – immense potential (airline ticketing and accounting, bank transactions, real estate transactions etc.

8. Preparing an Economic and Strategic Vision for a City • Nontradeables that becomes exports – • medical services – Bogota eye surgery; Tijuana and aging America; • education – using universities as export industries;

9. Preparing an Economic and Strategic Vision for a City • culture – London and 215,000 employed; • sport - “festivalization” – Barcelona

10. Preparing an Economic and Strategic Vision for a City • The key role of the transport system – city junctions. • The mutual reinforcement effect – culture and finance; transport accessibility; key role in the servicing economy of a livable city – public order, managed traffic, clean water and waste disposal etc.

11. Preparing an Economic and Strategic Vision for a City Developing a city strategy - ``structural change’ and adaptability. • The three measures of change over time • changes in the composition of output of goods and services (what is expanding, what is contracting); • in the distribution of the labour force;© in the geographical distribution – concentration and dispersal. • The city support services.

12. Preparing an Economic and Strategic Vision for a City • The problems of “aggregation” – Hong Kong’s “electrical and electronic equipment” – but in reality just transistor radios. • The importance of observation – eg the Mexican border and medical services; Madras and leather garments.

13. Preparing an Economic and Strategic Vision for a City • The projection of trends and scenarios – identifying the city’s strengths and weaknesses. • Locating the city in the global context – the threats and opportunities: eg Mercosur, NAFTA, the unification of Europe (Rotterdam’s Rotul); East Asian crisis • Location the city in the national context – changes in government policy, interest and exchange rate changes, investment projects

14. Preparing an Economic and Strategic Vision for a City • The importance of collaboration, pooling knowledge – the business associations know fragments of the micro economy better than any economist can. • The idea of the City Forum – government, business associations, trade unions, political parties, NGOs, universities, community organisations and concerned citizens.

15. Preparing an Economic and Strategic Vision for a City • The emergence of “consensus planning” – the politics of collaboration replace the technically expert Master Plan, scenarios statutory direction etc. • Flexibility and rigidity – operating in a global context

16. Preparing an Economic and Strategic Vision for a City • Institutional supports – Economic Development Corporations; Economic Development Units in City Hall • The problem of data – the City Statistical Yearbook – for the officials, citizens, for promotion - a precondition for transparency, accountability and participation

17. Preparing an Economic and Strategic Vision for a City • Research and monitoring – city institutes (Shanghai Economic Development Institute; Nagoya Urban Improvement Centre); Chambers of Commerce and Partnership research work; independent institutes – Bogota’s Siglo XXI. • The city as a concentration of intelligence – and how to organize it for effective economic management

18. Preparing an Economic and Strategic Vision for a City - Breakout questions 1.What do you think the economic strengths and weaknesses of your city are? 2.What kinds of export services are likely to be developed in your city in the foreseeable future? 3.What in your view are the key issues in the economic environment likely to affect your city? 4.What in your view are the key issues on the national economic environment affecting your city?