The Changing Southern Forest Landscape What Might It Mean for Forest Owners & Service Providers?

1. The Changing Southern Forest Landscape What Might It Mean for Forest Owners & Service Providers? John G. Greis U.S. Forest Service

2. The South and Southern Forests are Changing… • Population • Areal Extent • Location • Ownership & Objectives • Forest Health • Manageability • Markets

3. Forest area and ownership

4. Forest Area and Ownership - South Source: SFRA, 2002

5. Ownership Distribution U.S. Source: N.W.O. Survey

6. Forest Area by Ownership Group - South Source: SFRA

7. Forest Type Changes - South Reflects an ongoing set of dynamics: natural succession, management, land use changes… future indicates loss of natural area, increase in plantations. Source: SFRA

8. Population—U.S. and South Source: SFRA, 2002

9. Southern Residents Are: • Wealthier • Better educated • More non-white • Less rural • Less blue-collar • …….Than in 1980…… • Very similar to rest of USA Source: SFRA; So. WUI Assessment

10. Private Forest Land and Owners1953 - 2003

11. Why do they own forestland? Source: N.W.O. Survey

12. Relationships between Landholding Size and Ownership Objectives Source: N.W.O. Survey

13. Relationship between Landholding Size and Management Plans Source: N.W.O. Survey

14. Southern Forest Owners: • 5 million • Increasingly absentee • 29% white collar; 20% retirees • 6% farmers (down from 67% 50 yrs ago) • Diverse management objectives • Mostly do not seek management advice • Small % control more than 1/3 of all timberland • Vary in how they prefer to receive information Source: SFRA

15. Southern Family Forest Landowner Objectives (2006 Focus Groups) • Family Legacy and Inheritance • Investment and Income Generation • Pride of Ownership • Recreation (Family &Friends) • Wildlife Watching/Hunting

16. What About the Future?

17. Projected change in South’s population 2000 – 2020 Source: So. WUI Assessment

18. 2020 Forecast ….Southern Residents Will Be: • Increased by 24 million • More urban • Older • More Hispanic and African-American • Just more than 50% White Source: So. WUI Assessment

20. Range of Forecast Changes U.S. SouthWear, 2006 (in Draft)

21. Urbanization Outcomes • Smaller parcel sizes • More difficult management (e.g. smoke) • More recreational pressure • Conversion to non-forest • Economic disincentives to own and manage • More biocentric ownerships and citizenry • More public resistance to harvests • More local regulations and ordinances (346 in 2000 vs. 141 in 1992 in South) Source: SFRA; So. WUI Assessment

22. David Wear Southern Research Station—USFS Research Triangle Park, North Carolina John Greis Southern Region—USFS Tallahassee, Florida

23. What is the SFFP? A two-year project that will use technical forecasts and expert analysis to examine the potential futures of southern forests and their services…

24. Who? • US Forest Service • Southern Group of State Foresters • Other resource agencies • Universities • NGO’s/Associations • Anyone who is interested…

26. Bioenergy Invasive species Ownership Changes Climate Change Fire Taxes Water Wildlife/Forest Communities Socio-economics Regional Meta Issues

27. Anticipated SFFP Outputs • Final sub-regional reports • Regional meta-issue reports • Forecast and Analysis report • Regional summary report • Data sets and models

28. The Great Challenge: • Assist landowners having diverse, multiple and often non-commodity objectives • Influence public opinion on forests and forest management • Engage local governments, planners, engineers and policymakers • Contribute relevant and professionally prepared information to all of the above

29. Thank You….. John Greis U.S. Forest Service jgreis@fs.fed.us