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Splitting Range, Positioning, and Throwing in Runs Saved

This research explores the existing range and positioning system in baseball defense and proposes a new system that separates range, positioning, and throwing into separate components. The new system aims to provide a better understanding of why fielders perform well or poorly and credit/debit individuals on defensive shifts. The research includes calculations for each component and presents results for different positions and teams.

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Splitting Range, Positioning, and Throwing in Runs Saved

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  1. 2016 SABR Analytics Conference Scott Spratt scott@baseballinfosolutions.com Splitting Range, Positioning, and Throwing in Runs Saved

  2. The Existing Range andPositioning System Formerly called the Plus/Minus System Relies on batted ball location and velocity data Credits or debits fielders relative to how often similar plays had been made in recent seasons

  3. The Existing Range andPositioning System Example: A ball is hit in the third base-shortstop hole at 55 mph Expected Out Rate = 60% If Made = (1.0 – 0.6) = 0.4 plays of credit If Unmade = (0.0 – 0.6) = -0.6 plays of credit

  4. Advantages of the Existing System Credit proportional to difficulty Naturally centers Easily translates to run values Captures multiple facets of defense (e.g. range, throwing)

  5. Limitations We Wanted to Address in this Research Want to be able to know why a fielder is performing well or poorly (e.g. range, throwing) Credit/debit individuals on defensive shifts (e.g. Brett Lawrie problem)

  6. Splitting Range, Positioning, and Throwing into Separate Components You could model the existing Plus/Minus System like: A D Where A = Expected Out Ratio given the batted ball characteristics D = Play is Made (1.0) or Play is Not Made (0.0)

  7. Splitting Range, Positioning, and Throwing into Separate Components The new system will have two additional midpoints: A B C D Where A = Expected Out Ratio given the batted ball characteristics B = Expected Out Ratio given the batted ball characteristics and the initial positioning of the fielders C = Expected Out Ratio once (if) the ball is fielded D = Play is Made (1.0) or Play is Not Made (0.0)

  8. Splitting Range, Positioning, and Throwing into Separate Components Here is how each component is calculated: A B C D Positioning Plus/Minus = B – A Range Plus/Minus = C – B Throwing Plus/Minus = D – C RPT Plus/Minus = D – A, analogous to existing Plus/Minus

  9. Splitting Range, Positioning, and Throwing into Separate Components A BCD

  10. Splitting Range, Positioning, and Throwing into Separate Components Variables: A Batted Ball Type (groundball or air ball) Batted Ball Velocity Batted Ball Location Batter Speed

  11. Splitting Range, Positioning, and Throwing into Separate Components A B CD

  12. Splitting Range, Positioning, and Throwing into Separate Components 2B Variables: B Batted Ball Type (groundball or air ball) Batted Ball Velocity Fielder/Batted Ball Distance Batter Speed SS 3B 1B

  13. Splitting Range, Positioning, and Throwing into Separate Components AB C D

  14. Splitting Range, Positioning, and Throwing into Separate Components Variables: C Distance from Throw Base Time to Throw

  15. An Issue with Positioning Plus/Minus 2B What if the Expected Out Ratio for shortstops on this play was 90% and the Expected Out Ratio for second basemen was 70%? SS 3B 1B

  16. Eliminating Over-Credits to Positioning To prevent this over-crediting of individual positioning, we will instead calculate Positioning Plus/Minus = Team B – Team A

  17. Eliminating Over-Credits to Positioning Here is how each component is calculated: A B C D Positioning Plus/Minus = Team B – Team A Range Plus/Minus = C – B Throwing Plus/Minus = D – C RPT Plus/Minus = D – Team A

  18. Results Some simplifications in these results: Looks at only groundballs Applies a flat 0.75 run value for the hit/out difference

  19. Range, Positioning, and Throwing Runs Saved - SS Leaders 2015

  20. Range, Positioning, and Throwing Runs Saved - 2B Leaders 2015

  21. Range, Positioning, and Throwing Runs Saved - 3B Leaders 2015

  22. Range, Positioning, and Throwing Runs Saved - 1B Leaders 2015

  23. Range, Positioning, and Throwing Runs Saved - P Leaders 2015

  24. Range, Positioning, and Throwing Runs Saved - C Leaders 2015

  25. Range, Positioning, and ThrowingRuns Saved - Team Leaders 2015

  26. Positioning in ShiftsTeam Leaders/Trailers 2015

  27. Component Correlations From 2013-15, Excludes Catchers

  28. Component Correlations From 2013-15

  29. Acknowledgments Ben Jedlovec and Joe Rosales John Dewan Everyone at Baseball Info Solutions

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