(P rogramme of R esearch O n Climate Change V ulnerability , I mpacts and A daptation )

1. (Programme of Research On Climate Change Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation) Professor Martin Parry Grantham Institute, Imperial College London Chair of Pro-Via Interim Scientific Steering Committee

2. THE ‘PROBLEM: Climate change: Supposedly the ‘biggest’ challenge…but no fully coordinated scientific means of confronting it. World Climate Impacts and Responses Programme (WCIRP) no longer providing a coordinating role within the WCP [World Climate Programme = WCRP, WCIRP, WC Data Prog, WC Applications Prog] Adaptation, long ignored (even treated as admission of ‘failure’, up to c. 2000), but now a key part of international climate policy: The 2010 UNFCCC Cancun agreement included this target for the Fund: “a total of $30 billion in fast start finance up to 2012 and the intention to raise $100 billion in long-term funds by 2020”.

3. The Impacts ‘gap Adaptation financed: Emissions targets Bear cost adapt mitigate

4. What was needed for VIA: • A single research programme, focused on impacts and response to climate change. (A counterpart to WCRP) • Able to deliver the high quality information being increasingly requested by policy-makers. • Able to react to policy requests with due urgency. • 4. Capable of prioritising research and communicating this to governments and international agencies (and thus also helping fund the research)

5. Objectives of PRO-VIA: • Coordinate research on climate impacts, vulnerability and adaptation • Guide investment in research • Communicate scientific information to governments and international agencies 4. Build research capacity, especially in developing countries

6. How is PRO-VIA governed? • Organised by the scientific community • Scientific Steering Committee (SSC) composed of scientists • A joint initiative of UNEP, WMO, and UNESCO. • Secretariat in UNEP.

7. Steps toward establishment: • 1st (interim) PROVIA SSC meeting November 2010, Geneva. Start-up funding from UNEO • First activities started January 2011. • 2nd (interim) PROVIA SSC meeting June 2011, Geneva • WMO Congress (June 2011) approved that: • i) PROVIA replaces WCIRP as VIA component in the World Climate Programme • ii) PROVIA is source of VIA research to the Global Framework of Climate Services

8. PROVIA GOVERNANCE AND OPERATIONAL STRUCTURE Sponsoring Organizations “UN Joint Programme” Managing Agent – UNEP + Sponsoring Partners

9. PRO-VIA’s initial workplan includes 4 Activities: • i) Develop a prioritised international agenda for research on VIA., and communicate to governments and international agencies, • ii) Provide scientific information on VIA to the UNFCCC and similar bodies, especially information that will enable more effective adaptation. • iii) A biennial conference to improve the coherence of VIA research • iv) Improve the robustness of VIA assessments, by revising guidance on research methods.

10. Activity 1. Develop, and communicate to governments and international agencies, a prioritised international agenda for research on VIA. • Experts’ prioritisation + policy-makers prioritisation → integrate. • Prep docs → Foresight Panel of experts (June 2011) + policymakers (Oct 2011); review (end 2011). • Communicate via meetings with UNFCCC, governments, meetings (eg CoP Durban December 2011 (?): Planet under Pressure London, March 2012; 2nd Intern, Adaptn Conf, Arizona, May 2012; Rio, June 2012).

11. Four most pressing (policy) questions for future research to address: • What adaptation will be needed between now and 2030 to cope with early unmitigated impacts.? • Where is vulnerability greatest? • What are the likely unavoided climate impacts beyond 2030? • How can adaptive capacity be built to confront these impacts?

12. Activity 2. Provide scientific information on VIA to the UNFCCC and similar bodies, especially information that will enable more effective adaptation. • PROVIA is now an official partner in the Nairobi Work Programme. Next: A role in (?): a) the Adaptation Committee. b) development of procedures and guidance leading to the development of National Adaptation Plans. c) development of Work Programme to Consider Approaches to Address Loss and Damage. d) the Review of the Adequacy of the Long-Term Global Goal.

13. Activity 3. Improve the coherence of the VIA research community, by developing improved interaction. • Second Adaptation Conference, May 2012, Arizona http://www.adaptation.arizona.edu/adaptation2012. • PROVIA website launched September 2012 • Next step: • Web-based Newsletter

14. Activity 4. Improve the robustness of VIA assessments, by developing revised guidance on research methodology. - Revision in progress, authors assigned, 1st author mtg October 2011 • Draft for review mtg (March 2012) + international review Apr-Aug 2012 • Completion October 2012

16. Proposed New Activities • Methods of building capacity in adapting to climate change. • Methods of developing adaptation and other socio-economic scenarios.. • Monitoring current vulnerability and adaptation, and avoiding potential surprises.

17. Next challenge: • Sufficient support for a full-time Secretariat……and funding of the proposed activities

18. Summing up. The purpose of PRO-VIA: • To provide international coordination of research on vulnerability, impacts adaptation to climate change; • To prioritize research; help it access funds; • To communicate new knowledge about adaptation to governments and agencies. • Organised by the scientific community; • With a secretariat funded and based in UNEP

19. THANK YOU!