Reporting on Accuracy for National Accounts

1. Reporting on Accuracy for the National Accounts Helena Kaplan, StatisticsSweden

2. Disposition • Introduction • Quality concept for official statistics in Sweden • Some general features of the National Accounts • Describing the Accuracy of GDP • Conclusions and lessons learned

3. Qualityframework for officialstatistics in Sweden • One single template for qualityreportswhichare to bereleasedwiththe release of officialstatistics – makesthingssimple for theusers • One single qualityconcept • 5 main qualitycomponentscorrespond to principles 11-15 in the ES Code of Practice • Appliesto allstatistical products regardless of the design • Determinesthestructure for thequalityreport • Relevancedescribesthepurpose of thestatistics and thecontent of thestatistics (thetargetcharacteristics to beestimated) • Accuracy of theestimatedtargetcharacteristics in terms of Overallaccuracy, Sources of uncertainty and Preliminary statisticscompared to finalstatistics

4. Some general features of the (Swedish) National Accounts • The detailed annual and the less detailed quarterly compilations are based partly on different sources and methods • Both use a large number of sources and involves a variety of methods • Compilations from the production side and from the expenditure side are analysed and balanced to arrive at a single GDP estimate • The annual estimates are published with a delay of 21 months • Quarterly compilations with a delay of 2 months provide estimates for the remaining quarters and are the basis for a quarterly disaggregation of the annual estimates • The quarterlyestimatesaresubject to frequent revisions

5. DescribingAccuracy of GDP • Thestatisticaldiscrepancy – thedifferencebetweentheproduction side and expenditure side estimates – over a number of periodsis used as an indicator of uncertainty • It is a meaningfulindicatoronly to theextentthattheproduction and expenditureestimatesareindependent • There is a clearindication of uncertaintythatusersshouldtakeaccount of • Eachsource of uncertainty is assessed for itsinfluence on Overallaccuracy (small, moderateorlarge), withmodelassumptions and measurmentbeingthesourcesregarded as contributingthemost to uncertainty • Data on revisionsalsoadviceusers no to put to muchattention to a single quarterlyestimate

6. Conclusions and lessonslearned • Although measures of uncertainty are unavailable, it is possible provide quantitative as well as qualitative information that are relevant for users evaluation of the accuracy of a complex secondary statistics like the national accounts • The information can be provided in same format and using the terminology as for a traditional statistical survey, which improve accessibility and clarity for users of various statistical domains • The production of a quality declaration brings together national accountants, methodologists and subject area statisticians, which is one way stimulate a long-term beneficial cooperation between the various competences • Focusing on the accuracy of total GDP only the current quality declaration cannot satisfy all needs, but adding further details will inevitable increase the complexity of the document. Therefore, the extensive inventories describing different components/domains of the accounts are necessary for a broad understanding of the basis for the accounts.

7. Thankyou!