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CTS-SEMINAR – EUROPEAN AND NATIONAL FREIGHT DEMAND MODELS – STOCKHOLM, 1 MARCH 2011

Freight modelling in the Netherlands: Past, present & a rough guide to the future. CTS-SEMINAR – EUROPEAN AND NATIONAL FREIGHT DEMAND MODELS – STOCKHOLM, 1 MARCH 2011. Contents. Policy environment Contents Process Development of modelling in NL Past Present Future Conclusions.

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CTS-SEMINAR – EUROPEAN AND NATIONAL FREIGHT DEMAND MODELS – STOCKHOLM, 1 MARCH 2011

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  1. Freight modelling in the Netherlands: Past, present & a rough guide to the future CTS-SEMINAR – EUROPEAN AND NATIONAL FREIGHT DEMAND MODELS – STOCKHOLM, 1 MARCH 2011 Lori Tavasszy

  2. Contents • Policy environment • Contents • Process • Development of modelling in NL • Past • Present • Future • Conclusions Note: focus is on models developed by the Ministry of Infrastructure & Environment Freight modelling in the Netherlands

  3. Freight policy: issues in the Netherlands • Forecasting container growth & infrastructure investment • Mismatch between levels of detail required & delivered for local environmental effects • Response of carriers and shippers to pricing • City logistics: regional and local models unconnected Freight modelling in the Netherlands

  4. Demand side Policy and politics New issues Discourse dynamics Analysis closer to politics Paradox Policy makers call for simplicity CBA guidelines call for evidence Supply side New opportunities data capture/ computing power models evolve Lock-in due to public scrutiny Maintenance focus Little experimentation Dynamics in demand and supply side • Pressure on modelling suite from legislation (EU and national) • Growing frustration about limited capabilities to study impacts Freight modelling in the Netherlands

  5. ‘80 ‘90 ‘00 Technical innovations Trends More complex society Legal norms in planning Policy needs Applying “state of the art” More detail & comprehensive Trustworthiness & manageability Modelling developments More complex Larger models & data requirements Standardisation models & data Accuracy Advantage Widely applicable Consistency Disadvantage Black box Time consuming & vulnerable for mistakes Loss of flexibility Long waves in modelling after: KiM, 2010 Freight modelling in the Netherlands

  6. The past: from TEM to SMILE (70’s-00’s) Lessons learnt • Innovative approaches need large effort to launch and retain • Apply a cyclical approach to model development (plan & fund) • Keep specification and implementation close to allow iteration • Recognize, isolate, communicate empirical challenges production/consumption (tonnes/year/region) trade (gravity) model (P/C matrix per commodity) inventory chain model (O/D matrix per commodity) supernetwork model (multimodal network choice) Freight modelling in the Netherlands

  7. Platform for model development using open source approach Basis for further development of various modules Close co-opetition: Rijkswaterstaat, TNO, NEA,Significance, OmniTrans to create the new open platform Timing: Specification & estimation Fall 2010 Baseline model ready Spring 2011 The present: back to the basics with BasGoed Freight modelling in the Netherlands

  8. Present model architecture around Basgoed Economic forecast NL (SMILE) • P/C matrix edges • import / export / transit • Basgoed • Distribution • modal split model • network data per mode • O/D matrices by mode • accessibility change • at P/C level Regional economic models • baseyear O/D matrices • per mode National assignment models: NMS, Routgoed, BIVAS Regional road assignment models: RGM / NRM network flows NL Freight modelling in the Netherlands

  9. Basgoed approach and preliminary results • Level of detail: NUTS 3, NSTR 1 digit (10 commodities) • Distribution model • Gravity model, simple exponential deterrence function on MS logsums • Modal split model • Aggregate MNL, simple cost function, mode/region specific ASC • Performance • Satisfactory fit with observations • Elasticities modal split plausible, distribution lower than expected • Current status: software implementation of platform Freight modelling in the Netherlands

  10. The future: open innovation? • Roadmap for NL freight models • Contents • freight growth & congestion • mainports and the economy • improving representation of logistics • Simplicity & transparence • Agree on architecture • Open source • Functions • compass for national model development • framework for scientific programming, data acquisition, model investments, communication to policy makers Freight modelling in the Netherlands

  11. Roadmap innovation topics Freight modelling in the Netherlands

  12. Conclusions • Contents vs. process • Freight models follow cyclical trend: from simple (70-80s) to complex (90s to 00s) to simple (10s to ??) • Lessons learnt from the SMILE project: managing complexity in contents and software • Current stream of work: back to basics with BasGoed • Basic platform allowing new modules to be included • Calibrated models for distribution and modal split • Future: roadmap as basis for investment and, hopefully, colaborative development Freight modelling in the Netherlands

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