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WWRP/WGNE Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research. Beth Ebert, JWGFVR co-chair WGNR meeting, Geneva, 8-10 Feb 2011. Aims. Verification component of WWRP Develop and promote new verification methods Training on verification methodologies
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WWRP/WGNE Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research Beth Ebert, JWGFVR co-chair WGNR meeting, Geneva, 8-10 Feb 2011
Aims • Verification component of WWRP • Develop and promote new verification methods • Training on verification methodologies • Ensure forecast verification is relevant to users • Encourage sharing of observational data • Promote importance of verification as a vital part of experiments • Promote collaboration among verification scientists, model developers and forecast providers • Collaborate with WGNE, WCRP, CBS
Working group members • Beth Ebert (BOM, Australia) • Laurie Wilson (CMC, Canada) • Barb Brown (NCAR, USA) • Barbara Casati (Ouranos, Canada) • Caio Coelho (CPTEC, Brazil) • Anna Ghelli (ECMWF, UK) • Martin Göber (DWD, Germany) • Simon Mason (IRI, USA) • Marion Mittermaier (Met Office, UK) • Pertti Nurmi (FMI, Finland) • Joel Stein (Météo-France) • Yuejian Zhu (NCEP, USA)
0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 SkillMAE Bias (mm) 0.1 0.05 0 -0.05 -0.1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Forecast (min) Sydney 2000 FDP sprog
Sydney 2000 FDP TITAN EXTRAP
MAE Bias Sydney 2000 FDP Boundary position error
Beijing 2008 FDP Real Time Forecast Verification (RTFV) system Fast qualitative and quantitative feedback on forecast system performance in real time • Verification products generated whenever new observations arrive Ability to inter-compare forecast systems 3 levels of complexity • Visual (quick look) • Statistics (quantitative) • Diagnostic (more information)
Training In person Online
Reflectivity, cell tracks, T-storm strike probability Outer Beijing Beijing Precipitation, probability of precipitation Urban Beijing Wind gusts, lightning Domain and variables
Precipitation accumulation Forecasts Observations
Diagnostic verification (non-real time) Power spectral density Contiguous rain area (CRA) Intensity-scale Neighborhood methods Forecast quality metric (FQM)
Survey of BMB forecasters and FDP experts • Real time verification considered very useful • Forecasters preferred scatter plots and quantile-quantile plots • Experts wanted capability to drill down to more specific information • Web interface not user-friendly enough
B08FDP lessons for real time verification • Format and standardization of nowcasts products was critical to making a robust verification system • Difficult to compare "like" products that were produced with slightly different aims (e.g., QPF for warning vs hydrological applications) • Verification system design could be improved • Better display of forecasts with observations • User control of verification parameters for exploring results
SNOW-V10 • Verification plan • User-oriented verification for Olympic period of all forecasts, tuned to decision points of VANOC • Verification of parallel model forecasts for Jan to August 2010 • Nowcast and regional model verification • Rich dataset for user-oriented verification and research • Processing started
Sochi 2014 Standard verification Possible verification innovations: • Road weather forecasts • Real-time verification • Timing of events – onset, duration, cessation • Verification in the presence of observation uncertainty • Neighborhood verification of high-resolution NWP, including in time-height plane • Spatial verification of ensembles • User-oriented probability forecast verification
Publications Publications Recommendations for verifying deterministic and probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts Available on WWRP web site Coming soon: Recommendations for verifying cloud forecasts Later this year (?): Recommendations for verifying tropical cyclone forecasts
Publications January 2008 special issue of Meteorological Applications on forecast verification • Verification review paper authored by JWGFVR members • 18 contributed papers from participants in 2007 International Verification Methods workshop
Publications DVD from 2009 Helsinki Verification Tutorial Video and powerpoint lectures • Verification basics • Continuous verification • Categorical verification • Warnings verification • Probabilistic verification • Spatial verification • Statistical inference Available from WMO
Spatial Verification Method Intercomparison Project http://www.rap.ucar.edu/projects/icp International comparison of many new spatial verification methods Methods applied by researchers to same datasets (precipitation; perturbed cases; idealized cases) Subjective forecast evaluations Workshops: 2007, 2008, 2009 Weather and Forecasting special collection 13 papers on specific methods, 2 overview papers
Spatial Verification Method Intercomparison Project • Future variables • "Messy" precipitation • Wind • Cloud • Timing errors • Future datasets • MAP D-PHASE • SRNWP / European data • Nowcast dataset(s)?? • A model for verification test bed
Outreach http://www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/verification/ • Strong focus of the WG • EUMETCAL training modules completed (Nurmi, Wilson) • Verification web page • Sharing of tools • Tutorials (traveling and on-site) • ECMWF (Jan 2007) • South Africa (Sept 08) • Helsinki (June 2009)
International Verification Methods Workshops 4th Workshop – Helsinki 2009 Tutorial • 26 students from 24 countries • 3 days • Lectures, hands-on (took tools home) • Group projects - presented at workshop Workshop • ~100 participants • Topics: • User-oriented verification • Verification tools & systems • Coping with obs uncertainty • Weather warning verification • Spatial & scale-sensitive methods • Ensembles • Evaluation of seasonal and climate predictions
Workshop: New verification research Spatial methods applied to: Wind fields Ensemble forecasts http://www.space.fmi.fi/Verification2009/
Hit rate False alarm ratio Workshop: New verification research Diagnostics Extremes http://www.space.fmi.fi/Verification2009/
5th International Verification Methods Workshop • Melbourne, December 2011 • 3-day tutorial + 3-day scientific workshop • Additional tutorial foci • Verifying seasonal predictions • Brief intro to operational verification systems • Capacity building for FDPs/RDPs, SWFDP, etc.
New focus areas for JWGFVR research • Seamless verification – crossing space/time scales • Ensemble predictions • Warnings / extreme events, especially timing • Aviation • Multivariate verification – joint distributions
Future collaboration with WGNR • SNOW-V10 • Sochi 2014 • WENS? • SWFDP (Africa, SW Pacific, SE Asia) • Lake Victoria FDP • Intend to establish collaborations with SERA on • verification of tropical cyclone forecasts and other high impact weather warnings • Lake Victoria FDP