Assessing and managing change in food systems – what can economics contribute on zoonotic risks?

1. Jonathan Rushton, Barbara Häsler, Nicoline de Haan and Ruth Rushton LCIRAH Assessing and managing change in food systems – what can economics contribute on zoonotic risks? 6 July 2011 Liverpool, UK jrushton@rvc.ac.uk

2. Acknowledgements • Belen Otero (RVC), Olafur Oddergeirsson (FCC), Tessa Crilly (independent human health economist), David Dewar (FCC) – Salmonella team • Liz Redmond – FSA, UK • Wantanee Kalpravidh – FAO • Alma Yjro-Koskinen, Theo Knight-Jones • Katharina Stärk, Dirk Pfeiffer, Javier Guitian – RVC • Alan Dangour, Karen Lock, Richard Smith (LSHTM), Andrew Dorward, Deborah Johnston, Harry West (SOAS), Michael Heinrich (SoP) - LCIRAH LCIRAH

3. Introduction • Rapidly changing societies generating bigger demands for livestock products have historically created health problems • Our current rate of change has thrown up new challenges in terms of emerging and re-emerging diseases • Addressing these with adequate investments in health education, research and institutional development is a major challenge This is a societal resource allocation and socio-economic challenge LCIRAH

4. Introduction • How do we achieve stable and safe supplies of food? • It requires interdisciplinarity and intersectorial approaches • It requires a thorough understanding of: • Context in which diseases circulate – the value chain • Rules in which people in the value chain operate – institutional environment • Response of the people concerned – human behaviour LCIRAH

5. Getting to grips with the context- Value Chains and Risk LCIRAH

6. Basic livestock food system Feed Animals Animals Carcass Meat Meat Feed Inputs Production System Processing & marketing Transport Abattoir Preparation Consumer $, €, ¥ $, €, ¥ $, €, ¥ $, €, ¥ $, €, ¥ $, €, ¥ • Provides food • Moves money • Generates employment • People in the chains are GEOGRAPHICALLY DISPERSE – great likelihood of moral hazard LCIRAH

7. Livestock food systems and pathogens Pathogen Feed Inputs Production System Processing & marketing Transport Abattoir Preparation Consumer • In livestock food systems pathogens can: • be maintained • spread in both directions • be introduced from external sources LCIRAH

8. Livestock food systems and information Government working with the private sector Feed Inputs Production System Processing & marketing Transport Abattoir Preparation Consumer • Information in the livestock food systems: • can be transferred between people • can be hidden by people – MORAL HAZARD • can be made available by regulators outside the system – government, others?? LCIRAH

9. Livestock food systems and pathogens- where to intervene • Standard questions when examining an intervention: • Is the intervention technically feasible? • What is the intervention’s cost and effectiveness? • Is the intervention socially acceptable? LCIRAH

10. Livestock food systems and pathogens- where to intervene • Questions need to be added for complex food systems: • Can implementation of the intervention be verified within the food system by people affected? • i.e. Can moral hazard be reduced? • How will people’s decision making be affected by the intervention? • i.e. What do we understand of human behaviour? • What do we know of the rule breakers? LCIRAH

11. Why should we study livestock value chains for animal health measures? • A value chain is no different to a biological organism • It survives to support the livelihoods of the people who work in it and to feed the people who are its consumers • If a disease is put into a value chain the people within will react and modify their behaviour • In turn the people’s actions will affect how the chain functions and operates • Strong chains will manage and internalise disease risks LCIRAH

12. Why should we study livestock value chains for animal health measures? • Understanding how the livestock value chains modify and manage disease allows us to help see how our interventions can help a chain to recover as fast as possible • The rapid healing of a chain is vital to ensure that people who depend on the chain for income and food are affected as little as possible LCIRAH

13. Value chains and veterinarians • When working with livestock value chains with disease and those at risk of disease we need to think like veterinarians treating a sick animal • How can we make the chains disease free and healthy? • The outcome of such an approach benefits the people who: • work and generate an income in the chains • eat and use the livestock commodities supplied by the chains LCIRAH

14. Risk management in a value chain- the need for a people centred approach • People are no longer just the people affected by a disease • Lost income • Health • Death • People’s actions dictate how a disease: • Enters a society • How it spreads • How it is controlled LCIRAH

15. Environment Pathogen Pathogen Pathogen Host Host Environment Environment PEOPLE Inert & exogenous People Host People Classic view of animal diseases Classic risk assessment People centred risk assessment

16. Risk management in a value chain- the need for a people centred approach • With a people centred approach it becomes critical to understand people’s behaviour • Some of this will be dictated by: • Economic incentives • Institutional environment • Rules (official and informal) and their enforcement • Social, cultural and psychological factors LCIRAH

17. How can economics contribute to the investigations of the weak points in the food system? LCIRAH

18. SOCIAL/PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT INDIVIDUAL FACTORS • Family and social network • Rules and enforcement • Cultural practices • Informal/cultural codes/rules of behaviour • Economic drivers (private) • Rules of transactions • Methods of enforcement • Official rule structures • Methods and willingness to enfoce • Political environment • Availability and type of information • Physical attributes • Age • Gender • Size, weight • Ethnicity • Personal Characteristics • Personality Variables • Temperament • Self esteem • General health beliefs • General beliefs about risk-taking/offending • Resource base and livelihood options INDIVIDUAL ATTITUDES BELIEFS MOTIVATING FACTORS GROUP HELD ATTITUDES BELIEFS MOTIVATING FACTORS INDIVIDUAL/GROUP RISK BEHAVIOUR FOR SPREAD OF DISEASES Strong reward motivated – ‘conscious’ rule breaking e.g. monetary gain Less ‘conscious’/ignorant rule breaking e.g. culturally driven; lack of information

19. Data collection – Key issues • Looked at a complex system NOT a simple cause and effect pattern • The system is held together by beliefs and needs of the people and systems involved • Part of the system has different degrees of illicit behaviour • The outcome of the data collection and analysis is to simulate a DYNAMIC system in order to make PREDICTIONS LCIRAH

20. Data collection – the approach • Investigative • Relationship based • Question type • Attention to: Informal understanding and culture • Integration of quantitative and qualitative data with the use of: • Individual narratives and stories • Secondary and primary data sources that recognises previous and ongoing work and resource constraints • You cannot collect everything • Overall structured as a “systems analysis” LCIRAH

21. Lao PDR and China- Example of culturally related trade LCIRAH

22. Feedmills Parent Flock Egg Trays China Feed DOC Layer Unit Local Market Eggs and egg trays Lao PDR Thailand Vientiane Market Eggs and egg trays

23. Change in altitude (metres) from Vientiane to Luang Namtha, Lao PDR

24. Bringing the systems framework to lifeand the BELIEFS? LCIRAH

25. China Layer Unit Rules of the official authority? Local Market Lao PDR Bus Drivers Thailand Vientiane Market

26. Bringing the systems framework to lifeand the PEOPLE? LCIRAH

27. Input supplier Border crossing China Layer Unit Data collectors Local Market Local Market Bus Drivers Lao PDR Vientiane Market Thailand

28. Importance of people and behaviour • In complex food systems we need to understand what people are doing and why • Some of it will be economic • But other aspects need a better understanding of the rules they are working to – the institutional environment • These rules can be • Cultural norms • Private standards • Public regulation • And let’s not forget enforcement LCIRAH

29. BiosecurityCan economics make it a useful concept? LCIRAH

30. Biosecurity • What does biosecurity mean? • Bigger walls • Better procedures for entry • Cleaner animals • Cooperate with neighbours and trading partners • Let’s split bio-security into two components: • Bio-exclusion • Bio-containment • Then we will assess these using a New Institutional Economics framework LCIRAH

31. Bio-exclusion on the Border of Thailand with Lao PDR

32. Bio-exclusion • Bio-exclusion focuses on avoiding a biological agent entering a livestock population or contaminating a livestock product • It is not in the interest of the owners of the • livestock to infect their animals • livestock product to contaminate it • There is a strong private interest to exclude biological agents • Government support could be limited to education, research and possibly subsidies on critical infrastructure

33. Bio-containment • Once a biological agent infects an animal or contaminates livestock products attention needs to switch to CONTAINMENT • The presence of the biological agent can cause economic losses • Death of livestock • Reduced growth and production • Spoilage of livestock products • Poor markets if the livestock are known to be infected or a product is known to be contaminated

34. Bio-containment • Risk of a disease agent if/when it gets in • Surveillance – passive has to be the key • Response • reducing time from infection to detection and control is critical • the response measures need to be consistent, thorough and effective • Active participation of the farming community and the traders LCIRAH

35. Depopulation Disinfection Bio-containment in Thailand Close down risky business

36. Bio-containment • There are few private incentives for bio-containment • There are public incentives for bio-containment • The release of the biological agent could affect other businesses in the food chain • Food-borne pathogens and zoonotic diseases put human health at risk • Government investments to support bio-containment are well justified There is a strong role for the State in bio-containment

37. Some questions

38. Are food borne and zoonoses important? • Are we chasing the sparks from the fire? • Is the modern day epidemic not already with us?

39. How do zoonoses and food borne disease compare with malnutrition? • We know that around a billion are undernourished • Some estimate the undernourished to be closer to 2 billion if we take into account a lack of quality in the diet • The International Obesity Taskforce estimate that: • There are 1 billion adults overweight • 475 million obese • In total human population of around 6.7 billion between 2.5 to 3.5 billion are malnourished LCIRAH http://www.iaso.org/iotf/obesity/obesitytheglobalepidemic/

40. What is driving malnutrition? • Under nutrition is not due to a lack of food, it is due to poverty and poor distribution – even in places with hunger and starvation • Over nutrition? • Decades of policies looking for cheap foods? • Transfer of production and processing from the home to third parties? • Is there a correlation between the % of processed food and obesity?

41. What can we learn from zoonoses and food borne diseases? • The increases in food borne incidences (perhaps better said mini-epidemics) is perhaps an indicator that something is wrong with the food system – a sign of ill health • We over blow our fear from the new plague • In part because our responses tend to be over reactions costing millions and are largely ineffective • In fact our reactions are generally good at maintaining a pathogen

42. What can we learn from zoonoses and food borne diseases? • Most of all the entry, maintenance and spread of pathogens is related to human behaviour • Conscious and unconscious rule breakers • Understanding the institutional environment that they operate in will give us clues to effective entry points • This needs the combination of natural and social sciences skills

43. Key messages • Understand the context – the food system • Establish what is driving the institutional environment of the food system • Determine at which points in the food system the institutional environment is weak • Investigate the economics and social aspects of human behaviour at the weak points • Link this with biological investigations of pathogens • Separate biosecurity into biocontainment and bioexclusion in order to define public and private roles LCIRAH

44. Protecting livestock to protect peopleThrough a people centred approach with strong technical leadership