Reflections on Key Messages in Recent Reports

1. Reflections on Key Messages in Recent Reports amit.garg@risoe.dk

2. Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation • IPCC AR4, WG-I: Understanding and attributing climate change • Global scientific community is more than 90% certain that global warming is due to anthropogenic activities • Awaiting WG-II report • Stern Review • Impacts of climate change are not evenly distributed – the poorest countries and people will suffer earliest and most. • BAU climate change will reduce welfare by an amount equivalent to a reduction in consumption per head of between 5 and 20% • The accountability framework shifts from a Welfare framework to a Liability framework

3. Energy Security and Climate Security • Reducing energy poverty, and enhanced electricity access for developmental goals is projected to increase electricity requirements during 2007-2030 in developing countries • Coal based power is projected to remain the primary source for countries like China, India and South Africa - mainly due to energy security considerations • Coal use becomes cleaner in 2030 under BAU, but not clean enough • Climate security would need much deeper cuts in global GHG emissions by 2050 • Energy efficiency • Decarbonizing energy • CO2 capture and storage Affordability Access

4. Decoupling Economy, Energy and Carbon • GDP becomes less energy intensive, with China and India leading the way • Energy and CO2 emissions do not decouple under BAU scenario

5. Decoupling Global and Local Emissions • CO2 and local pollutant emissions (e.g. SO2, NOX and particulates) decouple in BAU • Many conjoint mitigation opportunities exist. However some are expensive than those for direct mitigation of local pollution. • Who pays for the cost differential?

6. Sustainable Development Indicators for China

7. Sustainable Development Indicators for India

8. Conclusions • The ‘non-climate’ route for international climate change policy making and negotiations is important • Adaptation to climate change impacts is crucial for developing countries • Aligning development and climate change solutions is possible, and may be more cost-effective • Large growth in energy consumption is expected. Due to energy security and costs this implies increasing CO2 intensity of energy consumption • GHG emission reduction policies need special consideration beyond BAU

9. Dual 2-Track Processes • Adapt as we negotiate • People-centric adaptation in the short-term • “Adaptation products” needed • Technology - transfer and cooperation • Financial resources • Align development and climate policies • Abate as we negotiate • Fossil based generation capacities are being added now, avoid lock-ins • Expand cooperative technology RD&D • Expand global cooperative mechanisms • Move beyond a “mere” environmental issue

10. Thanks