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CNRFC Operational Flood Forecasting

CNRFC Operational Flood Forecasting. Pete Fickenscher Hydrologist California-Nevada River Forecast Center National Weather Service October 18, 2006. CNRFC Operations. 11 Weather offices 220 Basins modeled 87 Flood Forecast Points Partners: Calif. DWR Season: Oct. 15 – Apr. 15

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CNRFC Operational Flood Forecasting

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  1. CNRFCOperational Flood Forecasting Pete Fickenscher Hydrologist California-Nevada River Forecast Center National Weather Service October 18, 2006

  2. CNRFC Operations • 11 Weather offices • 220 Basins modeled • 87 Flood Forecast Points • Partners: Calif. DWR • Season: Oct. 15 – Apr. 15 • 50 Reservoir Inflow Points • Partners: COE & BUREC • Season: year-round • 50 Water Supply Points • Season: Jan.1 – Jul. 1

  3. CNRFC Staff • Hydrologist in Charge (HIC) • Development and Operations Hydrologist (DOH) • 4 Senior Hydrologists • 3 Hydrologists • 1 Senior HAS Forecasters • 2 HAS Forecasters • Administrative Assistant

  4. CNRFC Hydrologic Products Short Range … … … … … … Long Range Flash Flood Guidance Flood Forecast Guidance Reservoir Inflow Forecasts Spring Snow Melt Forecasts Water Supply Volume

  5. Flood Forecasting Operations QPF River Forecasts

  6. Operational Hydrologic Models Operational Forecast System NWSRFS Structure Calibration System ESP

  7. Primary NWSRFS Models • Rain-Snow Elevation • Snow-17 • Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) • Unit Hydrograph • Reservoir Models • River Routing Models

  8. NWSRFS Models Rain-Snow Elevation Snowfall Rainfall

  9. NWSRFS Models SNOW-17 • Conceptual Model of Physical Processes • Models a Column of Snow - Accumulation of Snow Cover - Surface Energy Exchange - Snow Cover ‘Ripening’ - Ground Heat Exchange - Transmission of Liquid Water • Input = Air Temperature & Precip. • Output = Rain + Melt, SWE, & Areal Extent of Snow

  10. NWSRFS Models SNOW-17 WY 1986 SJ River

  11. NWSRFS Models SAC-SMA • Conceptual Model of the Land Phase of the Hydrologic Cycle • Input = Rain + Melt, Evapotranspiration, Areal Snow Cover • Output = Inflow to the channel system

  12. SAC-SMA

  13. NWSRFS Models SAC-SMA WY 1986 SJ River

  14. NWSRFS Models Actual Inflow (FOLC1) Observed (w): hourly data Simulated (p): 6-hourly (with reservoir outflows)

  15. NWSRFS Models River Routing Example

  16. NWSRFS Models Reservoir Model Example (Yolo Bypass)

  17. NWSRFS Models Tidal Example (Rio Vista)

  18. Operational Hydrologic Models Operational Forecast System NWSRFS Structure Calibration System ESP

  19. River Forecast Guidance Operational Flood Forecasting Hydrologist hydrologic expertise H A S QPF River Forecast System Rain/Snow Elevations Forecast Temp Soil, snow & routing parameters precip/temp/flow Data Systems Model Calibration

  20. Hydrologist River Forecast Guidance Operational Flood Forecasting Data Systems Model Calibration

  21. Precipitation Data Quality Control

  22. Precipitation Data Quality Control Gage Catch Issues • Wind • Snow • Instrumentation (double tipping) • Gage location (vegetation, topography…) • Vandalism

  23. Reservoir Inflow Outflow and Storage Hourly Stage & Streamflow Anticipated Reservoir Outflow River and Reservoir Data QC Automated Filtering & Manual QC

  24. Real-time Forecasting NF American River Observed Data Simulated Flow

  25. Real-time Forecasting Folsom Inflow

  26. Observed Flow Data Simulated Flow Real-time Forecasting San Joaquin River at Newman

  27. Operational Flood Forecasting

  28. Hydrologist River Forecast Guidance Operational Flood Forecasting Data Systems Model Calibration

  29. Interactive Forecast Program River Model

  30. IFP Runtime Modifications

  31. Operational Flood Forecasting Hydrologist hydrologic expertise Graphical RVF H A S QPF River Forecast System Rain/Snow Elevations Forecast Temp Soil, snow & routing parameters precip/temp/flow Data Systems Model Calibration

  32. Graphical River Forecast Guidance Merced River - Pohono Bridge

  33. Graphical RVF Availability • 87 official flood forecast points. • Routine updates. • twice per day. • morning/afternoon. • Updates during floods. • 8am/2pm/8pm/2am. • as needed. • Visible to everyone.

  34. Graphical River Forecast Guidance Benefits • Visual image of meteorological and hydrological situation. • More information is presented than in a text product. • Longer range guidance for emergency managers.

  35. Timeliness Forecast Value Accuracy ForecastingBalancing Timeliness and Accuracy Forecast Lead Time

  36. Graphical River Forecast Guidance • Guidance period information has higher uncertainty. • Timing and amount of rainfall forecast. • Rain/snow level forecast. • Unanticipated reservoir regulation will affect downstream forecasts and guidance.

  37. New Website http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/ Graphical RVF

  38. New Website http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/ Other River Guidance

  39. Review of 2006 Flood Event Folsom Inflow Forecasts Graphs

  40. Operational Hydrologic Models Operational Forecast System NWSRFS Structure Calibration System ESP

  41. ESP Products • Reservoir inflows • Unregulated rivers • Extended forecasts

  42. AHPS – Relevant Products ESP Custom Product Generation • CNRFC implemented AHPS locations • Started in WY2005 on 70 points

  43. ESP Traces

  44. AHPS – Relevant Products ESP Custom Product Generation

  45. CNRFC Development Areas • Flood Forecasting • Dam Break Support • Flash Flood Support • Water Supply Forecasting • Hourly Hydrologic Modeling • Website http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/

  46. California-NevadaRiver Forecast Center Thank You

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