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Reliability Must Run (RMR) Workshop January 15, 2004

Arizona Corporation Commission and Central Arizona Transmission System (CATS). Reliability Must Run (RMR) Workshop January 15, 2004. Bob Smith Arizona Public Service Co. Outline of Presentation. 2004 RMR Study Process Description of network and constraint SIL/MLSC determination

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Reliability Must Run (RMR) Workshop January 15, 2004

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  1. Arizona Corporation Commission and Central Arizona Transmission System (CATS) Reliability Must Run (RMR) WorkshopJanuary 15, 2004 Bob Smith Arizona Public Service Co.

  2. Outline of Presentation • 2004 RMR Study Process • Description of network and constraint • SIL/MLSC determination • RMR - demand, energy and duration • Economic/environmental impact of transmission constraint • Observations

  3. 2004 RMR Study Process • Transmission Provider Coordination - Basic Case Development - July 1, 2003 meeting - Draft Study Plan

  4. 2004 RMR Study Process (cont.) • Process open to all stakeholders - July 23, 2003 CATS Meeting • Study Plan approved • 2005, 2008, 2012 Selected for detailed analysis • Study APS/SRP combined Phoenix Area - August 22, 2003 CATS Meeting • Propose RMR load and Generation Definition - September 30, 2003 CATS Meeting • Preliminary Results • Model Welton Mohawk in Yuma

  5. APS 2005 Yuma Area Network

  6. APS 2008 Yuma Area Network

  7. APS 2012 Yuma Area Network

  8. APS 2005 Yuma Nomogram

  9. APS 2008 Yuma Nomogram

  10. APS 2012 Yuma Nomogram

  11. 2005 Yuma Load Duration and RMR Condition

  12. 2008 Yuma Load Duration and RMR Condition

  13. 2012 Yuma Load Duration and RMR Condition

  14. RMR Economic Analysis • GE MAPS production-cost simulator • Entire WECC modeled • Hourly least cost dispatch with transmission constraints • Annual cost to serve area load determined • Study repeated ignoring local import limit • Difference is the RMR cost • Environmental impact determined for each generator using emission rates

  15. 2005 APS Yuma Energy APS Yuma Area Total Load = 1,517 GWh $995,000 incremental cost

  16. 2008 APS Yuma Energy APS Yuma Area Total Load = 1,663 GWh $0.0 incremental cost

  17. 2012 APS Yuma Energy APS Yuma Area Total Load = 1,869 GWh $0.0 incremental cost

  18. Environmental Impact of Transmission Constraint for Yuma

  19. Yuma RMR Observations • APS load is expected to exceed import capability for 714 hours in 2005, 676 hours in 2008, and 12 hours in 2012. • Estimated cost to run local generation outside of economic dispatch is approximately $1.0 million in 2005 and $0 in 2008 and 2012. • 2nd North Gila transformer in 2005 and new 230kV line in 2012 effectively manage RMR conditions. • Removing the transmission constraint in 2005 would reduce PM10 emissions by 0.001%.

  20. 2005 Phoenix Area Network

  21. 2008 Phoenix Area Network

  22. 2012 Phoenix Area Network

  23. 2005 System Import LimitValley Nomogram SIL

  24. 2008 System Import LimitValley Nomogram

  25. 2012 System Import LimitValley Nomogram

  26. 2005 APS Phoenix Load Duration and RMR Condition

  27. 2008 APS Phoenix Load Duration and RMR Condition

  28. 2012 APS Phoenix Load Duration and RMR Condition

  29. RMR Economic Analysis • GE MAPS production-cost simulator • Entire WECC modeled • Hourly least cost dispatch with transmission constraints • Annual cost to serve area load determined • Study repeated ignoring local import limit • Difference is the RMR cost • Environmental impact determined for each generator using emission rates

  30. 2005 Phoenix Area Energy Phoenix Area Total Load = 47,833 GWh $0.0 incremental cost

  31. 2008 Phoenix Area Energy Phoenix Area Total Load = 54,310 GWh $0.0 incremental cost

  32. 2012 Phoenix Area Energy Phoenix Area Total Load = 63,037 GWh $84,000 incremental cost

  33. Phoenix Area Reserves

  34. Environmental Impact of Transmission Constraint for Phoenix Area

  35. Phoenix RMR Observations • APS load is expected to exceed import capability for 678 hours in 2005, 338 hours in 2008, and 758 hours in 2012. RMR energy represents approximately 1% of the total energy. • Estimated cost to run local generation outside of economic dispatch is less than $100,000 in each year. • Such small annual RMR costs do not justify Construction costs to relieve RMR. • The projected reserves in 2012 are 346 MW compared to a 99% reliability reserve requirement of 865 MW. • Removing the transmission constraint would reduce emissions in the Phoenix Area by 0.007% or less.

  36. Phoenix RMR Observations(Continued) • Benefits of local generation • Increase reliability • Local voltage support • Contingency response • Operating flexibility • Reduced losses • Lower transmission investment

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