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Complexity and Agent Based Models in the Policy Process. Bridget Rosewell and Paul Ormerod ECSS 2012 6 th September. The Policy Process. Problem solving Needs an answer – preferably optimal
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Complexity and Agent Based Models in the Policy Process Bridget Rosewell and Paul Ormerod ECSS 2012 6th September
The Policy Process • Problem solving • Needs an answer – preferably optimal • Works within a paradigm where agents respond to marginal incentives and where the system is self-equilibrating • Any alternative approaches carry new risks and have to be seen to offer significant improvements
Extending the Paradigm • Imperfect information and knowledge • Stochastic and deterministic models • Initial conditions • The order of decision taking • Structure of networks • Behavioural rules • Dynamics
Challenges of Policy using ABMs • Defining the question • Finding the right scale of model – small v large • Validation • Prediction or explanation
Conclusion • Policy makers need shared assumptions • Not all common approaches can be changed at once • Big problems allow for larger shifts – and more time and money to address them • Policy failures also open up windows of opportunity • A little complexity can go a long way
