Chapter 8

1. Chapter 8 Decision-Making Processes 指導教授：任維廉教授 報告學生：楊逢新

2. 桃園市 1985/07/05 學歷: 聖約翰科大學(五專制機械系) 高雄大學(應用經濟系) 交通大學(運輸科技與管理學系) 黃明居老師研究室 R胖 小光 楊逢新 打球

3. outline Definitions Individual Decision Making Organizational Decision Making Organizational Decision Making change Special decision circumstances

4. Definitions Organizational decision making – process of identifying and solving problems Problem Identification Stage Problem Solution Programmed Decisions – repetitive and well defined Nonprogrammed Decisions – novel and poorly defined

5. Today’s Business Environment New strategies Reengineering Restructuring Mergers/Acquisitions Downsizing New product/market development

6. Individual Decision Making Rational Approach Bounded Rationality Perspective

7. Rational approach – ideal method for how managers should make decisions. Bounded rationality perspective – how decisions are made under severe time and resource constraints. Individual Decision Making

8. Steps in the Rational Approach

9. There is a limit to how rational managers can be—time and resource constraints • Nonprogrammed decisions Constraints and Tradeoffs • Constraints impinge the decision maker The Role of Intuition • Experience and judgment rather than logic Bounded Rationality Perspective

10. Constraints and Trade-offs During Non-programmed Decision-Making

11. Organizational Decision Making Management Science Approach Carnegie Model The Incremental Decision Process

12. Management Science Approach Use of statistics to identify relevant variables Removed human element Very successful for military problems Good tool for decisions where variables can be indentified and measured A drawback of management science is that quantitative data are not rich and lack tacit knowledge

13. Carnegie Model

14. Incremental Decision Model Identific-ation Develop-ment selection 從發現到解決整個活動的結構因素 決策中斷（decision interrupts）：過程遇到障礙，cycle back *有考慮到動態因子：時間、環境、政策改變，重新檢討。cycle back cycle back

15. Organizational Decision Making change Combining the Incremental Process and Carnegie Model Garbage Can Model

16. 組織學習會受問題認定與問題解決階段所造成的不確定性所影響組織學習會受問題認定與問題解決階段所造成的不確定性所影響 為處理不確定性與複雜的問題，發展制定決策的方法： Combining the Incremental Process and Carnegie Model Garbage Can Model

17. Combining the Incremental Process and Carnegie Models Problem Identification and Problem Solution

18. Garbage Can Model Pattern or flow of multiple decisions Think of the whole organization Explain decision making in high uncertainty - organized anarchy: Problematic preferences Unclear, poorly understood technology Turnover Streams of events instead of defined problems and solutions

19. Illustration of Independent Streams of Events in the Garbage Can Model of Decision-Making

20. Consequences of the Garbage Can Model Solutions may be proposed even when problems do not exist Choices are made without solving problems Problems may persist without being solved A few problems are solved

21. Contingency Framework describes the contingency decision-making framework which brings together the two dimensions of problem consensus and technical knowledge about solutions.

22. Contingency Framework for Using Decision Models

23. Special Decision Circumstances Today’s environment presents high-stakes decisions that must be made quickly Managers must deal with: High-Velocity Environments Learning from decision mistakes Understanding cognitive and personal biases Escalating commitment Prospect theory Groupthink Evidence-based Management Encourages dissent and diversity

24. Q&A 若組織成員的意見不一致，且無法順利溝通，可能會造成往後成員間的心結，造成日後決策無法推動，該如何解決? 在組織中，最恐怖的事情就是有背叛者或間諜出現，那要如何在組織中，挖出這些人?並且如何處置他們?

25. Thanks for your listening