WFO Expectations of WoF : Benefits and Challenges

1. WFO Expectations of WoF:Benefits and Challenges David L. Andra, Jr. Meteorologist In Charge WFO Norman, Oklahoma

2. WoF Workshop Workshop 2013 Overview • The WFOs • The evolving mission of the WFOs • Potential benefits • Analyses • Forecasts • Challenges • Conclusions

3. WoF Workshop Workshop 2013 “My perspective…does not necessarily reflect views of colleagues or employer”

4. WoF Workshop Workshop 2013 The WFOs

5. WoF Workshop Workshop 2013 The WFOs • “Are in the community” • Services directed toward local needs • Various staffing levels • Various levels of expertise • Very diverse • Urban vs. rural, coastal vs. inland, etc. • “Progressive” versus “Traditional” • Variations in management philosophy

6. WoF Workshop Workshop 2013 The evolving mission • Schedule driven • ASCII text only • Basic weather forecasts, warnings • Manually intensive

7. WoF Workshop Workshop 2013 The evolving mission • 1990s – early 2000s • Data sets integrated into workstations • More data • Services diversifying • Internet arrives • Discussions of “Decision Support Services-DSS”

8. WoF Workshop Workshop 2013 April 19, 1995

9. WoF Workshop Workshop 2013 The evolving mission • Today • Services more diversified • Much more data • Internet primary direct conduit to users • DSS services rapidly growing • Need for better guidance at all scales

10. WoF Workshop Workshop 2013 Emerging themes • Shrinking scales in space and time • Must be adaptable to diverse users • Must be agile • Must manage our data • Forecaster over the loop • Spectrum of services

11. WoF Workshop Workshop 2013 WoF Potential Benefits • Analyses • Help manage vast data sets • Provide common starting point • A bridge from warn on detection

12. WoF Workshop Workshop 2013 WoF Potential Benefits • Analyses and Forecasts • Offer possibility to provide calibrated hazard services • Gridded multi-variable fields allow tailoring to diverse needs, thresholds of users • Expand potential lead time for customers that need it

13. WoF Workshop Workshop 2013 WoF Potential Benefits • Forecasts • More hazards forecast • More specific locations • More specific times for onset and ending • Means to express confidence • Could provide scientific foundation for services

14. WoF Workshop Workshop 2013 WoF Potential Benefits • WoF in general • Can help support NWS DSS vision • Can provide a basis for future WFO warning operations • Therefore help define a meaningful role for the next generation of forecasters

15. WoF Workshop Workshop 2013 Challenges • Practical barriers • “First, do no harm” • Changing the culture • Future NWS conops unknown • Fiscal realities of early 21st century

16. WoF Workshop Workshop 2013 Challenges • Capturing customer needs • Meeting customer needs • We tend to buy systems • Less consideration of “soft” aspects of change

17. WoF Workshop Workshop 2013 Challenges • Training • Should be thorough and rigorous • Meso, storm scale NWP, communications skills • Must include all forecasters • The first to go in an austere fiscal climate

18. WoF Workshop Workshop 2013 Challenges • We don’t understand breadth and depth of our users’ needs • Basic social science work remains • Most users don’t understand even today’s service capability

19. WoF Workshop Workshop 2013 Conclusions • We envision: • An evolution of capability and services • The means to get our arms around data volume • More specific information in space and time • More frequent updates to message • Likely gridded and probabilistic in nature • Capable of supporting diverse delivery methods • Easily tailored for customers and private sector

20. WoF Workshop Workshop 2013 Conclusions • We envision: • Capability to forecast more hazards • An opportunity to bring increased reliability and uniformity to services • An opportunity for meteorologists to evolve into a role consistent with changes in technology and NWP

21. WoF Workshop Workshop 2013 Questions ???