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ECONOMIC ISSUES

ECONOMIC ISSUES. Maja Bednaš IMAD. Ljubljana, 20th June 2011. FISCAL DEVELOPMENT AND POLICY. Revenues – expenditure imbalance. Source: SORS. General government deficit and debt in Slovenia. Source: SORS. General government deficit in the EU countries. Source: Eurostat.

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ECONOMIC ISSUES

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  1. ECONOMIC ISSUES Maja Bednaš IMAD Ljubljana, 20th June 2011 FISCAL DEVELOPMENT AND POLICY

  2. Revenues – expenditure imbalance Source: SORS.

  3. General government deficit and debt in Slovenia Source: SORS.

  4. General government deficit in the EU countries Source: Eurostat.

  5. General government debt in 2010 and its increase since 2008 Source: Eurostat.

  6. Consolidation in the EU in 2011 (EC Spring forecast 2011) Source: EC Spring forecast 2011.

  7. Consolidation in Stability programmes 2009 and 2011 Source: Stability Programme 2009, Stability Programme 2011.

  8. Why is consolidation slow? Pre-crisis structural issues Source: Stability Programme 2011, calculations IMAD.

  9. ...and why it slowed down further? • Lower nominal GDP forecast • NLB re-capitalization in 2011

  10. Lower nominal GDP forecast Source: IMAD.

  11. Revenues and expenditure in Stability Programmes 2009 and 2011 Source: Stability Programme 2009, Stability Programme 2011.

  12. Change in general governement revenues and expenditure in Stability Programme 2011 (EUR mn) Source: Stability Programme 2011.

  13. Risks to consolidation • Substantial fiscal effort will be needed to realise the planned consolidation • pace of consolidation still significantly depends on revenue dynamics – in case of worse economic situation deficit may exceed 3% of GDP • Consolidation relies on emergency measures • (All) measures are not clearly defined • Proposed economic policy mix increases the risk that more flexible development expenditure (investments, subsidies) will be crowded out in the event that the planned measures are not implemented – it is easier to achieve than cutting spending with systemic changes • Furthermore - more expensive borrowing would affect the quality of the public finances, as growing expenditure on interest would also crowd out more flexible development expenditure

  14. Revenues and expenditure in Stability Programme 2011 Source: Stability Programme 2011.

  15. Pension reform Source: IER.

  16. Successful consolidation in 2013 would result in debt around 46 % of GDP Source: Stability Programme 2009, Stability Programme 2011.

  17. 10-year bond yield spreads, relative to German bonds, in p.p. Source: Eurostat.

  18. Interest expenditure – crowding out Source: Stability Programme 2011.

  19. The scope for increasing the tax burden is limited • On the revenue side, the scope for increasing the tax burden is limited. To speed up consolidation, it makes sense to raise certain indirect taxes and broaden the tax base: • Higher taxes on labour and capital would have an adverse impact on economic activity and competitiveness - tax policy in these fields must focus on improving the tax capacity by preserving the current tax rates and broadening the tax base • Given rising inflationary pressures, the scope for raising consumption taxes is also limited. Possibilities: to raise excise duties on products with relatively low elasticity of demand (alcohol, tobbaco), property and environmental taxes

  20. Measures to reduce expenditure and maintain long-term sustainability of public finance • A part of spending cuts can be achieved with savings measures and streamlining, not with linear cuts but with the creation of a system that will allow for greater flexibility in wages and hiring, consistent implementation of measures to improve the efficiency of the public sector, and streamlining of operations • Improving the efficiency and effectiveness of development expenditure would speed up consolidation and have a positive impact on competitiveness (exclude inefficient programmes, curb expenditure on oversized and inefficient subsidies, enhancing public-private partnerships, carry out the transition to priority financing investments with EU funds, improve efficency of expenditure RD and, education, adjustments in the management of public institutions and public administration) • Maintaining the long-term sustainability of the public finances: pension, health care and long-term care reforms

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