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Forecasting Ceilings

Forecasting Ceilings. Meteorology 415 Fall 2011. Low Ceilings. Any broken to overcast deck below 1000 ft Part of MVFR (3miles and 1,000 ft) Processes in the PBL play the major role Elevation is a prime factor Precipitation (recent or current) has an influence

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Forecasting Ceilings

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  1. Forecasting Ceilings Meteorology 415 Fall 2011

  2. Low Ceilings • Any broken to overcast deck below 1000 ft • Part of MVFR (3miles and 1,000 ft) • Processes in the PBL play the major role • Elevation is a prime factor • Precipitation (recent or current) has an influence • Direction of surface air flow (upslope is a must) • Fog season climatology is very important

  3. Low Ceilings Also check out the RUC and HRRR

  4. Low Ceilings

  5. Low Ceilings • Consider advection of low ceilings • Decide on whether conditions warrant the formation of low ceilings • Rapid moistening of low levels • Winds become lighter or blow upslope • Surface convergence expected • Cooling of lower troposphere • Or warming in the winter over cold ground / snow cover • Remember instrument’s ability to detect low ceilings

  6. Low Ceilings • Become familiar with the Weather Depiction Chart showing ceilings and low visibilities…

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