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A test Judging by the most recent communications that we have received from Afghanistan in the form of encrypted cables, as well as by telephone conferences... the situation in Afghanistan has deteriorated sharply. There, as we know from the previous cables, [a division of the army] was stationed, and had restored order, but now we have received news that this division has essentially collapsed. An artillery regiment and one infantry regiment comprising that division have gone over to the insurgents. Bands of saboteurs and terrorists, having infiltrated from the territory of Pakistan, trained and armed not only with the participation of Pakistani forces but also of [a foreign power] are committing atrocities.. The insurgents infiltrating into the territory... from Pakistan and Iran have joined forces with domestic [resistance]. The latter is especially comprised of religious fanatics. The number of insurgents is difficult to determine, but our [commanders] tell us that they are thousands, literally thousands.
Soviet General named Gromyko reporting to L.I. Breshnev on March 17, 1979.
in 1983, a Soviet journalist named Vladimir Danchev referred, on air, to the Soviet actions in Afghanistan as an 'invasion'. The Communist party preferred the term 'liberation', as Breshnev had pointed out, it can't be an invasion if the forces had been 'invited' in by the Government to help fight the terrorist, saboteurs and religious fanatics. Vladimir Danchev had the courage to call an invasion an 'invasion', and for that, the Soviets took him away to be 'cured' of his 'illness'.
Oddities, Fallacies, and other bad arguments: • Analogies • Enthymemes • Example • Authority • Maxims • Miscellaneous Fallacies
Anti-gay marriage laws are supported via a 'defense of traditional marriage'. Analogy Anti-miscegenation laws were discriminatory anti-miscegenation and anti-gay marriage laws are alike because: Anti-miscegenation laws were supported via a 'defense of traditional marriage'.
Therefore: • Anti-gay marriage laws are discriminatory.
Enthymemes • small change (12:32:26 p.m.) • Nope , I was a limited resource before the market and now I am not sure that any market activity is a good idea. I am considering investing in a fireproof mattress and hoarding gold. • Dan Seiver (12:34:33 p.m.) • It is always darkest before the dawn! • ajw (12:36:11 p.m.) • So, do you think we're close to a "dawn"? • Dan Seiver (12:36:56 p.m.) • getting close!!!
My favorite example in the entire semester: Now, I am terrible when it comes to guys. I think he's interested in me, but it seems like once we have a connection, we both back off and kind of freak out. I really want something to happen, but I don't know a) if he's interested in the first place, or b) how to let him know I'm interested without making the work environment weird. (Someone mentioned another woman here who was interested in him, and his response was, "You don't shit where you eat.") Am I crazy? Should I back off and see if he pursues me? Should I make my intentions known?
What the hell? How is 'don't shit where you eat' supposed to constitute an argument?
A deduction dealing with practical subjects. (S21, Rhetoric) But, for the most part, we mean: An enthymeme is an argument that has one or more premises implied or assumed, not mentioned explicitly.
Enthymemes, Authority and Analogies: Examples • EJ Dionne ‘Conservative’ • Stalin and Bin Laden • The Nazis and Everyone
Example • An argument from example is any incomplete argument, or enthymeme, that references a event, past, present or fictional, to make the case. The event is not used as data point in an inductive argument to establish a general conclusion, or as an analogy pre se. It is used as a kind of illustrative case or paradigmatic example for the current situation.
Authority • Pat Robertson • Dr. Phil • Etc... One produces an argument from authority if the only reason given in support of a conclusion is the endorsement of a putative authority in the field.
Other Character-basedpersuasions • “Help, Mom, there are liberals under the bed!” • “Why Mommy is a democrat” • http://www.brawnyman.com/products/ads.html • And: http://www.brawnyman.com/innocentescapes/indexbroadband.html
Arguments from Analogy Attack it here • A and B are alike with respect to {a, b, c …} • A has property x. • Therefore, B likely has property x. Either that {a, b, c…} are not relevant to having x – or that B does not share {a, b, c…} with A.
"Once we understand the biology of Escherichia coli, we will understand the biology of an elephant".Jacques Monod.
Modeling • Models (of all sorts, but particularly animal models) are analogies – so are we to discard all animal experimentation?
The Thalidomide Tragedy • Thalidomide is a anti-inflammatory and immunosuppressant that was prescribed to expectant mothers in the 1950s • Thalidomide is a teratogen in a few rabbit breeds and in seven species of primates. • It is not a teratogen in at lest 10 rat strains, 15 mice strains, 11 rabbit breeds, two dog breeds, three hamster strains, and eight species of primate.
In reverse: • Aspirin, insulin, epinephrine, and certain antibiotics (I don’t know which) are known to cause malformations in rodents
Argument from analogy • A and B are alike with respect to properties {a, b, c…} • A has property x • Therefore, B should have property x as well.
Argument from model: • A and B are functionally isomorphic with respect to properties {1, 2, 3…} • A has the functional property n • Functional isomorphism usually betrays similar underlying structures. • Therefore, B should have functional property n as well.
Argument from model: • A and B are functionally isomorphic with respect to properties {a, b, c…} • A has the functional property x • Functional isomorphism usually betrays similar mechanism. • Therefore, B should have functional property x as well.
A Question: • Is the Thalidomide story a case of pseudo-science, or just science done badly? • Is this evidence that animal models are unreliable, or is it just that these studies were poorly performed?
Problems for Many Sciences. • How do we observe / experiment on the internal workings of something (I.e. cognition)?
Sternberg’s Results Response Time = 398+38(S) Gravitational Force = (A constant called G) x (mass of first object) x (mass of second object) (the square of the distance between them)
Models & Mechanisms: • Mechanism: entities and activities organized to produce a phenomenon (teleological?) • Entities and activities organized in such a way as to realize a functional role.
‘Model’? • A Model is a description of some phenomena / on A model is verdical insofar as corresponds to the actual phenomena it seeks to model. (‘fit’) A model, just like a ‘law’ or a ‘theory’ explains phenomena / on and can be used to make predictions about novel / unobserved aspects of the phenomena it seeks to model. Therefore, it is plays the same roll as ‘law’ or ‘theory’ in the H-D method or D-N model of explanation.
Modeling Formulae relating observables Investigation of underlying structure ‘Mathematical Models’ in Psych Discovered Models Invented Models V = d/t ‘Experimental Systems’ Mathematical Symbolic Neural Network F=ma
1st use: relating observables • The most simple use of a mathematical model is to fit a mathematical function to some data collected in an experiment. That function can then be used to make predictions about novel or unobserved behavior. • Sternberg’s Memory Scanning Model • Response Time = 398 + 38(Memory Set Size) • De Castro and Brewer • Intake of food = s(Number of People Present)0.22
Sternberg’s Results Response Time = 398+38(S) Intake = s(People)0.22 Gravitational Force = (A constant called G) x (m1) x (m2) (d2)
The importance of Mathematical Models: Quick: what is the most famous mathematical model in the US right now?
The BCS Formula • ‘Fit’? • Data: team record, opponent’s record (‘strength of schedule’), poll rankings over the season, team losses & ‘quality wins’.
Example: Oklahoma 2000? • AP & Coaches poll end of season rank = 1. • Average rank over the course of the season= 1.86. • Average of AP & Coaches poll + average over season = 2.86. • (Thanks to Richard Billingsley at ESPN for the explanation).
Strength of schedule • Add the opponent’s records together = 73 Wins, 62 losses. • Drop wins against teams that were not 1-A, and you have 70W. • Drop losses from opponent’s schedule that were against OK, and you get 50 losses. • Total: 70 Wins, 50 losses.
Opponent’s winning %. • The winning percentage is 70/120 = 58.3% or 0.583. • 0.583 * 2/3 = 0.3889 • Do the same ‘opponent’ calculation for each of the opponent’s opponents and weight it by 1/3 = 0.1749 • Add these 2 together and you get 0.5638
Now… • Rank all the teams according to this ‘strength of schedule’. OK is 11th • Finally, take that rank / 25 = 0.44. • Add ‘Team losses’ (0 for OK) and ‘Quality wins’ (0 for OK). • Add that to ‘Poll average’ and you get 3.30.
New BCS: • I. Harris Interactive Poll (1/3rd) Replaces the AP Poll. The first poll will be released September 25, then weekly through December 4. A team's score in the Harris poll will be divided by 2,825, which is the maximum number of points any team can receive if all 113 voting members rank the same team as Number 1. (Example: 2,825 / 2,825 = 1.0. If a team receives a total of 113 voting points, an average of 25th place, their BCS quotient of this component would be .04. (1.0 / 25 = 0.04).
