Knowledge Transfer and Empirical Modeling Team

D. Baker (CU/LASP) R. Weigel (CU/LASP) D. Vassiliadis (NASA/GSFC) A. Klimas (NASA/GSFC) R. McPherron (UCLA) G. Siscoe (BU) N. Crooker (BU) H. Spence (BU) H. Singer (SEC/NOAA) T. Onsager (SEC/NOAA) N. Arge (SEC/NOAA) Knowledge Transfer and Empirical Modeling Team Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP

National Space Weather Program Components Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP

OUR GOAL:Transform Information into Wisdom Information Knowledge Wisdom “Before you become too entranced with gorgeous gadgets and mesmerizing video displays,let me remind you that information is not knowledge, knowledge is not wisdom, and wisdom is not foresight. Each grows out of the other, and we need them all. "Arthur C. Clark Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP

Knowledge Transfer Science and Technology Center Goals • Establish meaningful links and benefits to society • Promote links to federal agencies, National Labs, industry, etc. • Make an impact on nation’s scientific and/or technological base • Add value of national and international impact • Innovate in knowledge transfer Modeling the Solar-Terrestrial System Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling CU/LASP Partnership with NOAA/SEC • SEC is the nation’s official source of space weather alerts and warnings • Serves the nation to reduce adverse effects of space weather disturbances on human activities Using Models to Support Customers Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP

Knowledge Transfer Challenges • Transition Models to Forecasting Tools • Disseminate Results to Space Physics Community • Exchange Information with Agency Programs • Share Knowledge with CISM Industrial Partners Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP

Dartmouth College University of California Boston University NCSA University of Colorado NCAR/HAO NOAA/SEC Stanford University NOAA/SEC SW Operations R&D Systems Alabama A&M University SAIC University of Texas, El Paso Rice University Knowledge Transfer in CISM CISM CU/LASP CISM Liaison for Model Evaluation and Test Product Development Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP

Studying the Solar-Terrestrial Chain SOHO SNOE RHESSI ACE CLUSTER Solar Source POLAR Solar Wind Drivers SAMPEX Seed Population TIMED Observational Situation— Continuous views of sun in UV, x-rays, visible wavelengths (SOHO, NOAA/SXI, RHESSI, etc.) Precipitation And Loss Atmospheric & Ionospheric Coupling Continuous data from ACE Excellent data on plasma sheet sources of seed population (CLUSTER, GEOTAIL, POLAR, etc.) Excellent data from SAMPEX, NOAA/POES, POLAR/PIXIE Continuous coverage with SNOE and TIMED Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP

ACE Measurements MeV Electron Flux r V B L1-Earth Propagation External Field Solar Boundary Measurements SW Propagation Surface dB/dt Ap Status of Empirical Modeling Work • Empirical Model Suite contains a working Sun-to-Earth chain • Compiled a set of community-developed empirical models Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP

Sun-to-Earth Modeling and Forecasts Earth Wang-Sheely Model modified by Arge Sun Mount Wilson Observatory Solar Magnetograms Solar Wind Velocity Baker Model modified by Smithtro running at SEC Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP

Sun-to-Earth Modeling and Forecasts Earth Wang-Sheely Model modified by Arge Sun Mount Wilson Observatory Solar Magnetograms Solar Wind Velocity CISM Energetic Electron Models, dB/dt Model, and Ap model Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP

WSA Driving Electron Flux Models ACE Measurements MeV Electron Flux r V B L1-Earth Propagation External Field Solar Boundary Measurements SW Propagation Surface dB/dt Ap FIR model of Vassiliadis et al. 2002 and Threshold Model of Weigel et al. 2003 Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP

Sun-to-Earth Modeling and Forecasts Earth Wang-Sheely Model modified by Arge Sun Mount Wilson Observatory Solar Magnetograms Solar Wind Velocity CISM Surface dB/dt Models Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP

ACE Data Driving dB/dt Model ACE Measurements MeV Electron Flux r V B L1-Earth Propagation Solar Boundary Measurements SW Propagation External Field Surface dB/dt Ap Surface dB/dt Model of Weigel et al., 2002 Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP

Sharing Knowledge with Space Physics Community • Common framework allows for rapid addition of new models and ensemble prediction • Models are presented to research community on a web site with documentation and links to other resources Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP

Submitting a Model ACE Measurements MeV Electron Flux r V B Ballistic Propagation External Field Solar Boundary Measurements SW Propagation Surface dB/dt Ap Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP

Submitting a Model ACE Measurements MeV Electron Flux Weimer Propagation r V B External Field Solar Boundary Measurements SW Propagation Surface dB/dt Ap Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP

DoD Customers and Operations Civilian Customers and Operations DoD SEC Rapid Prototyping Centers Verification Documentation Communication CCMC Model Access Validation Metrics Model Flow Space Weather Research Community Living With a Star NASA Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling NSF Core Space Science Research Targeted Space Weather Research NSF/AF/ONR Multi-University Research Initiatives AF/ONR Space Weather Model Development Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP

Boeing MRC Metatech, Inc. Lockheed-Martin Ball Aerospace Lockheed-Martin Goddard SFC Lockheed-Martin Aerospace Corp. Marshall SFC SAIC Johnson Space Center Knowledge Sharing with Industrial Partners Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP

2002 2007 Forecasting Tools Community Dissemination Industrial Partners Timeline and Milestones --Standard Model Runs on Web --Custom Model Runs Available --Standard Mag/ITM/RC/RB Model Runs on Web --Custom Solar/Solar Wind/Mag/ITM Runs Available Coupled Mag/ITM/Ring Current/Rad Belt Model Available to Transition Three Empirical Models Available for Transition Coupled Global SW/Mag/ITM Available to Transition Industrial “Space Weather Fellowships” Established CISM Presence at Space Weather Week Seminar Series Established • Implement other empirical models based on feedback from NOAA/SEC and validation results • Work with physics-based modelers to develop a common framework for model output, interaction, and presentation • Begin model validation and benchmarking • Develop new models based on weaknesses exposed in validation Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP

CISM Vision Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP

Knowledge Transfer and Empirical Modeling Team