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The Transition to High School: Initial HS Experiences and 9 th Grade Failure

The Transition to High School: Initial HS Experiences and 9 th Grade Failure. Jerald R. Herting October 19 th UW-BHS Project Workshop. So why be concerned about the initial 9 th grade experience?. 9 th Grade Facts . 16% of first time 9 th graders have GPA < 1 37% have GPA below 2.0

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The Transition to High School: Initial HS Experiences and 9 th Grade Failure

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  1. The Transition to High School: Initial HS Experiences and 9th Grade Failure Jerald R. Herting October 19th UW-BHS Project Workshop

  2. So why be concerned about the initial 9th grade experience?

  3. 9th Grade Facts • 16% of first time 9th graders have GPA < 1 • 37% have GPA below 2.0 • 35% of all students fail at least one class during first semester of 9th grade • Prevalent across all student subgroups • 9th Grade downturn is experienced across a spectrum of 8th grade performance (i.e. not just the past poor performers) • 9th Grade GPA is major predictor of high school completion

  4. A place for policy and intervention • Understanding the risks and processes of success and failure identify what can be changed • Intervention programs/initiatives have targeted features of this transition and it is worthwhile to examine these program effects • To what degree are targeted features related to 9th grade success or failure

  5. Transition to High School Study • 9th grade survey of students • ~ 65 question ‘pencil and paper’ survey of all 9th graders • Conducted 6th week of classes—prior to quarter grades • Educational experiences and expectations • 8th grade survey of teachers • All 8th grade teachers evaluate the likelihood that the student will have academic or behavioral problems or be at risk of dropping out in high school. • School records • Match school records (grades, etc) & surveys • Coverage (Year 2004 and 2005) • Response rate ~71% for students enrolled in district for 8th and 9th grades

  6. Making the transition

  7. Theoretical Model

  8. Intervention Model

  9. Key features of initial 9th grade experience • Preparedness (lack of) • 4 items • “I find it difficult to be ready for class“ • Achievement Orientation • 1 item • “How far would you like to go in school” • School Engagement/Attachment • 7 items • “I think that it is important to have a high grade point average”

  10. Some descriptive bivariate relations • Risk and Family SES • 8th grade performance • Initial experience in HS

  11. 9th Grade 1st Semester GPA by Gender *Statistically significant difference at the .01 level

  12. 9th Grade 1st Semester GPA by Family Intactness *Statistically significant difference at the .01 level

  13. 9th Grade 1st Semester GPA by 8th Grade GPA 8th GPA: Median = 2.95 Mean = 2.79 *Statistically significant difference at the .01 level

  14. 9th Grade 1st Semester GPA by Student Academic Orientation: Educational Expectations *Statistically significant difference at the .01 level

  15. 9th Grade 1st Semester GPA by Student Academic Preparation: Perception of Workload in 9th grade Note: A high value on scale indicates difficult workload *Statistically significant difference at the .01 level

  16. 9th Grade 1st Semester GPA by Student Academic Engagement Scale *Statistically significant difference at the .01 level

  17. Multivariate Analysis—Part One

  18. What predicts initial HS experiences • Preparedness (lack of) • 8th grade performance, ethnicity, gender, parental education • Achievement Orientation • 8th grade performance, ethnicity, gender, parental education, low SES • Engagement • 8th grade performance, ethnicity, parental education

  19. Multivariate Analysis—Part Two

  20. Effect p-value Predictors:* 8th grade GPA .72 .00 Initial High School Experience Preparedness (lack of) - .26 .00 Orientation .04 .00 Engagement .20 .00 R-square .61 *controls for gender, ethnicity, parental education, SES, family structure, and cohort Predicting 9th Grade GPA

  21. Discussion/Summary • Direct impact of initial HS experience • Preparedness, orientation, engagement all affect 9th grade performance • Continued effects of past achievement • Continued effects of background

  22. Strategic Intervention

  23. Next steps • Explore the role of school context • Effects of initiatives at middle schools • Effects of WSA • Presence of scholarship • Restructuring of HS • Two features to explore • Do such initiatives add directly to prevent failure/encourage achievement • Do they enhance effects of initial HS experience

  24. Thanks to--- • BHS study group • Nick Pharris-Ciurej and Patty Glynn for providing assistance with data and analysis • Joe Willhoft and Robin Munson for initial help in starting the 9th grade project • Tacoma Public Schools

  25. 9th Grade 1st Semester GPA by Race/Ethnicity Median 2.12 Median 3.05 Median 2.19 Median 1.92 Median 2.78 *A statistically significant difference exists between this and all other groups

  26. Effect p-value Predictors: Constant - .32 .09 Year entered HS .04 .09 Female (male reference) .07 .01 Asian .12 .00 African American - .18 .00 Hispanic - .13 .02 Native American (white reference) - .14 .17 Parental Education (years) .01 .05 Low SES - .25 .00 Non-Intact Family - .10 .00 8th grade GPA .72 .00 Initial High School Experience Preparedness (perceived high workload) - .26 .00 Orientation .04 .00 Engagement .20 .00 R-square .61 Predicting 9th Grade GPA

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