Transportation Infrastructure Projects: From Conception to Implementation

1. Transportation Infrastructure Projects: From Conception to Implementation By Prof. S. L. Dhingra Transportation Systems Engineering IIT Bombay

2. The Stages Conception: • Identification of project alternatives • Selection of the best alternative Implementation: • Construction of the project • Operation and Maintenance

4. Classic Four-Stage Sequential Travel Demand Model Trip Generation Trip Distribution Demand Modal Split Traffic Assignment Supply Considering Environmental Protection Economy

5. Travel Demand Modeling Planning Variables • Study area • Internal zones • External zones • Plan Periods • Demographic and Socio-economic data • Protection of planning variables • Transport network • Origin and Destination Survey

6. TRIP GENERATION • Trip Productions • Trip Attractions • Aggregate Analysis • Disaggregate Analysis • Zonal Models • Household-based Models • Regression Models • Trip-rate Analysis • Cross-classification Models

7. Trip Distribution • Growth Factor Method • Synthetic Approach • Basic Gravity Model • BPR Gravity Model • Entropy Maximizing Model • Optimization Model

8. Modal Split Models • Trip end Modal Split Model • Trip Interchange Modal Split Models • Synthetic Models • Model derived from trip distribution • Direct Demand • Analytical tools for modal split • Diversion curve • Regression analysis • Discrete choice modal

9. Traffic Assignment Models • All – Or – Nothing Assignment Method • Equilibrium Assignment Methods • Diversion Models • Dynamic Assignment Models • Combined Models • Direct Demand Model • Combined Distribution Assignment Model • Combined Modal Split and Route Choice Models

10. Tijmrsp Example of Travel Estimation Process Tijmrs (Income) 2 Edud. High 3 Work 6 Pi Other 1 Medium 5 Production Low 9 9 1 47 17 2 66 3 110 Tijmr Tijm F r o m Z o n e s To Zones 1 2 3 Route A 5 Mode I 25 1 10 18 19 47 Route B 17 Mode II 15 Aj 2 30 32 4 66 Route C 3 40 3 5 40 65 110 Attraction 45 90 88 223 1 45 2 90 3 88 Tijmrp Trip Purpose Education 3 Work 12 Other 2 17 Tij

11. Travel Demand ModelingOther Approaches • Equilibrium Demand Modeling • Traveler as consumer of transit trips • Micro Economics - Utility Maximization • Activity based analysis (Factors) • Individual Traveler Level • Type and Time of Activity • Community Level • Social Level • Destination by mode • Congestion

12. Rural Road Planning Process • Creation of road development plans (alternatives) for achieving the objectives of integrated rural development. • Allocating priorities to rural areas under consideration through the various plans • Qualification of the benefits of alternatives and subsequent comparison between competing plans. • Selection of the ‘optimal’ road development plan through the above process.

13. Transport Priority Indices (TPI) in a System’s Framework • The Need: - Huge investments involved and priority needs to be given to villages with higher population and potential market surplus. • The proposals discussed are those initiated by: • the State Government of Karnataka • the Indonesian rural roads study group • the ARD (Accelerated Rural Development) road network of Thailand

14. The Karnataka State Government proposal for computing TPI » Marking or index based system with highest marks for villages with population greater than 1000 people. » The indices are based on factors such as population, village accessibility, local market, regulated market, hospital, post office, school, and electrification. » Each factor is assigned some marks and the priority is based on the total marks. » Drawback of method:- only few factors considered.

15. The Indonesian Rural Road Study Group proposal for computing TPI » 2 components for TPI - Requirement factors and Provision factors. » Requirement factors such as traffic flow, traffic growth, population density, socio-economic benefits expected, area of influence, and network significance. » Provision factors such as length of road, surface type, surface condition, terrain, carriageway and formation width, stability of drainage and culverts, condition of bridges and major crossings » TPI given by (Requirement factor score/Provision factor score)*100.

16. ARD (Accelerated Rural Development) road network proposal of Thailand for TPI » 2 Factors: Benefit and Cost factors. » Benefit factors such as agricultural production, cultivable land, water availability, population, existing road condition, traffic volume, co-operation among people, public utilities and private enterprises. » Benefit and Cost scores worked out after giving certain marks to all the factors. » TPI = (Total Benefit Score) / (Total Cost Score)

17. Trip Generation & Distribution in a Systems’ Framework » Village with the highest TPI is identified and is designated as the origin node. » Destinations to which traffic is generated from the origin node are also identified and are designated as the destination nodes. » Primary survey enables traffic estimation from the village by different transportation modes as well as distribution among various links. » For inter zonal trip generation in the village region, a gravity model is hypothesized and calibrated to estimate the slope and intercept coefficients.

18. Organizational Setup for Planning and Prioritizing • Formation of Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) • Preparation of proposal/tender document • Guidelines for selection of tenders • Pre-bid selection • Selection of PMC • Selection of contractors • Proof consultants

19. UNDP - Government of India Project on Pro-poor Globalisation Aim: Informed and participatory pro-poor policy making, strategy and programme formulation Methodology: • Review of already conducted research on pro-poor and anti-poor impacts of globalisation • Additional research and analysis • Involvement of the poor in the policy dialogue • Making information accessible to lay- person

20. Methodology for Selection of Proposal • Organisations short-listed on the basis of initial proposals • Selection of 3 top-ranked proposals based on their presentations • Initial contract awarded to these 3 organisations to further refine and detail their proposal, work plan and project strategy. • Review of final proposals by a panel • Project awarded to the highest ranked proposal

21. Decision Making • Importance of decision making at every stage during the project • Two important steps in the decision making process • Course of action, which contains recognition, discovery and contraction of ideas • Finding alternative strategies • Decision making is complex due to multiplicity of attributes

22. Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) • Importance in design and planning • Some MCDM techniques: • Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) • Fuzzy Set Methodology • Metagame Theory

23. Analytical Hierarchy Process • Basic principles of AHP • Hierarchic representation and decomposition • Priority discrimination and synthesis • Logical consistency • Series of pair-wise comparisons carried out to obtain the preference order • Each decision alternative assigned a weight • Weights represent the alternatives’ desirability

24. Applications in fields like: • conflict analysis • operations research • portfolio selection • bid evaluation • capital budgeting

25. FUZZY SET ANALYSIS Transportation planning involves Qualitative and quantitative analysis including uncertain Attributes and Characteristics. Fuzzy Analysistakes care of this important aspect of transportation planning.

26. FUZZY LOGIC • Fuzziness in Transportation Analysis • In the study of transportation problems, fuzziness is • found in many aspects of analysis • Perception of data and information, • Knowledge base, • Statement of goals and objectives, and • Problem definition.

27. General Procedure for Fuzzy Analysis • Define fuzzy problem in detail • Identify all important variables and their ranges • Determine membership profiles for each variable • range • Determine rules(prepositional statements ), and • Select defuzzification methodology.

28. METHODOLOGY The following are the steps of the methodology: 1. Identifying the modes which will form attributes (i,e., factors) of those coordinated modes. 2. Categorizing different interest groups. 3. Forming termed rating matrix, with columns as modes and rows as factors. 4. Constructing of different rating matrices as per the views of respective interest groups 5. Aggregation of rating matrices 6. Forming ‘ dominance’ matrix from the dominance of one mode over the other mode 7. Calculating the % share of service by each mode in a coordinated system.

29. Case Study The city of Calcutta, with five different mass transit modes, is considered for the case study.

30. Case Study The attributes considered for each mode are:

31. Case Study Rating matrix for commuters’ opinion:

32. Case Study Rating Matrix for Planners Opinion

33. Case Study Rating Matrix for the Researcher’s Opinion

34. Case Study The aggregation matrices using pessimistic aggregation and optimistic aggregation are:

35. Case Study Optimistic Aggregate

36. Case Study

37. Case Study Dominance Matrix for Optimistic Aggregation

38. Case Study Final Ranking and % share by each coordinated modes by both the techniques are: Ranking and % of modal share for Pessimistic Aggregation

39. Case Study Ranking and % of modal share for Optimistic Aggregation

40. FINDINGS • The % modal shares among the co-ordinated modes by both the methods are : • This indicates the order of priority • The approaches give the qualitative as well as quantitative appraisal of the share of different mass transit modes.

41. METAGAME ANALYSIS • Player • Options • Strategy • Outcome • Stability Analysis Unilateral Improvements Inescapable Sanctions Inescapable Improvements

42. Technique of application (analysis of choice) Set theory logic classical game theory Metalevel Analysis Checking the theory by experiment Application METALEVEL ANALYSIS Situation or conflict :- a ‘game’ Major decision makers :- identified as ‘players’ Specified no. of options with the player A possible selection of options for a particular player :- his ‘strategy’ Situation where each player chooses a strategy :- ‘outcome’

43. Application of Metagame Analysis • Case Study for implementation of underground railway system in the city of Calcutta • Conflict between the users and the implementers regarding the fares for underground railway

44. Stability Analysis

45. ADVANTAGES • helps in the resolution of conflicts between parties having a difference of opinion. • a non-quantitative method of analysis LIMITATIONS • quite complicated in case of multi player and multi choice conditions • May not always lead to a stable solution

46. CASE STUDIES The following case studies will be discussed: • Mumbai - Pune Expressway Project • The 50 Flyovers Project (Mumbai Traffic Improvement Mega-Project) • Western Freeway Sea Link Project • Bandra - Worli Sea Link Project, etc.

47. SUMMARY • Traditional four stage Transportation Planning methodology is discussed. • Fundamentals behind the various techniques adopted in decision making for mega transportation infrastructure projects are discussed. • An insight is provided into the procedure involved from conception to implementation stage supported by case studies of various transportation projects.

48. CONCLUSIONS • Projects should be well-conceived and economically efficient, using latest tools for decision analysis. • Decision analysis should be through PMC , TAC as well as conflict resolution, for different stages in the projects. • It is necessary to have appropriate institutional set up for effective conception, planning, prioritization, decision analysis, PMC/contractor selection and effective implementation through Q/A checks.

49. Thank You