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Module 14: Confidence Intervals

Module 14: Confidence Intervals. This module explores the development and interpretation of confidence intervals, with a focus on confidence intervals for the population mean, based on the sample mean. Reviewed 05 May 05 / Module 14. Some Questions.

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Module 14: Confidence Intervals

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  1. Module 14: Confidence Intervals This module explores the development and interpretation of confidence intervals, with a focus on confidence intervals for the population mean, based on the sample mean. Reviewed 05 May 05 / Module 14 14 - 1

  2. Some Questions The following questions reference a normal distribution with a meanμ = 150 lbs, a variance σ2 = 100 lbs2, and a standard deviation σ = 10 lbs or N(150, 10). 1.   When centered about μ = 150 lbs, what proportion of the total distribution does an interval of length 10 lbs cover? 2. How many standard deviations long must an interval be in order to cover the middle 95% of the distribution? 3.   From μ - (??) standard deviations to μ + (??) standard deviations covers (??)% of the distribution? 14 - 2

  3. All these situations require that the population mean μ be known and that it be placed in the center of these intervals. In general, we have a sample mean, , and are using it as a guess or estimate for the population mean μ. Hence, it would be useful if we could have an interval based on , that is, with in the middle. Such an interval would help us to understand better our point estimate, the sample mean , which is an estimate of the population mean μ. The Situation 14 - 3

  4. Confidence Interval for Population Mean 14 - 4

  5. Confidence Interval for Population Mean 14 - 5

  6. 95% Confidence Interval for Population Mean For a 95% Confidence Interval, the following becomes 14 - 6

  7. Lower limit Upper limit Confidence Interval for the Population Mean using the Normal Distribution 14 - 7

  8. Example 1 For  = 0.05 for the first of the random samples of size n = 5 from the population of body weights, we had 14 - 8

  9. Example 1 (contd.) 14 - 9

  10. 95% Confidence Intervals for samples n = 5 14 - 10

  11. Example 2 For  = 0.05 for the first of the random samples of size n = 20 from the population of body weights, we had 14 - 11

  12. Example 2 (contd.) 14 - 12

  13. 95% Confidence Intervals for samples n = 20 14 - 13

  14. 95% Confidence Intervals for samples n = 50 14 - 14

  15. Example 3 For  = 0.01 for the first of the random samples of size n = 5 from the population of body weights, we had 14 - 15

  16. Example 3 (contd.) 14 - 16

  17. For  = 0.01 for the first of the random samples of size n = 20 from the population of body weights, we had Example 4 14 - 17

  18. Example 4 (contd.) 14 - 18

  19. Confidence intervals for the population mean , are an estimation procedure with reasonable bounds about the sample mean , In general, the closer the bounds are to the point estimate, , the better the point estimate. The bounds are constructed in a manner that takes into account the variability of the point estimate. The bounds are also based on an appropriate probability distribution so that some reasonable probability statements can be made. Confidence Intervals 14 - 19

  20. Our confidence is in the process we used to generate a specific confidence interval and not in the specific interval itself. In general, we construct such intervals so that, should we repeat the process a large number of times, then 95%, for a 95% confidence interval, of such intervals should contain the population parameter being estimated by the point estimate and the confidence interval. 14 - 20

  21. The specific interval we compute in any given situation may or may not contain the population parameter. The only way for us to be sure that the population parameter is within the bounds of the confidence interval is to know the true value for this parameter. Obviously, if we knew the true value, we would not bother to go through the process of guessing at the truth with estimates. 14 - 21

  22. AJPH Example--Mean, SD, Variance, CI  In the following example (Table 1, Elola et al, AJPH, 1995, 85: p1398), the mean and SD for health expenditures per capita (US$) for the n = 7 countries with Social Security Systems are given. Questions: 1. What is your best guess as to the population mean for the population from which this sample was selected? 14 - 22

  23. What is the sample variance for the individual measures of health expenditures in this sample of size n = 7? • 3. Construct a 95% confidence interval for this population mean. For this calculation, assume that the population variance is $22,500 (dollars2) and that the population standard deviation is $150. • 4. What is the variance and standard deviation for the population of means of all possible samples of size • n = 7 for this situation? 14 - 23

  24. Source: AJPH, October 1995, 85:1398 14 - 24

  25. Suppose we have a random sample of n = 25 measurements of chest circumference from a population of newborns with  = 0.7 in. The sample mean is = 12.6 in.  A 95% confidence interval for  is: Another Example 14 - 25

  26. Questions 14 - 26

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