What is a Quadrillion?

1. What is a Quadrillion? Quadrillion BTU's Tire Pressure Efficiency BTU's Renewable Energy! Peak Oil Green House Gases Terrawatt Millions Barrels of Oil Train Loads of Coal CAFE Zeta Joules Billions of CuFt Nat Gas Megawatts

2. Understanding the Energy Crisis Reality vs Promises (Science vs. Political Science) Dr James Smiley

3. How Much Energy Does The World Use? Where Does it Come From? What are our options for the Future? Can Renewable Energy save us?

4. Projected World Wide Energy Needs What is this? How much is it?

5. “Let’s Define New Unit of Energy”Energy=Power x Time “1 Unit” =1000 Megawatts of electric power for 1 yr “A typical large power plant” ABOUT: 0.1 Quadrillion BTU’s • 2200 Megawatt thermal energy for one year • 9 million Megawatt-hrs electricity • 15 million barrels of oil or ~50 super tankers per yr • 3 million tons of coal ~ 36500 car loads per yr (train/day) • 90 billion cubic ft of Natural gas per yr (~1 cubic mile) • 1 ton Uranium per yr (about a 15”x15”x15” cube) • Energy for about 300,000 People in US for a year

6. World Wide Energy NeedsAll Energy-Not just Electrical ~7200 “Units” Today- ~5000 “Units” Growth 2% ~100 units/yr 2 a week!

7. World Energy Consumption by Source ~5000 Total Units Today Renewables Today! <1% “Approx Units” 1900 1150 1300 300 300 50

8. What about The United States Consumption? Sources?Future Needs?We use about 1000 Units!

9. Total Energy domestic/Imported Understanding the Energy Crisis 300 units 30 30 ~1000 “units” used today Growth rate ~2%/year or 20 “units” 230 units 200 units 120 units 80 units 30 units ea ~10 units (<1%) Solar, Wind, bio-mass Imported oil Canada 19% Mexico & S.Ara. 10%/ea Venezuela&Nig. 9%ea

10. World Energy use by fuel type Renewables 6% of total (hydro, wood, included. Growing yes, but, Percent shrinking?

11. Where is Crude Oil Consumed(USA) Personal Cars(About 10% of total energy) ~33% Trucking ~20% Planes and Ships ~10% Chemical Products(over 4000) ~12% Industrial Heat ~10% Heat, Light, Electric Power ~8% Miscellaneous ~7%

12. Products from Oil Nearly everything in our lives is made from oil, made by machinery and systems dependent on oil, and transported by oil Power. Ammonia, Anesthetics, Antihistamines, Artificial limbs, Artificial Turf, Antiseptics, Aspirin, Auto Parts, Awnings, Balloons, Ballpoint pens, Bandages, Beach Umbrellas, Boats, Cameras, Candles, Car Battery Cases, Carpets, Caulking, Combs, Cortisones, Cosmetics, Crayons, Credit Cards, Curtains, Deodorants, Detergents, Dice, Disposable Diapers, Dolls, Dyes, Eye Glasses, Electrical Wiring Insulation, Faucet Washers, Fishing Rods, Fishing Line, Fishing Lures, Food Preservatives, Food Packaging, Garden Hose, Glue, Hair Coloring, Hair Curlers, Hand Lotion, Hearing Aids, Heart Valves, Ink, Insect Repellant, Insecticides, Linoleum, Lip Stick, Milk Jugs, Nail Polish, Oil Filters, Panty Hose, Perfume, Petroleum Jelly, Rubber Cement, Rubbing Alcohol,  Shampoo, Shaving Cream, Shoes, Toothpaste, Trash Bags, Upholstery, Vitamin Capsules, Water Pipes, Yarn,……

13. Greenhouse Gas Emission GHGgCeq/kWh Source: Sokolov, IAEA, 2005

14. Let’s Look at Renewables! They’ve been a goal for a long time! They get a lot of political play; it’s politically correct! They would reduce Greenhouse gases vs coal/oil They won’t run out! Can they eliminate dependence on foreign oil? Can they save us?

15. Richard Nixon’s State of Union Address 1974 State of the Union (Who said it? When?) I urge the energy measures that I have proposed be made the first priority of this session of the Congress. …..They will prevent the injustice of windfall profits for a few as a result of the sacrifices of the millions of Americans. This must be the year in which we organize a full-scale effort to provide for our energy needs through the 21st century. Let this be our national goal: the United States will not be dependent on any other country for the energy we need ….we plan to spend $10 billion in Federal funds over the next 5 years. That is an enormous amount. But during the same 5 years, private enterprise will be investing as much as $200 billion-- and in 10 years, $500 billion--to develop the new resources, the new technology, the new capacity America will require for its energy needs in the future.

16. Jimmy Carter State of Union Address 1980 State of Union Address (Who said it? When?) … our country finally has a national energy policy: The windfall profits tax on crude oil has been enacted, and a massive investment in the production and development of alternative energy sources; Solar energy funding has been quadrupled, solar energy tax credits enacted…. Ethanol production has been dramatically increased, an amount that could enable ethanol to meet the demand for 10 percent of all unleaded gasoline; ..it is essential that the Nation reduce its dependence on imported fossil fuels and complete the transition to reliance on domestic renewable sources of energy,… …first step towards widespread introduction of renewable energy sources and established an ambitious national goal for the year XXXX of obtaining 20 percent of this Nation's energy from solar and renewable sources. As a result of these policies and programs… investments in renewable energy sources have grown significantly.

17. Renewable energy about 6% of Total Solar Heat Distribution of the 6% Wood stoves, etc Ethanol Wind farms (double this by 2008) i.e. Niagara Falls, Hoover Dam, Bonneville Dam, etc 58% i.e. Lock 7, NYSEG Mechanicville, etc

18. Government Subsidies Federal research funding by fuel 2005 Energy Policy Tax Incentives Clean cars $1.3B Clean coal $2.9B Efficiency $1.3B Oil/Gas $2.7B Renewables $3.2B Nuclear $1.6B Elect infra $1.5B General Atomics Corp. U.S. DOE Total: 14.5 Billion in 2005!

19. Why so little progress? Energy Density is very low! It’s the ENTROPY! “For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled.” —Richard Feynman One elephant and 100,000 mice have about the same biomass. Which do you want to try to harness to move a railcar? It’s possible, but how practical?

20. Area Required for “one unit” of power Wind 3000 turbines 40-70 square miles Solar Photovoltaic 40 square miles Bio Mass Ethanol 6000 square miles Bio Mass Wood 12000 square miles Bio gas 800 million chickens! Oil/Coal About 1 square mile Nuclear 0.3 square miles Saratoga County 844 sq miles Rhode Island 1000 sq miles

21. How to replace Foreign oil “300 units” (Plus 20 new “units” in demand per year) Options Conservation (a must!-part of assumed growth of only 2%) Renewables (Solar, Wind, Ethanol, Hydro, Geothermal, Bio-mass) Domestic Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear

22. Conservation: Must be part of any plan Some conservation in 2% growth Doing pretty good! (Next chart) We need to do more! Cars about 90 units. 10% increase in CAFÉ saves 9 units when all cars converted (~10yrs) Reduce our standard of living? Competitive economy requires abundant energy World energy demand is growing! (Without us!) Conserve yes, but can’t save out of the crisis!

23. Energy Use and Cost Population Growth Flat, with More Cars TV’s Electronics Central air Computers

24. “Standard of Living” vs Energy Use

25. Electrical Energy Use vs Quality of Life 1.0 Japan France UK 80% of the world’s population is below 0.8 on the UN’s Human Development Index (HDI) Prosperity Education Life span U.S. Canada Germany Australia Russia China 0.6 India Pakistan 0.3 4,000 8,000 12,000 Annual Electricity Use kWh/Capita

26. Why growth in demand? China, India, Brazil(CIB) 3 billion people United States 300 million (1/10th) China, India, Brazil ~1200 kwh/capita USA ~12000 kwh/capita When CIB usage goes from 1200 to 2400 kwh/capita, we would have to go “0” to keep world demand constant! CONCLUSION: Conservation yes! But we can’t save our way out of this!

27. Wind Power Fuel is free, renewable, non-polluting, it’s relatively simple! But: Wind Power is Intermittent (20 to 40% capacity factor) 40 to 70 square miles (3000 turbines) for 1000 MW But land may still be useable-pasture/crops/factories… Diffuse energy creates integration/synchronization issues Often not produced where needed-transmission Not grid friendly, need storage or Coal/Nuclear backup! Is it environmentally acceptable? On mountain peaks? Near population? Do as much as possible when feasible and economical.

28. Wind Installations Total Installed US capacity 16.8 Units-delivering about 5 units electrical!

29. Photo of Maple RidgeTug Hill NY

30. Maple Ridge Wind Farm 195 Turbines 320 MW installed capacity $550 Million cost 22000 Acres/34 sq miles 1.6 MW per turbine Lewis County, Tug Hill Plateau 1600 to 2000 feet elev Delivers about 0.1 “Unit” on average

31. Solar Power (World total installed about “16 units”-delivers about “4 units”) Lots of it, fuel is free, conceptually simple, passive But: Photovoltaic very costly per megawatt, high maintenance Solar Thermal costly-need mirrors + heat sink (in the desert?) Doesn’t work night/cloudy days, capacity factor less than 25% Energy density extremely low- 40 square miles for 1000MW Prime locations Southwest desert-far from users Not Grid friendly, need storage or coal/nuclear backup Home owners get 30% Fed tax credit Best use-small scale passive home heating, hot water, remote areas

32. Solar Photovoltaic Germany 6 MW .006 “Units” Nevada “planned” 6.3 MW .0063 units

33. Mohave Desert Solar Thermal About 0.5 “units” max capacity-0.1 “unit” delivered. Cost $3 Billion

34. HYDROELECTRIC Ideal for electric generation, very cost effective, no carbon dioxide emission, relatively simple. But: Water distribution diffuse but nature concentrates for us Not many remaining opportunities to exploit Environmental concern? – damming of wild rivers? Useful storage option where available-i.e. pump station It’s great, use as much as possible, but will be limited to about 5% of total needs (can we use tides?)

35. Hydroelectric Plants Hoover Dam 2 “Units” Niagara Falls 2.4 Units-USA 2 “Units” Canada

36. GEOTHERMAL Great source of zone heating and electric power where available. (Like Iceland) Large heat source deep in earths core, hard to get at, hard to extract large quantities Few accessible supplies-need both hot rocks and water There is a 50 degree F heat sink 10 feet down! How to use it? Do whenever feasible, but NOT readily available Possibilities? Maybe!

37. Geothermal Plant Nesjavellir Iceland 0.12 “Units” Plus hot water heating

38. Biomass Burning wood, converting corn or soy beans into ethanol, use vegetation to make diesel fuel, algae into diesel! It’s an attractive concept! It’s Renewable-can be replenished Plants take Carbon Dioxide back out of the air But: Uses a lot of land, Competes food supplies One acre of corn provides 40 or 50 gallons of Ethanol May use more energy than produced? One “unit” takes area greater than Rhode Island Not a good solution!

39. OIL/GASOLINE Provides 95% of Transportation, supports many Industrial Products, Transportation infrastructure is in place But: High carbon dioxide emission Cost rising rapidly Supplies limited- peak oil? Oil shale possibility-costly We need to import large amounts, economy vulnerable We’re vulnerable to “blackmail with many dollars going to our “enemies” Use for Transportation and Industrial Production. Drill-will need all we can get-Increase supplies!

40. Gap in Oil supply and need

41. Drilling and Crude oil Price

42. NATURAL GAS Provides most of the home and commercial heating(cheapest option), infrastructure in place, domestic supply, easily transported. High energy content. But:Upward pressures on price/demand Rapid growth in use for electrical generation; a more expensive option Usable for transportation, but need major infrastructure Available supplies should be used for home and commercial heating. Avoid excessive cost growth!

43. NEW ELECT CAPACITY(USA) Capacity Brought on Line by Fuel Type (1950-2004) 80,000 Other Petroleum Hydro Nuclear Nat’l Gas Coal MWe 40,000 “40 units” “20 units” 1950 1974 2001 Source: RDI PowerDat database. Last updated 9/15/03.

44. Coal It currently provides nearly 50% of our electric power-lowest cost. We have domestic supply. (Remember when it was used for heating and transportation?) But: High Carbon dioxide emission Mining and transport dirty and risky Environmental impact-strip mining, emissions Reality! Must remain a major energy source; probably more than current 50%. Invest in “clean coal technology”

45. Cost Comparison of Electrical Generation X Solar(35cents) Wind (6-9 cents) 12.0 2003 cents per kilowatt-hour Nuclear 1.72 Coal 1.80 Gas 5.77 Oil 5.53 10.0 8.0 X? 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Nuclear Energy Institute

46. New Coal Plant Prairie States Plant Illinois-Planned 1.6 “Units” A newer clean coal plant

47. Nuclear Power Provides 20% of our electric power; safe, clean, green, Equals coal with lowest electricity fuel cost. But: No new plants for 20 years Waste storage an issue-political? New plants have high initial construction cost Public acceptance Nuclear must be a major source of future energy . Can also be used for producing water and hydrogen. Can breed new fuel when needed!

48. Typical Nuclear Power Plant North Anna ESP Site

49. New Nuclear Plants World Nuclear Association, world-nuclear.org

50. Uranium Supply