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COSMO Status Report 2004 – 2005 Tiziana Paccagnella, ARPA-SIM

www.cosmo-model.org. Presentations available to be downloaded very soon. COSMO Status Report 2004 – 2005 Tiziana Paccagnella, ARPA-SIM. With the contribution of all the COSMO colleagues For more dedailed information …. COSMO Status Report 2004 – 2005 Tiziana Paccagnella, ARPA-SIM.

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COSMO Status Report 2004 – 2005 Tiziana Paccagnella, ARPA-SIM

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  1. www.cosmo-model.org Presentations available to be downloaded very soon COSMO Status Report 2004 – 2005Tiziana Paccagnella, ARPA-SIM With the contribution of all the COSMO colleagues For more dedailed information …. COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  2. COSMO Status Report 2004 – 2005Tiziana Paccagnella, ARPA-SIM • Organizational Structure of COSMO • Lokal-Modell (LM) Overview • Operational Applications of the LM • COSMO scientific activities • Future developments COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  3. Since 2004 the Romanian Meteorological Service is associated partner of COSMO COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  4. Rotach (MeteoSwiss) Adrian Papageorgiu Raspanti Organizational Structure of COSMO (3) COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  5. Activities Planning and Monitoring • STC meetings (2-3 times per year) & SPM • SAC (WP Coordinators + SPM) & Chairman of STC: ~ May: monitoring and review of the activities ~ Sept. (beginning): final check of past activities and preliminary planning Several inter & intra working groups workshops COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  6. COSMO Status Report 2003 – 2004Tiziana Paccagnella, ARPA-SMR • Organizational Structure of COSMO • Lokal-Modell (LM) Overview • Operational Applications of the LM • Activities of the COSMO WGs • Future developments COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  7. Lokal-Modell (LM): Dynamics and Numerics COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  8. Lokal-Modell (LM): Dynamics and Numerics COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  9. Lokal-Modell (LM): Physics COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  10. Lokal-Modell (LM): Physics COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  11. Lokal-Modell (LM) COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  12. Lokal-Modell (LM): data assimilation COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  13. Organizational Structure of COSMO • Lokal-Modell (LM) Overview • Operational Applications of the LM • Activities of the COSMO WGs • Future developments COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  14. Operational Application of LM COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  15. COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  16. Skip ► COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  17. LM at DWD COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  18. LME at DWD • Model Configuration Grid spacing: 0.0625° (~ 7 km) 665 x 657 grid points per layer 40 vertical layers; lowest at 10m Timestep: 40 sec Daily runs at 00, 12, 18 UTC, +78h • Boundary Conditions Interpolated GME forecasts with • Data Assimilation Nudging analysis scheme Variational soil moisture analysis SST analysis at 00 UTC Snow depth analysis every 6 hrs COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  19. 3.9 Lokal Modell aLMo atMeteoSwiss COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  20. 3.9 LAMIItaly COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  21. EURO LMItaly COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  22. Lokal Modell at HNMS COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  23. Lokal Modell at IMGW COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  24. Lokal Modell at NMA COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  25. LMK (LM Kürzestfrist) LMK Goals • Development of a model-based NWP system for very short range forecasts (2-18 h) of severe weather events on the meso- scale, especially those related to • deep moist convection (super- and multi-cell thunderstorms, squall-lines, MCCs, rainbands,...) • interactions with fine-scale topography(severe downslope winds, Föhn-storms, flash floodings, fog, ...) According to COSMO strategy, activities will be maily addressed to LM application at the meso-γ (Cloud Resolving Scale) LMK, started as a DWD project, is now included in the COSMO activities COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  26. LMK-Configuration LMK (LM Kürzestfrist) - Development of a very short range forecast modelM. Baldauf, A. Seifert, J. Förstner, T. Reinhardt, C.-J. Lenz, P. Prohl, K. Stephan, S. Klink, C. Schraff • grid length: dx = 2.8 km • direct simulation of the coarser parts of deep convection (!?) • interactions with fine scale topography • about 50 vertical layers, lowest layer in 22 m (new: 10 m) above ground • center of the domain 10° E, 50° N • 421 x 461 grid points • boundary values from LM (LME)(x = 7 km) COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  27. COSMO-LEPSat ECMWF More details later… COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  28. COSMO Status Report 2003 – 2004Tiziana Paccagnella, ARPA-SMR • Organizational Structure of COSMO • Lokal-Modell (LM) Overview • Operational Applications of the LM • Some activities of the COSMO WGs • Future developments COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  29. ASSIMILATION Activities of the past year COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  30. Some Highlights on activities related to Assimilationfrom the Overview by Christoph Schraffat the COSMO General Meeting 2005 • Latent Heat Nudging • main problems related to prognostic precipitation solved to a large degree • Multi-Sensor Humidity Analysis (incl. GPS-obs) • GPS tomography; operational production of hourly humidity profiles over Switzerland • Use of 1dVar Satellite Retrievals both for MSG and ATOVS data • Good example of efficient cooperation among Germany, Italy and Poland • Assimilation of Scatterometer Wind • First tests with LM planned for 12/05 • Evaluation / Monitoring / Tuning of Nudging • Soil Moisture Initialisation • ELDAS project finished- Soil moisture initialisation for multi-layer soil model implemented in LME with good results. • Snow Cover Analysis • DWD developed a version to incorporate snow mask into current snow analysis scheme (snow mask corrects result of snow analysis). Cloud mask product and its impact needs to be evaluated for longer periods. COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  31. Some outocomes from the COSMO 1-day workshop to discuss the COSMO strategy about Data Assimilation”from the Overview by Christoph Schraffat the COSMO General Meeting 2005 Long-term vision : how will / shall the NWP system look like in 2015 ? • PDFs: deliver not only deterministic forecasts, but a representation of the PDF (ensemble members with probabilities), particularly for the convective scale • resolution: global: 10 km , fine-mesh: x = 1 km • use of indirect observations at high frequency even more important • high-frequency update (DA + FC) • emphasis on ensemble techniques (FC + DA) • due to special conditions in convective scale (non-Gaussian pdf, balance flow-dependent and not well known, high non-linearity), DA split up into: • generalised DA for global + regional scale modelling ( variational DA) • separate DA for convective scale 1-day workshop to discuss the COSMO strategy about Data Assimilation COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  32. NUMERICAL METHODS Activities of the past year Advanced numerics seminar within the LM-User Seminar 6 to 8 March 2006 COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  33. Highlights on some activities related to Numericsfrom the overview by Juergen Steppelerat the COSMO General Meeting 2005 i + 1/2 i - 1/2 j + 1/2 j + 1/2 i, j j - 1/2 j - 1/2 i - 1/2 i + 1/2 LM-Z Expected advantages: • The atmosphere at rest can be represented in Z-coordinates, but not in terrain following coordinates • Stratiform clouds and low stratus are predicted better in LM-Z • Mountain and valley winds are better with LM-z • Precipitation amplitudes should be better with LM-Z, in particular maxima and minima near mountains Present status: • Realistic cases possible (Euler Version) • SL version now 3-d • Low stratus cases seem to have a problem after last modification of physics interface • New QPF cases were run • The QPF is improved significantly in all 4 available cases (1 Poland, 3 Greece) COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  34. Highlights on some on activities related to Numericsfrom the overview by Juergen Steppelerat the COSMO General Meeting 2005 Runge Kutta in LM: present status • RK exists in LM and is considered to be suitable for operational use • It offers approximation order 3 which should be sufficient for practical purposes • The scheme is a modification (shortcut) of the WRF scheme. Too little work concerning a deeper evaluation has been done (such as the investigation of conservation properties, physics interface). Skip ► COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  35. Highlights on some activities related to Numericsfrom the overview by Juergen Steppelerat the COSMO General Meeting 2005 Implicit Time Integration • Implicit integration is the basis for increasing efficiency by enlarging the timestep • Hydrostatic models reach savings of about a factor of 2 • Non-Hydrostatic so far did not realise a similar saving • By working on the implicit solution procedures LM could reach an efficiency gain of a factor of 2 COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  36. Highlights on some activities related to Numericsfrom the overview by Juergen Steppelerat the COSMO General Meeting 2005 Implicit Conclusions • A direct si- method was proposed • The method is based on a generalised Fourier Transform • The generalised FT is potentially as efficient as the FT (fast FT) • 1-d and 2-d tests have been performed COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  37. PHYSICS Activities of the past year COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  38. Highlights on some activities related to Physicsfrom the overview by Marco Arpagausat the COSMO General Meeting 2005 Surface transfer scheme and turbulence scheme • Single column model developed • Extended documentation almost ready Soil processes • Multi-layer soil model • Operational implementation of the multi-layer soil model • Usage of satellite derived (weekly updated) plant cover • Revision of external parameters for plants • Implementation of lake model into the LM • Intercomparison of soil models in the framework of soil moisture validation Shallow convection on the meso-γ scale • some tests with LMK Microphysics • Three-category ice scheme included COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  39. APPLICATIONS Activities of the past year COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  40. The COSMO-LEPS suite @ ECMWFsince June 2004 10 Representative Members driving the 10 Lokal Modell integrations (weighted according to the cluster populations) employing either Tiedtke or Kain-Fristch convection scheme (randomly choosen) 3 levels 500 700 850 hPa 4 variables Z U V Q d+3 d+4 d d+5 d+1 d+2 d-1 Cluster Analysis and RM identification Cluster Analysis and RM identification middle EPS 00 2 time steps youngest EPS 12 European area clustering period Complete Linkage • suite running every day at ECMWF managed by ARPA-SIM; • Δx ~ 10 km; 32 ML; • LM_3.15 since 18/4/2005; • fc length: 132h; • Computer time provided by the COSMO partners which are ECMWF member states. COSMO-LEPS Integration Domain COSMO-LEPS clustering area COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  41. Operational set-up • Additional products: • 1 deterministic run (ICs and 3-hourly BCs from the high-resolution deterministic ECMWF forecast) to assess the relative merits between deterministic and probabilistic approach (start at 12UTC; t = 132h); • 1 proxy run (ICs and 3-hourly BCs from ECMWF analyses) to “downscale” ECMWF information (start at 00UTC; t = 36h). Core products: 10 perturbed LM runs(ICs and 6-hourly BCs from 10 EPS members) to generate probabilistic output (start at 12UTC; t = 132h); From 1 July 2005, COSMO-LEPS forecasts are archived on MARS at ECMWF (class=co). Skip ► COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  42. Archiving of C0SMO-LEPS products • Deterministic run (fc+0h to fc+132h every 3h). • Ensemble Prediction System: • 10 perturbed forecasts (fc+0h to fc+132h every 3h): • PLEV (500, 700, 850 hPa): Z, RH, T. • SURF: albedo, LCC, MCC, TCC, SW radiation flux, CAPE, hzerocl, snowlmt, mslp, T_2m, Td_2m, TMAX_2m, TMIN_2m, U_10m, V_10m, UVMAX_10m, large-scale rain, convective rain, large-scale snow, TP. • Forecast probability (various intervals and thresholds): • SURF: CAPE, hzerocl, TMAX_2m, TMIN_2m, UVMAX_10m, TP, snowfall, showalter index. • Clustering information (population, clustering variable used, …). From 1 July 2005, COSMO-LEPS forecasts are archived on MARS at ECMWF (class=co). back archiving of past runs (from 5/11/2002 onwards) will start soon. COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  43. COSMO–LEPS verification (SON 2004) COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  44. Highlights on some activities related to Applicationsfrom the overview by Pierre Eckertat the COSMO General Meeting 2005 ENSEMBLECOSMO-LEPS The impact of moist singular vectors and ensemble size on predicted storm tracks for the winter storms Lothar and Martin Evaluation of the COSMO-LEPS forecasts for the floods in Switzerland in August 2005 and further recent results…Use of Multi-Model Super-Ensemble Technique for complex orography weather forecast Multimodel Ensemble and SuperEnsemble permit a strong improvement of all the considered variables with respect to direct model output.First experiments toward the new SREPS system. Perturbation oh Physics. One case done (not completely)Interpretation of the new high-resolution model LMK Using information of a single model forecast by applying theNeighbourhood Method Using information resulting from LMK forecasts that are started every 3 h (LAF- Ensemble) COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  45. VERIFICATION Activities of the past year COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  46. Summary of verification results • strong negative bias of 2m-temperature during winter • strong overestimation of precipitation, especially during winter • strong overestimation af small wind gusts • general overestimation of wind speed for stations over flat terrain (especially during night) • strong phase shift of maximum in the daily cycle of precipitation during summer time (maximum occurs too early in the forecasts) COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  47. Summary of verification results • overestimation of high cloud covers • overestimation of amplitude of dew point (especially during winter) • negative temperature bias in the boundary layer and during winter in the whole model atmosphere, positive temperature bias in the middle troposphere during summer. • MSLP negative bias, especially during summer for GME driven LM’s COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  48. Joint WG3-WG5 workshop (9.3.2005) Conditional verification (excerpt from the minutes): • WG3 provides a list of criteria to use for conditional verification. [done] • WG5 is invited to provide a tool (‘data finding tool’) that allows to easily and efficiently find days / grid-points which satisfy specific criteria. • WG5 is kindly asked to supply a conditional verification of the operational model suites on a regular basis. • Testing of the reference version should also include conditional verifications. COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  49. IMPLEMENTATION and REFERENCE VERSION Activities of the past year COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

  50. LM: Changes in the last yearfrom the overview by Ulrich Schaettlerat the COSMO General Meeting 2005 • LM Version 3.13: 03.12.04 • Changes to the new multi-layer soil model • Introduction of the Graupel scheme • Introduction of a 3D turbulence scheme (only for Runge-Kutta scheme) • Introduction of the Latent Heat Nudging • Introduction of a second option for the Rayleigh damping • LM Version 3.14: 25.01.05 • Mainly bug corrections and updates to the new schemes • LM Version 3.15 03.03.05 • Aerosol bug fix • Technical changes for LME • Introduction of Namelist variable nunit_of_time • LM Version 3.16: 22.07.05 • Update of Runge-Kutta scheme • Modification to prognostic TKE scheme • Update of multi-layer soil model • New external parameters for evergreen and deciduous forest • And of course: Bug corrections… • . Next Reference Version: LM 4.1 COSMO Report – Tiziana Paccagnella - SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia

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