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C olorado: “ A B attleground for P residential P olitics”

C olorado: “ A B attleground for P residential P olitics”. Progressive 15 Northeast Colorado September 17, 2008 Floyd Ciruli Ciruli Associates. Convention – Good for Colorado 38 Million Watch. Hickenlooper/Denver are winners State Democrats exposure Reinforces state is battleground.

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C olorado: “ A B attleground for P residential P olitics”

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  1. Colorado: “ABattleground for Presidential Politics” Progressive 15 Northeast Colorado September 17, 2008 Floyd Ciruli Ciruli Associates Ciruli Associates

  2. Convention – Good for Colorado38 Million Watch • Hickenlooper/Denver are winners • State Democrats exposure • Reinforces state is battleground Democratic National Convention “Good for Colorado” Ciruli Associates, N550 voters, August 6, 2008 Question: Do you believe that holding the Democratic National Convention in Denver the third (fourth) week of August will be good for the State of Colorado or bad for the state? Ciruli Associates 2008

  3. McCain vs. ObamaBounce Meets Bounce Democrats Have Good Convention Republicans Gain Momentum • Friday morning bounce, Gallup 8 points • Party unity • Economic focus/plan offered • Frame choice: Bush/McCain vs. Obama/Biden • Palin effect – 37 million watch • National security focus • Character, independence, reform • Now ahead in polls Ciruli Associates 2008

  4. The Race to the Finish The Debates Sept. 26: 1st presidential debate, Oxford, MI Oct. 2: Vice presidential debate, St. Louis, MO Oct. 7: 2nd presidential debate, Nashville, TN Oct. 15: 3rd presidential debate, Hempstead, NY Nov. 4: Election Day Obama McCain PollDate(D)(R)Spread RCP Average 9/5-9/15 45.3 46.1 McCain +0.8 Gallup Tracking 9/13-9/15 46 47 McCain +1 Rasmussen Tracking 9/13-9/15 47 48 McCain +1 Fox News 9/8-9/9 42 45 McCain +3 Gallup Tracking 9/7-9/9 43 48 McCain +5 NBC/WSJ 9/6-9/8 46 45 Obama +1 ABC/Washington Post 9/5-9/7 47 49 McCain +2 CBS News 9/1-9/3 42 42 Tie Gallup Tracking 9/1-9/3 49 42 Obama +7 Rasmussen Tracking 8/28-8/30 47 43 Obama +4 Gallup Tracking 8/27-8/29 49 41 Obama +8 CNN 8/23-8/24 47 47 Tie USA Today/Gallup 8/21-8/23 48 45 Obama +3 Ciruli Associates from Real Clear Politics, Rasmussen 2008 Ciruli Associates 2008

  5. Age of AnxietyState’s Mood Turns Down • 47% said right direction, 63% in Sept. 2007 • African-American – 63% right direction Younger Voters Upbeat, Older Worried Ciruli Associates, N500, July 2008 Question: Overall, would you say things are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track here in Colorado? Ciruli Associates 2008

  6. Colorado Remains on Battleground List • Obama leads most of June and July • Then lead exchanges in late July and August • In first September polls race remains close “We’re talking presidential gridlock here,” Floyd Ciruli, Rocky Mountain News, 9-13-08 Colorado: McCain vs. Obama Obama McCain PollDateSample(D)(R)Spread RCP Average 9/11-9/14 -- 47.3 46.7 Obama +0.6 Fox/Rasmussen 9/14-9/14 500 LV 46 48 McCain +3 Fox/Rasmussen 9/7-9/7 500 LV 49 46 Obama +3 CNN/Time 8/24-8/26 670 RV 46 47 McCain +1 Quinnipiac 8/15-8/21 1060 RV 46 47 McCain +1 Denver Post 8/13-8/15 400 LV 46 43 Obama +3 Rocky Mtn News/CBS4 8/11-8/13 500 RV 41 44 McCain +3 Ciruli Associates 2008

  7. Colorado Politics Shifts to Blue • Gary Hart: Manifesto: Democrats and the West, Fall 2006 • Fred Barnes: The Colorado Model, Weekly Standard, 7/21/08 • Ryan Lizza: The Code of the West, New Yorker, 8/22/08 • Colorado economic downturn shifts agenda to left and away from social issues. Economy changes to high tech and service. • Rapid growth of new voters in suburbs, exurbs and I-70 corridor split tickets, register more independent (1,023 Republicans, 1,021 Unaffiliated, 945 Democrats) • Colorado Republicans divided on fiscal and social issues. Face tough primaries. • Growth of Democratic bench and support infrastructure (money, think tanks, blogs). Candidates position in the middle. • National Republican fortunes decline Ciruli Associates 2008

  8. The Code of the WestOne Theory of Colorado Electorate • Core conservatives and liberals don’t shift • Government pragmatists pro-choice and want solutions • Moral pragmatists like limits, but minimum conflict Gary Hart “We are now at the cusp...of the end of the Nixon-Reagan-Bush era. Obama is poised, if he is bold enough, to be a transformational president...” New Yorker, Ryan Lizza, July 10, 2008 Ciruli Associates 2008

  9. U.S. Senate Race “The real test for Democrats will be if they pick up a senate seat,” Floyd Ciruli Colorado Senate Udall Schaffer PollDateSample(D)(R)Spread RCP Average 8/5-8/24 -- 45.0 38.0 Udall +7 Suffolk 8/21-8/24 450 LV 39 31 Udall +8 Denver Post 8/13-8/15 400 LV 47 37 Udall +10 Rocky Mtn News/CBS4 8/11-8/13 500 RV 44 38 Udall +6 Rasmussen 8/13-8/13 500 LV 50 42 Udall +8 PPP (D) 8/5-8/7 933 LV 47 41 Udall +6 Quinnipiac 7/14-7/22 1425 LV 44 44 Tie Ciruli Associates from Real Clear Politics, Rasmussen 2008 Ciruli Associates 2008

  10. Public Opinion Shifts on Energy Supply Pew Poll Shows Americans Shifting Toward Traditional Sources QuestionsFeb. 2008June 2008Change More exploration/mining/drilling and power plants 35% 47% +12% vs. More conservation/regulation 55 45 -10% Develop new energy sources 54 60 +6% vs. Protect the environment 36 34 -2% Favor drilling in ANWR 42 50 +8% Ciruli Associates reformatted Pew Poll 2008 “We are a completely committed recreational state and by and large, we recreate with gas. We load up the SUV and go to the mountains,” Floyd Ciruli, pollster, MSNBC Tom Curry, 8-2-08 “High gas prices have changed the political dynamics in Colorado,” Floyd Ciruli, pollster, Wall Street Journal, 7-28-08 Ciruli Associates 2008

  11. In Colorado, Offshore DrillingAttracts the Independent Voter • On July 24, gas prices become top issue, and Obama and McCain tied (33% each) on who has best program to solve energy crisis now • Republicans finally find an issue with some traction; McCain up by 2, Senate race tied Offshore Drilling in Protected Areas TotalRep.Dem.Ind. Support 59% 82% 34% 57% Oppose 37 15 60 40 Don’t know/NA 4 3 5 4 Quinnipiac, July 24, 2008 “We had begun to think there was a very significant Democratic advantage, but ($4-per-gallon gasoline) shows us how quickly an issue can energize and change the dynamics of a race,” Floyd Ciruli, pollster, Rocky Mountain News, 7-25-08 Question: To help solve the energy crisis and make America less dependent on foreign oil, do you support or oppose drilling for new oil supplies in currently protected areas offshore? Ciruli Associates 2008

  12. But Colorado Voters Still Like Renewables • Obama says energy compromise is necessary, Washington Post, 8-3,08 • Udall energy plan includes offshore drilling, Rocky Mountain News, 8-14-08 • Salazar pushes offshore drilling, Denver Post, 8-22-08 Majority of Public Wants Balanced Approach Renewable energy 54% Drilling 21 Nuclear power 9 High mileage cars 5 Strategic Reserve 4 Don’t know/NA 7 Quinnipiac, July 24, 2008 Question: Which is the best way to help solve the energy crisis and make America less dependent on foreign oil – A) building new nuclear power plants, B) drilling offshore and in Alaska, C) developing renewable energy sources like solar power, wind power and biofuels, D) releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, or E) mandating higher mileage standards for cars? Ciruli Associates 2008

  13. Increase State Severance Tax • 41% support/37% oppose/22% don’t know Amendment 58 “I think its success will, indeed, give him bragging rights and momentum. If it loses, I think he will be weakened by the loss,” Floyd Ciruli, pollster, Grand Junction Sentinel, 8-2-08 Ciruli Associates, N500, July/August 2008 Question: Increase the state severance tax $321 million dollars annually by removing the local property tax exemption. The increased tax funding would go to college scholarships, wildlife programs, alternative energy research, and local transportation and water projects. Ciruli Associates 2008

  14. School Fund, Suspend TABOR Spending Rules, Eliminate Amendment 23 • 48% support/32% oppose/19% don’t know Amendment 59 Ciruli Associates, N500, July/August 2008 Question: Create a fund for preschool to 12th grade education from revenue that the State of Colorado would have refunded to taxpayers by permanently suspending the TABOR amendment rules related to limited government spending. Eliminate the requirement that statewide per-pupil funding grow at least the rate of inflation and create a savings account for education. Ciruli Associates 2008

  15. Increase the Number of Signaturesfor Constitutional Amendment • 35% support/29% oppose/36% don’t know Referendum O Ciruli Associates, N500, July/August 2008 Question: Increase the number of signatures required to place a constitutional measure on the ballot and require signatures on constitutional measure to be gathered from each of the state’s congressional districts. It reduces the number of signatures to place a state statute on the ballot and restricts any changes by the state legislature for five years. Ciruli Associates 2008

  16. Labor Peace Ends Will There be any Winners? Business/Government • Amendment 47: Right to work – Private • Amendment 49: Prohibit paycheck deduction – Public • Amendment 54: Prohibit sole-source contributions – Public Labor • Amendment 53: Criminal liability – Private • Amendment 55: Just cause – Private • Amendment 56: Health insurance – Private • Amendment 57: Safe workplace – Private Ciruli Associates 2008

  17. Water, the Third Rail of Colorado Politics • 92% of voters believe a “dependable supply of water” very important to strong economy. • Referendum A loses. Carries no county, but started ahead. • In a telephone interview with the Pueblo Chieftain “...the water compact that Colorado and other upper basin states have with California and a region should be renegotiated,” U.S. Senator John McCain said, 8-15-2008 • Senator Salazar, “...only happen over my dead body.” • “My recent remarks may have been mistakenly construed...Let me be clear that I do not advocate renegotiations of the compact.” 8-20-08 Divisions among water stakeholders keep Colorado in policy gridlock. Is Colorado vulnerable because it does not claim its Colorado River entitlement? Ciruli Associates 2008

  18. Impact on Colorado • Record turnout • Aggressive and expensive campaigns • Independent voters key target • National advertising • Energy and environment major issue • Close election • Repeated presidential visits Colorado, the battleground state Ciruli Associates 2008

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