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IUGG Sapporo, 7 July 2003, MC08, FUTURE CHANGES IN GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CLIMATE

IMPACT OF POSSIBLE FUTURE CLIMATE ON COASTAL WINDS, STORM SURGES AND WAVE CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH SEA. Hans VON STORCH, Arnt PFIZENMAYER, Ralf WEISSE, Katja WOTH, Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Center, Geesthacht, Germany.

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IUGG Sapporo, 7 July 2003, MC08, FUTURE CHANGES IN GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CLIMATE

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  1. IMPACT OF POSSIBLE FUTURE CLIMATE ON COASTAL WINDS, STORM SURGES AND WAVE CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH SEA Hans VON STORCH, Arnt PFIZENMAYER, Ralf WEISSE, Katja WOTH,Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Center, Geesthacht, Germany IUGG Sapporo, 7 July 2003, MC08, FUTURE CHANGES IN GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CLIMATE

  2. Series of EU projects • WASA (1995-97) • STOWASUS (1998-2001) • PRUDENCE (2001-2003)

  3. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K WASA results: 5 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment WASA: Mögliche Änderung der Windgeschwindigkeit der größten Stürme bei CO2 Verdopplung STOWASUS: Ein ähnliches Szenario WASA, 1998. North Sea wind: increase of up to 0.5 m/s (10%ile)

  4. WASA results: 5 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment Kauker and Langenberg, 2001 Storm related sea level: + 5 cm Mean water level: +10 cm

  5. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K WASA results: 5 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment Langenberg et al., 1999

  6. WASA results: 5 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment Langenberg et al., 1999

  7. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K WASA results: 5 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment Zukünftige Szenarien WASA: Mögliche Änderung der Höhen der größten Wellen bei CO2 Verdopplung Günther et a., 1998 CDV-2075: Mögliche Änderung des Überspülens von Deichen bei CO2 Zunahme North Sea waveheight: increase of up to 0.5 m (10%ile)

  8. STOWASUS results: 30 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment North Sea wind: increase of up to 2 m/s (0.1%ile) Andersen et al., 2001

  9. STOWASUS results: 30 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment North Sea elevation: increase of up to 20 cm (estimated 50 yr return values) North Sea elevation: increase of up to 40 cm (estimated 50 yr return values) Kaas et al., 2001 RIKZ Flather and Wiliams, 2000

  10. STOWASUS results: 30 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment North Sea waveheight: increase of up to 0.5 m (0.1%ile) Kaas et al., 2001

  11. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K PRUDENCE results: RCM downscaling of HADCM3 A2 scenario, 2070-2100 Rossby Center RCAO simulation Ralf Weisse, 2003

  12. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K PRUDENCE results: RCM downscaling of HADCM3 A2 scenario, 2070-2100 Rossby Center RCAO simulation Katja Woth, 2003

  13. Conclusions • Over the years, several projections for the changing storm and storm impact statistics in the North Sea area, related to anthropogenic arming, have been constructed. • These projects WASA, STOWASUS and PRUDENCE have been or are funded by the European Commission.

  14. Conclusions The scenarios indicate uniformly for the North Sea: • A slight increase of higher wind percentiles of up to 0.5-2 m/s. • A slight increase of storm surge levels, of up to 20-40 cm. • A slight increase in significant wave height of up to 0.5 m.

  15. PRUDENCE regional scenarios Dynamically downscaled from HADAM3H Climate change Temperature Winter Climate change Precipitation Winter Ole Bøssing Christensen, 2003

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