Australasian Housing Researcher’s Conference Brisbane 20-23 June 2007

1. Australasian Housing Researcher’s ConferenceBrisbane 20-23 June 2007 Michael Lennon

2. Overview: • Outline desirable characteristics of housing policy and systems • Reflect on UK experience, particularly in Glasgow • Comment on contemporary housing issues in Australia • Indicate some potential areas for future research

3. The Power of Ideas Practice Research Policy

4. The Scope of Government Action Housing Systems Government Intervention HOUSING MARKETS DEMAND MARKET REGULATION SUPPLY Building Act etc Planning schemes Residential Tenancies Act DIRECT INDIRECT Deposit Assistance Mortgage Finance Rent Assistance e.g: Public Housing Public/Third Sector Partnerships Public/ Private Sector Joint Ventures

5. Some Critical Issues for Effective Housing Policy Investment Requirements • Defining housing need, conditions, and standards Funding Options • Public subsidy, subsidy neutrality, public capital, private capital Government – the market – the non market sectors • Efficiency/ effectiveness • Short term/ long term • Interfaces with other spheres – labour market, social development, regional growth etc Institutional Forms • Government, corporations, quangos, municipal housing, community based housing, cooperative models, joint ventures etc.

6. Some Widespread (recent) Housing Policy Shifts • Reduced real government outlays on housing capital • Extensive promotion of off-balance sheet and privately funded provision of low income housing • A shift away from grants and loans to income related, and means tested housing subsidies. • A shift in emphasis from new housing provision to regeneration, renewal and other limited investments

7. The UK Experience • Progressive decline in direct funding to publicly-owned housing since the early 1980’s • Preference for not-for-profit sector based upon: • quality • responsiveness/participation • cost/efficiency • demands on public spend • Private finance now in place • annual investment more than two billion pounds • mature sector – 150 lenders • More than 1 million dwellings now transferred However..... • This has taken more than 20 years • Asset transfer has been a key driver • Debt write off by treasury has under-pinned momentum.

8. Glasgow – Economic and Social Transformation • C19th mercantile hub, tobacco and textiles • Rapid expansion, population growth, urbanisation, multi-culturalism • Technology, arts, political economy • Engineering, heavy industry and ship-building

9. Glasgow –Economic and Social Collapse • Two world wars, masking underlying decline • 1960’s – ‘the Red Clydesiders’ • 1980’s – no shipyards • 20 years – 40% population decline • 20-25% registered unemployed • Violence, sectarianism, poor health

10. Glasgow’s Past and Present Tenement Slums - C19th • Tenement slums a product of rapid industrialisation • “Gerry built” by exploitative landlords • Mass overcrowding due to high density construction • Low wage economy, low rents • Sizeable proportion of what remains is popular, but some is not

11. Glasgow’s past and present Victorian Glasgow could also be gracious – GHA has tenants in some of the flats on the left. Glasgow is still a gracious city.

12. Glasgow’s Past and Present Garden City Suburbs - 1920s & 1930s • Suburban housing, built in large estates, Riddrie, Knightswood and Mosspark • Well built houses, not tenements, but many four-in-a-block, well sited within good urban design • Housed the elite working class, who could pay high rent • Remains popular housing

13. Glasgow’s Past and Present Slum Clearance - 1930s • In-fill housing built within old urban core gap sites, e.g. Blackhill • Subsidy system ensured concrete tenement blocks for poor large families • Replaced one physical ghetto for another social one • Lower rent, basic brutal standards but initially tense management • Highly unpopular, with most being demolished in last 5 years despite recent refurbishment

14. Glasgow’s Past and Present Some later investments were less successful – cold, unattractive and unloved. These flats have had new investment … money well spent?

15. Glasgow’s Past and Present Peripheral Estates - 50s & 60s • Soul-less council housing estates built on vast peripheral locations to deal with endemic overcrowding • Macmillan’s Conservative housing: bulk procurement housing which was stacked high to keep them cheap • Seen as the salvation to overcrowding • Built in a cheap energy era, with refurbishment always failing to catch up

16. Glasgow’s Past and Present Fitting the canopies above the doors, planting trees – a forlorn attempt to add cheer

17. Glasgow’s Past and Present Decks and High-rises 60s & 70s • High density, built wherever there was a gap, spreading right across the city, due to ‘green belt’ restrictions • Glasgow the UK No.1 high-rise city, with bulk procurement throwing up 25,000 units between 1962 and 1972 • Built as the last salvation for tenement slum dwellers • Expensive to refurbish, maintain and manage

18. Glasgow’s Past and Present People in houses like these tell us they want a house with a front and a back door, and a garden

19. Glasgow’s Past and Present Tenement Renewal - 70s & 80s • Addressed the large residual problem of slum clearance • Some provide popular inner city housing, others do not • Physical environment has improved, but socially got weaker due to needs allocations • Most well maintained, at reasonable rents • Thirty-year life is up, so what future?

20. Glasgow’s Past and Present The famous Red Road Flats – large family houses, clad in asbestos. If they are demolished, it will have to be piece by piece.

21. Glasgow’s Past and Present Tenements are a popular and traditional Glasgow house type, and housing associations still build them.

22. Glasgow’s Past and Present Housing Associations also build homes like these – the aspiration of many tenants.

23. Glasgow Housing – What Went Wrong? The Housing Revenue Account – 20 years of unresolved policy From 184,000 houses in 1981 to 82,000 in 2003 Right to Buy – 42,000 houses transferred to individual ownership Community Based Housing Association transfers – now 40,000 homes – the preferred model High rents, no investment Spiralling debt – £900m -50% of rents paying debt Residualisation – the tenancy of last resort (the crushing of municipal housing) Stock Transfer – the deadlock broken

24. The Size of the Programme £900 million debt written off £650 million in grants £725 million in borrowings

25. The Size of the Programme 80,000 houses in ownership now £4 billion investment over 30 years 3,000 new homes to be built by GHA - 3,000 by others At least 14,000 demolitions (by year 10) Major upgrading across the city

26. Funding the Programme

27. Funding Structure

28. Public Policy Blending public and private capital Applying business-like disciplines Sharing risks between owners and lenders Community empowerment – breaking up the monolith Leverage –producing jobs, community facilities, workspaces, prosperity Consciously creating a new housing system – the current controversy Separating housing (and political) interest from housing sources, investment and regeneration.

29. “Regeneration” “Renewal” “Revitalisation” – Some Common Elements • Quality of Life • Transformation • Sustainability • Choice & Demand .... but how are these translated, measured and monitored?

30. “Go Well”- A sustained examination of how national policy goals for communities, regeneration and health are achieved at the local level. • Independent monitoring and evaluation of GHA • Centre for Population Health • University of Glasgow • NHS Scotland • 10 year monitoring and evaluation • Independent reporting • ‘Active’ research: • Housing • Regeneration • Communities • Governance • Health

31. Adjustment Aesthetics Accessibility Amenities & Services Successful Regeneration Activity Autonomy Attitudes Aspirations

32. Accessibility • Use of a car only 20-30% in deprived areas • Accessibility • Permeability • Mobility • Socio-spatial integration

33. Amenities & Services • Opportunities for healthy activities/purposes • Vibrancy • The ‘feel’ of a place • Use of local amenities by higher income group? • Attractiveness to newcomers

34. Activity: Education • No educational Qualifications: • ‘Worst’ areas = 60-70% adults • ‘Best’ areas = 10-15% adults • Participation in Higher Education: • Least affluent areas = <20% 17 year olds • Most affluent areas = 40 – 70%

35. Activity: Community • Acting as a ‘volunteer’: twice as high in affluent areas. • Belonging to clubs etc: one-and-a-half times as high in affluent areas. • Taking action to solve local problems: one-and-a-half times as high in deprived areas. • Feeling isolated: one-in-five people in most deprived areas, twice affluent rate.

36. Attitudes to Health Comparing ‘worst’ and ‘best’ communities in West of Scotland: • Alcohol related hospital admissions: 4 times higher in deprived areas. • Problem drug users & drug-related deaths: 5-10 times higher • Smoking rates: 3-4 times higher

37. Aspirations & Expectations In the most deprived areas in Scotland: • A fifth of people think their neighbourhood is a poor place to live. • One-in-ten people dislike the poorly maintained and run down area. • One-in-twenty dislike poor shops, poor schools and poor visual outlook.

38. Go-Well Research Components • Ecological study of city-wide changes • Community health and well-being study • Tracking study of mobile and displaced households • Qualitative study of governance, participation and neighbourhood change. • “Nested studies”

39. Key Trends in Australasian Housing Policy-” from shelter to wealth accumulation” • Progressive decline in housing affordability • Owned • Privately rented • Publicly rented • Rise in demand – side interventions • Rent Assistance • Deposit Assistance • Decline in public housing • Some experimentation in social housing/non-market providers

40. Contemporary Policy Proposals • Expansion of private rental market through additional incentives • Attraction of Institutional investors into affordable housing • Reform and expansion of public and social housing

41. Public and Social Housing • Now less than 5% of housing provision (and declining) • Operating deficits in most States – transparent model in NZ • Long-term capital requirements • refurbishment • replacement • to maintain proportions, a major challenge • Social Housing • tentative • modest

42. Expansion of Social Housing • Independent, non-profit – delivering sub-market rents – accountable to tenants and sector interests • Grant Requirements: • operating • seed capital • acquisition and development grants • Leverage • rent • debt • Equity Participation?

43. Some Potential Areas for Future Research (i) The relative value and impacts of alternative supply-side responses • Public housing • ‘Non market’ providers • Private rental providers

44. Some Potential Areas for Future Research • Evaluation of management models for social housing; impact on tenant outcomes • Government • Intermediate sector • Private

45. Some Potential Areas for Future Research (iii) Systems Reform in Public Housing • Effective, flexible, market-oriented asset management • Single tenure/multiple tenure • ‘Cultural impacts’ of existing management methods –eg. waiting lists • Tenant participation and control – whose asset? Whose gain?

46. Some Potential Areas for Future Research • Long term impacts of stock concentration and targeting - Inter-generational impacts? - Social/inclusion/labour market anticipation • Public asset values • (demolition video - next slide) • Child “potential”-Heckman • Evaluation of “Mixed Communities”

47. Movie Clip

48. Some Potential Areas for Future Research • Theoretically – informed research - Constructionist theory – contemporary understanding of the concept of ‘home’ ‘community’ and ‘neighbourhood’. • Critical realism – applications in housing studies • ‘Social capital’ – applications in housing estates • Neo-liberalism in economics – market principles in housing systems, creation of quasi-markets amongst providers, contestability amongst providers, impacts of tenure on asset utilisation.

49. The Power of Ideas Practice Research Policy