Vladimir Matskovsky

1. Tree-Ring Laboratory Institute of Geography RAS Moscow, Russia Climatic signal in tree-ring width chronologies of European Russia: spatial change and perspectives for paleoclimatic reconstructions Vladimir Matskovsky Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russiamatskovsky@igras.ru PAGES 2nd Young Scientists Meeting The Past: A Compass for Future Earth 11-12 February 2013, Goa, India

2. Motivation • Tree rings are a unique source of paleoclimatic information because of precise dating of each proxy value • European part of Russia is still poorly studied in terms of dendroclimatology, comparing to neighboring regions: Fennoscandia and Urals Mountains • Long tree-ring width chronologies have mostly been used for dendrochronological dating and haven’t been analyzed for its paleoclimatic potential • Global map of high-resolution reconstructions is lacking data from this region 2/24 Vladimir MatskovskyClimatic signal in tree-ring width chronologies of European Russia

3. Motivation “…chronological errors will accumulate back in time as missing rings are encountered.” 3/24 Vladimir MatskovskyClimatic signal in tree-ring width chronologies of European Russia

4. Constructing long chronologies for European Russia 70°N 60°E 50°N 20°E 4/24 Vladimir MatskovskyClimatic signal in tree-ring width chronologies of European Russia

5. Identifying climatic signal: objectives The main objective: To extract climatic signal from tree-ring width chronologies of conifers in European Russia • Tasks: • To test correlations with different climatic parameters that can possibly influence tree growth • To compare long chronologies with climatic reconstructions • To identify weather conditions in “pointer years” for the instrumental period • To compare “pointer years” of long chronologies with historical data about extreme climatic events 5/24 Vladimir MatskovskyClimatic signal in tree-ring width chronologies of European Russia

6. Identifying climatic signal: materials and methods Chronologies of living trees • Pine (Pinussylvestris ) • Spruce (Piceaabies, obovata) •  Larch (Larixsibirica) 6/24 Vladimir MatskovskyClimatic signal in tree-ring width chronologies of European Russia

7. Identifying climatic signal: materials and methods Climate data • Daily and monthly precipitation and temperature values from more then 200 meteostations • Gridded meteodata, 0,5° latitude and longitude (CRU TS 3.0) • Model data: Soil moisture, Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Reanalysis. • Atmospheric circulation indexes: NAO, SCAND, etc. 7/24 Vladimir MatskovskyClimatic signal in tree-ring width chronologies of European Russia

8. Identifying climatic signal: materials and methods Methods • Correlation analysis • Pointer years analysis • Comparison with historical data • Comparison with climate reconstructions 8/24 Vladimir MatskovskyClimatic signal in tree-ring width chronologies of European Russia

9. Identifying climatic signal: results PineMinimum air temperatures(May-August) Climatic response of tree ring chronologies 9/24 Vladimir MatskovskyClimatic signal in tree-ring width chronologies of European Russia

10. Identifying climatic signal: results PineSoil moisture (May) Climatic response of tree ring chronologies 10/24 Vladimir MatskovskyClimatic signal in tree-ring width chronologies of European Russia

11. Identifying climatic signal: results PinePalmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)(July) Climatic response of tree ring chronologies 11/24 Vladimir MatskovskyClimatic signal in tree-ring width chronologies of European Russia

12. Identifying climatic signal: results PineWet day frequency(June-July) Climatic response of tree ring chronologies 12/24 Vladimir MatskovskyClimatic signal in tree-ring width chronologies of European Russia

13. Identifying climatic signal: results SpruceMean air temperatures(June-July) Climatic response of tree ring chronologies 13/24 Vladimir MatskovskyClimatic signal in tree-ring width chronologies of European Russia

14. Identifying climatic signal: results SprucePrecipitation(July) Climatic response of tree ring chronologies 14/24 Vladimir MatskovskyClimatic signal in tree-ring width chronologies of European Russia

15. Identifying climatic signal: results LarchMinimum air temperatures(June) Climatic response of tree ring chronologies 15/24 Vladimir MatskovskyClimatic signal in tree-ring width chronologies of European Russia

16. Identifying climatic signal: results LarchRelative air humidity(August) Climatic response of tree ring chronologies 16/24 Vladimir MatskovskyClimatic signal in tree-ring width chronologies of European Russia

17. Identifying climatic signal: results Weather conditions forming pointer years VI-VII VI-VII V-VIII V-VIII IV-IX IV-IX X-III X-III X-IX X-IX 17/24 Vladimir MatskovskyClimatic signal in tree-ring width chronologies of European Russia

18. Paleoclimatic information in long chronologies Chronology «Vologda» MannandJones, 2003,R = 0.59 D’Arrigoetal., 2006,R=0.35 z-scores Years 18/24 Vladimir MatskovskyClimatic signal in tree-ring width chronologies of European Russia

19. Paleoclimatic information in long chronologies z-scores «Solovki» chronologyKononov et al., 2009,R = 0.61 Years 19/24 Vladimir MatskovskyClimatic signal in tree-ring width chronologies of European Russia

20. Paleoclimatic information in long chronologies «Solovki» chronology Solar activity (DelaygueandBard, 2010),R = 0.63 z-scores Years 20/24 Vladimir MatskovskyClimatic signal in tree-ring width chronologies of European Russia

21. Paleoclimatic information in long chronologies Positive «pointer years» Negative «pointer years» All the «pointer years» Frequency Century 21/24 Vladimir MatskovskyClimatic signal in tree-ring width chronologies of European Russia

22. Summary Why? (objectives) To understand what climate information can be extracted from long tree-ring width chronologies in European Russia How? (materials and methods) We used analysis of spatial correlations, pointer years analysis and comparison with historical data and climate reconstructions What? (results) We showed that climatic response is changing along latitudinal gradient, trees are more temperature sensitive in the north and moisture sensitive in the south – these results allow interpretation of long chronologies; Pointer years analysis showed weather conditions that lead to anomalous tree growth; Ppointer years coincide with historical data, chronologies show correlation with climate reconstructions – it demonstrates good paleoclimatic potential of tree-ring width chronologies in this region Perspectives New long chronologies Other proxies: stable isotopes, maximum latewood density Building regional reconstructions and including them into large projects (like PAGES 2k Network) 22/24 Vladimir MatskovskyClimatic signal in tree-ring width chronologies of European Russia

23. Acknowledgements Colleagues from our Tree-ring laboratory for their contribution in this research PAGES for the possibility to give a talk on the 2nd YSM PAGES and Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research for financial support that made my participation in this meeting possible 23/24 Vladimir MatskovskyClimatic signal in tree-ring width chronologies of European Russia

24. Thanks for your attention!