Contracting out Modelling Projects to Consultants Setting a Framework for Success

1. Contracting out Modelling Projects to ConsultantsSetting a Framework for Success Dr S A Joynes, Golovin, NZ

2. Introduction • Making the intangible, tangible • Simplifying the complicated a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling

3. Modelling Education • There is no formal academic teaching • It is learned on the job • Training only by software vendors • Not recognised (yet) by IPENZ • Guidelines, handbooks and software manuals a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling

4. Modellers Expertise • Based on who they worked for • What software packages they have the opportunity to use • What training courses attended There is NO formal qualification or training programme a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling

5. Water Modelling Today • Majority of infrastructure developments require water modelling input • $Millions spent of water modelling • Graduates thrown straight into “sophisticated” modelling • Production driven NOT quality driven • Most consultancies have modellers • Most Council's have modellers a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling

6. Standards and Guidelines • The New Zealand Standard for Managing Flood Risk – A Process Standard (NZS 9401:2008) (Appendix 2). • Surface Water, Document E1, Building Industry Authority • Roughness characteristics of NZ rivers, NIWA, September 1998, ISBN 0-477-02608-7 • Guidelines for stormwater runoff modelling in the Auckland Region, Auckland Regional Council, 1999, TP108 • WaPUG Integrated Urban Drainage Modelling Guide • STOWA Good Modelling Practise Handbook • Water New Zealand Water Supply Modelling Guidelines • Water New Zealand Wastewater Modelling Guidelines a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling

7. Questionnaire – NZ Asset Managers a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling

8. Example • Two different hydrological methods TOPNET & HEC-HMS used for change in land-use • TOPNET produced flows that caused flood levels to rise by 30mm • HEC-HMS produced flows that caused flood levels to rise by 270mm • Which one do you believe? a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling

9. From a Senior Consultant in a Major Company “It’s predominantly hydraulic modelling projects that go over budget ” a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling

10. Is this a typical experience? • 1. Inability of consultants to assist clients with a clear definition of the scope of works, and to provide reasonable cost and time estimates for a staged approach to deliver appropriate information for decision-making. Very often, inclusions, exclusions, assumptions and limitations are not stated nor the scale of consequences quantified. Costs and timely delivery keep spiralling up, due to lack of clarity and forethought. • 2. Inability of consultants to quickly assess the limitations with available data so that clients are provided with the scale of uncertainties with expected model outputs. • 3. Lack of confidence by consultants in using the modelling outcomes for decision-making. Model verification and calibration needs needs to be viewed relevant to the scale of outputs required. Auckland Region Asset Manager a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling

11. Shortfalls • No Structure • Inconsistent use of guidelines • Reliance on blackbox • No industry-wide training • Lack of information and clarity in reports • Budget control, spiralling costs • Modellers inability to assist with solutions a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling

12. New Paradigm • Firstly, what is the objective of any process that needs to address these issues? • “A process that enables the modeller to respond to the needs of the client in a specific tangible manner that can then be measurable, transparent and transferable for future use.” a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling

13. Characteristics • Universal • Comprehensive and comprehensible • Teachable from management to technical level • All modellers (experienced and inexperienced) will be at the same communication level • An over-arching umbrella for territorial laws, codes and specifications and industry specifications • Creates accountability for quality • Ensures client gets what client wants • Strong communication tool a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling

14. Structure a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling

15. Creation of Modelling Policy Statement A document that is • Specification • Project Management Tool • Quality Standard Document • A future planning tool a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling

16. Organise • The Thinking & Research Stage • The Client’s Job a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling

17. Organise - elements • Target audience • Standards • Time horizon • Experience requirement • Expectations and “what success will look like” • Ownership and governance a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling

18. Formalise • The point of greatest planning – and therefore benefit • The Design Stage • Client 80%, Modeller 20% a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling

19. Formalise • Survey requirements and needs • Catchment elements (area, slope, soils, land-use) • Rainfall inputs • Calibration data quality (flow gauges, water level gauges, rainfall gauges) a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling

20. Implement • The Doing Stage • “Line in the Sand Reports” Processes • Client 10% , Modeller 90% a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling

21. Implement - elements • Methodology statement • Assumptions used • Report of data used • Calibration feedback • Decision-making process a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling

22. Monitor • The Review, Future Planning and Closing Stage • Client (and advisor) 80%, Modeller 20% a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling

23. Monitor - elements • Peer Review Process • What improvement programmes need to be considered? • Do you need more or less modelling expertise? • Resource requirements • Where is the model to be housed? • How is the model to be updated? a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling

24. Summary • Hydraulic modelling has moved rapidly in the past 25 years. However this does not mean the quality of the work has kept up with technological progress. • Clients experience a myriad of issues when procuring modelling work, often leading to cost over-runs, time delays, repetition and lost information. • A survey of asset managers highlighted that there is no standard methodology for checking modelling results and that 50% of consent reports require additional information due to the poor clarity of modelling results. • There are a number of guidelines for modelling but they can be too specific to the discipline or they do not clearly state the parameters. a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling

25. Conclusion • A Modelling Policy Statement Structure as been developed • It is a “live” document that responds to the needs of the project • Allows the client to clearly communicate what they want • Supports consultants to respond positively to client needs • Creates strong communication and collaboration • Provides for an easier peer review process (probably reduces its need) • Ensures modellers are committed to project outcomes – no excuses a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling

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