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U.S. & Florida Economic Update Boca Raton, FL September 23 rd , 2014

U.S. & Florida Economic Update Boca Raton, FL September 23 rd , 2014. U.S. Forecast. Economic Policy Uncertainty Still Weighs on the Economy Health Care Reform Impact on labor market Delayed mandates Dodd-Frank Financial Regulatory Reform Impact on credit flows & financial sector

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U.S. & Florida Economic Update Boca Raton, FL September 23 rd , 2014

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  1. U.S. & Florida Economic Update Boca Raton, FL September 23rd, 2014

  2. U.S. Forecast Economic Policy Uncertainty Still Weighs on the Economy Health Care Reform Impact on labor market Delayed mandates Dodd-Frank Financial Regulatory Reform Impact on credit flows & financial sector 45.4% (127) Fiscal Policy Monetary Policy

  3. U.S. Forecast The economic impact of economic policy uncertainty Statistical analysis shows that higher policy uncertainty causes: Lower private investment Lower industrial production Much lower employment

  4. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index

  5. U.S. Forecast

  6. U.S. Forecast

  7. U.S. Forecast • Jobs Shortfall

  8. U.S. Forecast Unemployment if “missing workers” were found

  9. U.S. Forecast

  10. U.S. Forecast Sky Mall™ Policy: An Expensive Policy that Fails to Achieve its Desired Outcome

  11. U.S. Forecast

  12. U.S. Forecast

  13. U.S. Forecast Sky Mall™ Policies: T.A.R.P. Foreclosure Prevention Act 2009 ARRA of 2009 Affordable Care Act Dodd-Frank

  14. U.S. Forecast Lost housing wealth Weak labor market recovery Both have weighed on consumers “Mini age of austerity”

  15. U.S. Household Wealth (Trillions of $)

  16. U.S. Economic Outlook

  17. FloridaHousing Market Housing market recovery continues Double-digit price appreciation has slowed Still high level of investor activity Housing finance still an issue

  18. FloridaHousing Market

  19. FloridaHousing Market

  20. Florida Housing Market

  21. Florida Housing Market Investors are still active in Florida residential real estate Evidenced by high share of cash transactions Private equity, hedge funds international buyers

  22. Housing MarketCash Sales • Why are investors so active in Florida residential real estate?

  23. Housing MarketCash Sales

  24. Housing Market Housing Finance Still high proportion of cash sales Mortgage availability has been restricted by Dodd Frank Capital Standards Underwriting Standards Limited Private Securitization Demise of Mortgage Brokering Shell shock

  25. Florida Forecast

  26. Florida Forecast

  27. Florida Forecast

  28. Florida Forecast

  29. Florida Forecast

  30. Florida Forecast

  31. Florida Forecast

  32. Florida Forecast

  33. Florida Forecast

  34. 2014-2017 Averages;Q2 2014 Forecast

  35. 2014-2017 Averages;Q2 2014 Forecast

  36. 2014-2017 Averages;Q2 2014 Forecast

  37. Thank you • Sean M. Snaith, Ph.D. • Director • Institute for Economic Competitiveness • (407) 823-1453 • Sean@SeanSnaith.com • WWW.IEC.UCF.EDU • www.facebook.com/seansnaith • Twitter: @seansnaith

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