Transforming Scotland with Solar Energy “ A Solar Vision for Scotland ”

1. Transforming Scotland with Solar Energy“A Solar Vision for Scotland” Neil Robertson University of Edinburgh and SISER Director Scottish Universities Insight Institute

2. The Vision Document Builds on the October 2013 workshop at SUII, feedback on drafts, other information gathering and some data analysis. • The scale of solar in Scotland • The benefits (environmental, economic and social) • The barriers • The cooperation and actions needed Download from www.siser.ac.uk

3. Presenting the Vision 10.45 – 11.15 Solar Energy Vision for Scotland Neil Robertson, School of Chemistry at The University of Edinburgh and Director of SISER 11.15 – 11.35 The Business Picture – Scotland in the UK, EU and Global Context Finlay Colville, Solarbuzz 11.35 – 11.55 Solar opportunities and socio-economic impact in cities and rural communities - e.g. fuel poverty, public and community- owned asserts etc. Colin Porteous, Mackintosh School of Architecture, The Glasgow School of Art 11.55 – 12.15 Questions and Discussion Chair: Iain Weir, Optimat 12.15 – 13.30 Lunch and networking

4. 2020 Routemap for Renewable Energy in Scotland: Oct 2012 – no strategy for solar !! Dec 2013 – Solar sectoral routemap update Solar Likely To Become Dominant Source Of Electricity Globally By 2050, IEA Forecasts Solar energy is coming to Scotland in a large way whether we realise it or not. Can we properly plan for this to maximise the benefits to meet renewables targets, provide business opportunities within Scotland, to generate IP in new technologies, to address fuel poverty, community sustainability and security of supply. We believe that these can be achieved through concerted action by government, industry and academia.

5. Trends in PV Module Costs

6. SUII Project – original objectives • We will bring together stakeholders from business, the science community, local and national government, Scottish Enterprise, international experts and experts from complementary renewables. • A workshop in October will probe ways solar energy can transform Scotland. • A period of data analysis on the resource will add solid numbers to the debate. • A 2nd workshop in May will deliver a Vision report to maximise the impact of solar in business opportunities, social change, renewables targets and intellectual property within Scotland.

7. Solar energy can deliver a substantial contribution to Scottish renewable energy generation and will be a key contributor in delivering “nearly zero” energy buildings and addressing fuel poverty.

8. Scotland’s irradiation levels are about 80% those of Northern Germany or southern UK, although higher where most people live. Source: Burnett (2011) based on UK Met Office

9. Comparison for domestic PV across the UK, benchmarking predicted annual yield for a typical domestic installation in 18 UK locations (SISER). Each house is over 80% electricity neutral It is estimated that an average sized solar thermal roof mounted array in Scotland can provide 40-50% of the annual hot water requirements for a family home, and up to 100% of summer requirements.

10. Conservative estimate – installed capacity of around 7 GW of domestic and non-domestic rooftop solar PV is technically feasible in Scotland. Generating around 5.6 TWh per year, this would cover approximately one-sixth of Scotland’s electricity demand (SISER). The Committee on Climate Change

11. Other examples and drivers… • Estimated around 900 000 households in Scotland in fuel poverty: evidence that fuel poverty in Dundee can be totally eliminated using solar energy technologies • National and EU policy on sustainable buildings • FiT, ROC, RHI driving growth • UK target suggests Scottish PV should grow from 116 to 860 MW by 2020 (1500-2000 installation jobs), or with per capita catch up to around 1.7 GW

12. A review of 122 social housing tenants, over 100 of which were in Scotland, which highlighted that solar PV “can make a valuable contribution to reducing social housing tenants’ fuel bills and alleviating fuel poverty” • Fully integrated solar PV installation at Fife Housing Innovation Showcase: 2016 zero carbon Scottish Building standard could be achieved using PV roof tiles • Sporsnis Community project on Isle of Lewis where the output over a four year period demonstrated its efficacy.

13. Actions • Developing a common vision • Encouraging short term adoption • Integrating solar in the wider Scottish renewables strategy • Developing sustainable buildings • Monitoring progress and assessing impact • Developing a longer term road-map Responsibility – government, academia, industry

14. Developing a Common Vision • Recognise the huge growth anticipated over the period to 2020 under the current incentive regimes (FiT, RHI and ROCs). • Plan to maximise Scottish benefits (including jobs, zero-carbon buildings, social returns in cities and rural communities, novel products and niche IP). • Define and confirm an action plan to achieve these • Identify Scotland’s “solar champion” • Establish a leadership group

16. A Solar Vision for Scotland Scottish Universities Insight Institute “We will bring together stakeholders from business, the science community, local and national government, Scottish Enterprise, international experts and experts from complementary renewables.” • The scale of solar in Scotland • The benefits (environmental, economic and social) • The barriers • The cooperation and actions needed Download from www.siser.ac.uk

17. Solar energy can deliver a substantial contribution to Scottish renewable energy generation and will be a key contributor in delivering “nearly zero” energy buildings and addressing fuel poverty.

18. Conservative estimate – installed capacity of around 7 GW of domestic and non-domestic rooftop solar PV is technically feasible in Scotland. Generating around 5.6 TWh per year, this would cover approximately one-sixth of Scotland’s electricity demand (SISER). The Committee on Climate Change

19. Developing a Common Vision • Recognise the huge growth anticipated over the period to 2020 under the current incentive regimes (FiT, RHI and ROCs). • Plan to maximise Scottish benefits (including jobs, zero-carbon buildings, social returns in cities and rural communities, novel products and niche IP). • Define and confirm an action plan to achieve these • Identify Scotland’s “solar champion” • Establish a leadership group Responsibility – government, academia, industry