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Prospects for Food & Water Availability and Quality A view based on Climate Change

Prospects for Food & Water Availability and Quality A view based on Climate Change. Bruce A. McCarl Distinguished Professor of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University mccarl@tamu.edu, http//ageco.tamu.edu/faculty/mccarl. Climate Change is Happening. Let's Avoid Climate Change.

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Prospects for Food & Water Availability and Quality A view based on Climate Change

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  1. Prospects for Food & Water Availability and Quality A view based on Climate Change Bruce A. McCarl Distinguished Professor of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University mccarl@tamu.edu, http//ageco.tamu.edu/faculty/mccarl Climate Change is Happening Let's Avoid Climate Change Effects/Adaptation Mitigation Presented at a meeting on Megaregions + MetroProsperity: Sustainable Economics for the Texas Triangle During panel on Food & water: Are we secure? Houston, September 24, 2009

  2. Coverage Do we have a food issue now? What will climate change do to food? What will climate change due to water? Fresh Sea level What are challenges of climate change mitigation and adaptation

  3. Do we have a food issue now? The Texas Megaregion is Food Deficit and has no prospects of being any other way. We import. As a state we are food surplus likely only in cotton ( 30%) beef (16%) wheat (5-7%) Broilers (6%) None of these are big enough in triangle area

  4. 1997-2008 Some say recent data shows this is over Easterling, D. R., and M. F. Wehner (2009),Is the climate warming or cooling?, Geophys. Res. Lett., in press. (accepted 30 March 2009)

  5. 1997-2008 1987-1996 Global Average Climate Change Easterling, D. R., and M. F. Wehner (2009),Is the climate warming or cooling?, Geophys. Res. Lett., in press. (accepted 30 March 2009) Ups and downs in global atmospheric temperatures over a decade are not easy to interpret 1977-1989

  6. Degree of climate change Precipitation Precipitation is increasing but not here Amount from wet days is increasing Subtropics forecast to be drier

  7. Degree of climate change - What is projected • Less water Texas in relatively severely affected area

  8. Live with it - Agriculture Nationally more crops – Texas 25% less acres Cold limited acres CO2 effect Source McCarl work for US National Assessment Table 2 National crop sensitivity over all crops giving average yield change in percent to 2030 -- GCM behind Climate Scenario -- Hadley Canadian CSIRO REGCM Corn Belt 24.02 18.23 6.05 6.58 Great Plains 25.29 17.28 3.67 4.82Lake States 43.75 53.03 9.34 11.84 Northeast 9.48-2.072.13 4.45Rocky Mountains 27.74 19.37 18.27 15.04 Pacific Southwest 17.76 21.44 15.58 15.05 Pacific Northwest 65.42 17.01 17.22 18.30 South Central 13.25-6.06 -0.71 -0.79Southeast 10.00 -3.16 3.84 2.40South West 21.66 14.69 3.38 2.60National 25.14 16.51 6.02 6.46Red signifies results below mean http://agecon2.tamu.edu/people/faculty/mccarl-bruce/papers/778.pdf

  9. Sea Level – Coastal IPCC 0.18-0.6 meters (no ice melt) Greenland 7 meters Antarctica 55 meters Scenarios 1-5 meters Houston 13 meters http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/ResourceCenterPublicationsSLRMapsIndex.html http://www.glo.state.tx.us/coastal/erosion/reimbursement/pdf/Surfside_Beach_historic_shorelines.pdf

  10. Mitigation of climate change Why is this happening • Pre industrial - 275 Counting Non CO2 • - 345 this is increase almost doubles • 2007 - 380+ http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mlo.html

  11. Climate change mitigation – Texas and GHGs 2003 State by State Energy related CO2 emissions -- Texas wins Emissions growing Most emissions from energy US EPA, http://www.eia.doe.gov/environment.html US EIA, http://www.eia.doe.gov/environment.html

  12. Why Adapt - Inevitability 800 700 600 500 [1] The best estimate of climate sensitivity is 3ºC [WG 1 SPM]. [2] Note that global mean temperature at equilibrium is different from expected global mean temperature at the time of stabilization of GHG concentrations due to the inertia of the climate system. For the majority of scenarios assessed, stabilisation of GHG concentrations occurs between 2100 and 2150. [3] Ranges correspond to the 15th to 85th percentile of the post-TAR scenario distribution. CO2 emissions are shown so multi-gas scenarios can be compared with CO2-only scenarios.

  13. Basic Resources Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report - Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptationand Vulnerability, http://www.ipcc.ch/. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report - Climate Change 2007: Mitigation , http://www.ipcc.ch/. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report - The Scientific Basis, http://www.ipcc.ch/. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report – Synthesis Report, http://www.ipcc.ch/. National Assessment Synthesis Team, US Global Change Research Program , Climate Change Impacts on the United States:The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change Overview: 2000http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/overview.htm National Assessment Synthesis Team, US Global Change Research Program , Climate Change Impacts on the United States:The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change Foundation: 2000 http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/foundation.htm http://agecon.tamu.edu/faculty/mccarl/papers.htm

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