An overview of the Lincolnshire economy – Past, present and future

1. An overview of the Lincolnshire economy– Past, present and future Katy Thomas Team Leader Economic Research Team, LCC

2. National Indicators • - Levels of unemployment • - Job creation • - Value of Outputs • - Inflation • - Interest / Exchange rates • Balance of Payments • Business start ups / deaths • Repossession rates • House prices • Disposable income • Local Indicators • - Levels of unemployment • - Job creation • - Value of Outputs • Business start ups / deaths • Repossession rates • House prices • Disposable income • Economic Performance Influencers • Skills/Qualification levels • Availability of land • Dependency rate Measuring Economic Performance

3. Value of Outputs • Gross Domestic Product (GDP) • Value of goods and services (for final consumption) produced by the economy • Gross Value Added (GVA) • Value of outputs less the costs of inputs to the production process

4. What is our economy worth? Source: Office for National Statistics

5. £6,045 £3,541 GVA per head Source: Office for National Statistics

6. GVA per head Source: Office for National Statistics

7. Top 5 Areas (GVA per head) UK Baseline = £20,341 per head 1. Inner London £60,842 2. North Eastern Scotland £28,731 3. Berkshire, Buckinghamshire and £26,259 Oxfordshire 4. Bedfordshire and Hertfordshire£21,194 5. Gloucestershire, Wiltshire and £21,099 Bristol/Bath Area

8. Bottom 5 Areas (GVA per head) UK Baseline = £20,341 per head 5. Merseyside £14,545 4. Lincolnshire £14,296 3. Tees Valley and Durham £14,171 2. Cornwall and Isles of Scilly£13,129 1. West Wales and The Valleys £12,561

9. Regional Output at NUTS2, European Union Source:eurostat

10. Why is our GVA per head lower? • Levels of population growth and change

11. Population Change / Growth Source: Office for National Statistics 2001 2010 2020 2030

12. Why is our GVA per head lower? • Levels of population growth and change • Comparing areas based on resident population (per head) is not accurate

13. GVA per hours worked Source: Office for National Statistics

14. Why is our GVA per head lower? • Levels of population growth and change • Comparing areas based on resident population (per head) is not “accurate” • Our traditional industries

15. Traditional Industries 70,000 Highly represented and Under-represented and of higher value of higher value Construction (B) 60,000 (A) Energy & water Banking, finance 50,000 & insurance Manufacturing Transport & Other services 40,000 communications Public admin, GVA value per worker (£) education & health 30,000 Agriculture & fishing Distribution, hotels & restaurants 20,000 Under-represented but Highly represented but 10,000 of lower value of lower value (D) (C) 0 8.7 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Employment Ratio (Lincolnshire:England) Sources: Employee numbers from Annual Business Inquiry (ONS) and DeFRA Agricultural Census; GVA from ONS.

16. Some issues with measuring GVA • Calculated using a 5 year moving average technique which means identifying recent change would be difficult. • Uses a top down method • It does not include pension income or social security benefits which supplement incomes.

17. Gross Disposable Household Income Source: Office for National Statistics

18. GDHI Index Source: Office for National Statistics

19. £37,469 £39,677 House Prices Source: Land Registry 2008 2009 2010 2011

20. Repossessions Source: Ministry of Justice

21. Personal Insolvencies Source: Insolvency Service

22. How have we fared recently?

23. Looking Ahead Actual data Forecast

24. Further Wealth Generation Not everything that counts can be counted (easily!) for example: • third sector wealth generation • volunteering that supports Third Sector activities in Lincolnshire is estimated to be in the range £24–37 million

25. Summary • A lagging economy when based on GVA per head, but positive signs in the last 4/5 years • Other measures put the Lincolnshire economy on a more positive footing • Longer term forecast is one of growth