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Permafrost observations at the circumpolar scale

Permafrost observations at the circumpolar scale. Oleg Anisimov, State Hydrological Institute, Russia Oleg@oa7661.spb.edu. Modern permafrost observations. http://nsidc.org/fgdc. www.gtnp.org. www.udel.edu/Geography/calm. ALT inferred from ground temperature interpolation. Bolvansky

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Permafrost observations at the circumpolar scale

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  1. Permafrost observations at the circumpolar scale Oleg Anisimov, State Hydrological Institute, Russia Oleg@oa7661.spb.edu

  2. Modern permafrost observations http://nsidc.org/fgdc www.gtnp.org www.udel.edu/Geography/calm

  3. ALT inferred from ground temperature interpolation

  4. Bolvansky Organic layer thickness and elevation (m) Bolvansky 30 sm Ayach-Yakha 50 Talnik Parisento 70 Nadym 90 110 130 talik Thaw depth and elevation (m)

  5. Seasonal thaw depth, m 0 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.0 >2 Seasonal thaw depth at decadal time scale Modern climate (1991-2000 climatology) Min = (Zm-1.96 σz) Max = (Zm+1.96 σz) Mean, Zm Projection for 2050 (based on 5 GCMs)

  6. Probabilistic permafrost mapping at decadal time scale Probability scale 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Modern climate Ensemble projection for 2050 Seasonal thaw range <0.8 m 0.8-1.5 m 1.5-1.8 m >1.8 m

  7. Permafrost web sites • Survey of results from research projects and permafrost data baseshttp://nsidc.org/fgdc • CALM project and data www.udel.edu/Geography/calm • Sub-aquatic permafrostwww. awi-potsdam.de/acd/

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