Commentary on Linkages

1. Commentary on Linkages Dr. Quentin Chiotti Climate Change Programme Director and Senior Scientist Pollution Probe Website: www.pollutionprobe.org Email: qchiotti@pollutionprobe.org

2. Meeting the Climate Change Challenge • UNFCCC Article 2 • Ultimate objective to avoid dangerous interference with the earth’s climate • To avoid 2ºC must reduce GLOBAL emissions by 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050 • Lieberman-Warner Bill and Canada’s Federal Regulatory Framework on Air Emissions • Both fall short of the 80 percent target • More or less commits the globe to a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere

3. Pathways beyond 2020 to 2050 unclear, not explained in any meaningful detail • NRTEE questions whether 2020 targets achievable • Global emissions must peak by 2015 • Hence will know within the next decade whether we will overshoot a 2x CO2 concentration level, and reach a 3x or 4x • Note that most of the IPCC Assessment Reports are based on a 2x CO2 level

4. Differences between Canada and everyone else • Not clear if intensity targets plus an overall cap is that different from traditional cap and trade systems • Note that only about 50 percent of emissions are typically covered in cap and trade systems • Clear message from the EU and possibly the US that intensity targets does not establish a level playing field • Canada and Alberta need to better explain why these systems can be linked

5. Will Canada and AB need to establish a cap and trade system? • Not clear how oil sands emissions will decline with intensity targets and overall national emissions reduction target • Canada and AB seem to be counting on carbon capture and storage • California low carbon fuel standard may also pose a barrier to oil sands exports • Agree with John Drexhage that oil sands exports need to be understood in relation to U.S. transportation fuel needs • Is there a double standard for Canada given that harmonization is encouraged for CAC emissions trading; should not the same apply to GHGs?

6. Possible Outcomes • Provincial engagement in RGGI and WCI seems to be growing • Equivalency agreements likely to become more important and necessary • Potential for AB and Canada to become marginalized • Worst case scenario has a balkanized ET system in Canada, not linked with the US or even International trade • Remember Acid Rain experience: provincial action forced the Federal Government to take action

7. Linkages to other Air Issues • Important to link measures to reduce GHGs with measures to reduce CACs • Spatial disconnect since GHGs contribute to a global problem whereas CACs contribute to a regional air shed problem • Important to consider implications of source contributions to local air quality • Growing research targeting transportation sources and significant health effects • Great potential for transportation off-sets if standard methods can be established, ownership of emission reduction credits is clear, and protocols developed • Goods and freight movement also an issue; protocols under consideration in Canada

8. Linkage to Adaptation • Since a certain amount of climate change is inevitable, important to consider linkages between mitigation and adaptation • Note that under the UNFCCC, Kyoto and the IPCC, both Mitigation AND Adaptation measures must be adopted • EU example where some percentage of revenue from auctions is devoted to adaptation measures