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Variability ENSO: Mdl < Obs NEUT: Mdl > Obs

Potential Predictability. ENSO. NEUT. El Nino. Mdl. La Nina. Obs. Variability ENSO: Mdl < Obs NEUT: Mdl > Obs. Neut. Regime dependent bias corrected. Conventional bias corrected. Raw forecast skill. Climate Variability and Potential Predictability in CFS. Wilbur Y. Chen

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Variability ENSO: Mdl < Obs NEUT: Mdl > Obs

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  1. Potential Predictability ENSO NEUT El Nino Mdl La Nina Obs Variability ENSO: Mdl < Obs NEUT: Mdl > Obs Neut

  2. Regime dependent bias corrected Conventional bias corrected Raw forecast skill

  3. Climate Variability and Potential Predictabilityin CFS Wilbur Y. Chen Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA

  4. MDL Total Variance Clim OBS Diff

  5. More brown than blue

  6. DML ENSO DJFs NEUT DJFs OBS have have DIFF More Negative More Positive

  7. ENSO DJFs NEUT DJFs MDL OBS Ratio Less > 1. More >> 1.

  8. MDL VAR of ENS Means Versus ENS Spreads A B A B

  9. Mdl Behavior: clim noise is smaller when there is ENSO forcing Neutral larger ENS Spreads ENS Means ENSO smaller Diff

  10. Ens mean Ens spread Neut ENSO More < 1. More > 1. Ratio Mdl VAR Ratio = Neutral / ENSO

  11. Warm DJFs larger smaller Clim Signal Clim Noise Cold DJFs larger smaller DIFF More Negat More Posit

  12. Potential Predictability Total El Nino DJFs ENSO La Nina DJFs VAR of Clim Signal ------------------------------------ Total VAR (Signal+Noise) Neut

  13. El Nino DJFs La Nina DJFs

  14. Potential Predictability for ENSO DJFs for Neutral DJFs

  15. Potential Pred: Warm vs Cold

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