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Simulation modelling Case study: Victoria WAS Scenarios Discussion Questions throughout please!

Simulation modelling Case study: Victoria WAS Scenarios Discussion Questions throughout please!. Providing quantitative decision support tools and services to address complex organizational and societal issues. What is Simulation Modelling and why use it?. Try something out ahead of time….

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Simulation modelling Case study: Victoria WAS Scenarios Discussion Questions throughout please!

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  1. Simulation modelling • Case study: Victoria WAS • Scenarios • Discussion • Questions throughout please! Providing quantitative decision support tools and services to address complex organizational and societal issues.

  2. What is Simulation Modelling and why use it? Try something out ahead of time… • To learn the impact of various actions • To play out different scenarios • To gain understanding and insight …make better plans and decisions. www.whatiftechnologies.com

  3. whatIf? Physical Economy Modelling Approach • Whole system modelling • Process as fundamental concept • Physical substrate • Behaviour/Control • Stocks and Flows • Coherence (user imputed causality) www.whatiftechnologies.com

  4. Model Builder modelling suite www.whatiftechnologies.com

  5. Model Building Overview design • Interactive process for designing and building models • Build a customized model specific to analytical needs • Technology transfer may occur throughout model coding calibration and data assembly scenario building www.whatiftechnologies.com

  6. whatIf? Benefits • Transparency • Corporate Memory • Scenario Management www.whatiftechnologies.com

  7. We have linked physical whole-economy models • Australian Stocks and Flows Framework (ASFF) • all economy • energy end-use (residential, industrial…) • materials flows • Victorian Regional Stocks and Flows Framework (VRSFF) • demography • land-use (~12 types, built and non-built by ~2,600 areas) • electricity generation • Water Accounting System (WAS) • water requirements • water provision • energy for water system www.whatiftechnologies.com

  8. Drivers and Interactions • Demographics • Land-use • Electricity production • Water resources and use • a complete water account www.whatiftechnologies.com

  9. Water Account System compares ‘demand’ & ‘supply’ • ‘Flow’ of physical implications • integrates use and availability • inputs taken from ASFF and VRSFF www.whatiftechnologies.com

  10. Geographic Context • Victoria is in southern Australia • Melbourne is the capital city of ~4 million people • 3 key dams (each >106 Gl) • Dartmouth (NE) • Eildon (N) • Thomson (SE) • supplies most of Melbourne • Murray-Darling Basin and Victoria overlap www.whatiftechnologies.com

  11. Victorian historical data sources Water DWRV Water Resource Handbook BRS 1985 Review ABS Water Accounts (1994-97, 2001, 2005) DSE State Water Report 2003 SoE 1988 MDBC reports – flows, dam levels BoM rainfall; Melbourne Water; NLWRA catchment flows Energy intensity of water services; Energy used Demography Census 1966-2001; education statistics; health statistics Land-use Zoning Plan historical maps of Melbourne Census (2001) Energy ESAA generation/production capacity ~ 1995-2004 ABS Energy Accounts 1982-1991 specific energy consumption data 1974-1995 Yallourn & Loy Yang data & Electricity Commission data ~1920-2004 www.whatiftechnologies.com

  12. Water Account System - Description “Design Approach” [Gault et al, Futures, 1987] “supply v demand” structure traceable physical relationships (coordination) www.whatiftechnologies.com

  13. Water Account System - Requirements • water requirements • by ~14 sectors • in 79 Local Government Areas www.whatiftechnologies.com

  14. Water Account System - Availability • water availability • in 29 major river basins • across 14 land use types • into surface, aquifers, evapo-transpiration www.whatiftechnologies.com

  15. Water Account System - Disposition • water puts and takes • into/from rivers, dams, aquifers • centralised or self-extracted • desalination option • quality: unpolluted, storm-, grey-, black-water • treatment to primary, secondary, tertiary levels • transfers between the 29 river basins www.whatiftechnologies.com

  16. Water Account System – Dam/River Balance • water storage stock and river flows • all additions and extractions brought together • diversions from river to dam • release of storage down river • river network included www.whatiftechnologies.com

  17. Water Account System – Energy Required • energy for water services • potable treatment & pumping • treatment & pumping for recycling (sewage, other discharges, stormwater) • local re-use • desalination • inter-region transfers www.whatiftechnologies.com

  18. Key common assumptions population growth 4.9 million by 2050 Victoria in Future climate change “medium” scenario = 1.5 C change (rel to 1990) by 2050 CSIRO intensity of water use marginal increase response to climate change irrigated agriculture, and residential outdoor DSE electricity consumption / generation growth at 2% pa per capita unchanged technology www.whatiftechnologies.com

  19. Other key scenario assumptions water end-use no change (2a, 2b) solar HWS, efficient shower, wash machine (1a, 1b, 2c, 2d) in 80% new dwellings, 20% existing dwellings water services conventional catchment (1a, 2a, 2c) desalination (to meet new demand) (2b, 2d) alternative (1b) rainwater tanks in 20% dwellings 1 kL re-use of industrial wastewater 20% of flow re-use of wastewater at central treatment 20% of flow www.whatiftechnologies.com

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