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The Use of Modeling to Assess Risk in the Air Toxics Program

The Use of Modeling to Assess Risk in the Air Toxics Program. Kenneth L. Mitchell, Ph.D., Chief Air Toxics Assessment & Implementation Section U.S. EPA Atlanta, GA. THE CURRENT AIR TOXICS PROGRAM (Stationary, Mobile, and Indoor Air Sources). Regulatory Approaches. Risk Assessment

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The Use of Modeling to Assess Risk in the Air Toxics Program

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  1. The Use of Modeling to Assess Risk in the Air Toxics Program Kenneth L. Mitchell, Ph.D., Chief Air Toxics Assessment & Implementation Section U.S. EPA Atlanta, GA

  2. THE CURRENT AIR TOXICS PROGRAM (Stationary, Mobile, and Indoor Air Sources) Regulatory Approaches Risk Assessment Methods for Facility Specific & Community-Scale Risk Decision Criteria for Facilities and Communities Voluntary Reduction Options Education and Outreach S/L/T Program Structure Design Achieve Meaningful Reductions At The Local Level

  3. Six“Criteria” Pollutants O3, NO2, SO2, Pb CO, PM Mobile Source Air Toxics 21 Chemicals & Mixtures The U.S. Clean Air Act Hazardous Air Pollutants (Air Toxics) 188 Chemicals & Compounds What are the common air pollutants of concern?

  4. Regulatory Approaches Risk Assessment Methods for Facility Specific & Community-Scale Risk Decision Criteria for Facilities and Communities Voluntary Reduction Options Education and Outreach S/L/T Program Structure Design • OAR has developed two classes to introduce stakeholders to the basics of risk assessment, management, and communication • Introductory Web-based course* • Three-day classroom style course • *(http://www.epa.gov/air/oaqps/eog/course/index.html)

  5. The Air Toxics Risk Assessment Library The Air Toxics Risk Assessment Library

  6. Regulatory Approaches Risk Assessment Methods for Facility Specific & Community-Scale Risk Decision Criteria for Facilities and Communities Voluntary Reduction Options Education and Outreach S/L/T Program Structure Design • OAR is developing methods for conducting facility-specific and community-scale assessments • Air Toxics Risk Assessment Reference Library • Volume 1: Technical Resource Manual (Complete) • Volume 2: Facility-specific Assessment (Complete) • Volume 3: Community-Level Assessment (Completed by Fall 2005) http://www.epa.gov/ttn/fera/risk_atra_main.html

  7. What’s in Volume 1….? Volume I is the Technical Resource Manual – It covers all the basics! • Part I • Background • Part II • Human Health Risk Assessment (Inhalation) • Part III • Human Health Risk Assessment (Multipathway)

  8. What’s in Volume 1….? Volume I is the Technical Resource Manual – It covers all the basics! • Part IV • Ecological Risk Assessment • Part V • Risk-based Decision Making • Part VI • Special Topics • Glossary and Appendices

  9. WIND DIRECTION A B BIOACCUMULATION IN FOOD TRANSFORMATION WET DEPOSITION DISPERSION DRY DEPOSITION EVAPORATION/REENTRAINMENT IN AIR CANCER TARGET ORGAN/TISSUE INGESTION DERMAL INHALATION NON-CANCER ENDPOINTS EXCRETION INTAKE/UPTAKE

  10. Volume 1 and Modeling • Volume I covers the basics of fate/transport modeling • Air quality model structure • Types of air quality models • Deposition and multimedia modeling • Screening vs refined models • Data required for modeling • Sources of air quality models and information • Examples of air quality models • Emissions from soil AND….

  11. Volume 1 and Modeling • Volume I covers the basics of exposure modeling • Human Exposure Model (HEM) • Hazardous Air Pollutant Exposure Model (HAPEM) • Total Risk Integrated Methodology Exposure Event Model (TRIM.Expoinhalation), also known as Air Pollutants Exposure Model (APEX)

  12. What’s in Volume 2….? • Builds on Volume 1 by providing a set of recommended approaches for assessing individual facilities or sources • Based on tiering philosophy • Suggests specific modeling procedures for each tier • Recommends inputs where data are absent

  13. What will be in Volume 3…? • Describes to communities how they can evaluate and reduce risks at the local level, including: • Screening level and more detailed analytical approaches, including multi-source air toxics assessments • How to balance the need for assessment versus the need for action • How to identify and prioritize risk reduction options and measure success • How to develop resources • Focused information on stakeholder involvement and communicating information in a community-based setting • Assessing and mitigating non-air toxics risks

  14. Builds on Region 6 Regional Air Impact Modeling Initiative (RAIMI) Process Risk - Management and Analysis Platform (Risk–MAP) Project Database • Emissions Characterization Component • Integration of Primary Emission Databases (DataMiner) • Data Quality Review and Data Extraction (ACCESS) • Air Modeling Component • Preprocessing of Air Modeling Inputs (AMP) • Execute Air Dispersion Model (ISCST3) • Risk Modeling Component • Site Assessment and Data Input Processing (Risk-MAP) • Generate Risk Results and Perform Data Analysis (Risk-MAP) • Map and Report Generation (Risk-MAP) • Solutions Implementation and Performance Review RAIMI Info available at http://www.epa.gov/earth1r6/6pd/rcra_c/raimi/raimi.htm

  15. Cumulative Air Toxics Risk and Volume 3 • Characterizing Emissions • Emissions-specific data quality objectives • Building a database of emissions • Compiling/integrating data into a multisource database • Database quality assessment • Point source versus non-point source (e.g., aggregated) data • Mobile sources • Special considerations such as temporal resolution of emissions data • Uncertainties and limitations RAIMI Info available at http://www.epa.gov/earth1r6/6pd/rcra_c/raimi/raimi.htm

  16. Cumulative Air Toxics Risk and Volume 3 • Air Modeling • Air modeling-specific data quality objectives • Air dispersion model selection (screening vs more advanced models) • Dispersion modeling inputs • Special considerations • Geolocation • Emissions partitioning • Unit emission rate • Chemical transformation • Using a universal grid • Building downwash • Point source versus non-point source (e.g., aggregated) data • Mobile sources • Air modeling for bounding analysis • Uncertainties and limitations http://www.epa.gov/earth1r6/6pd/rcra_c/raimi/postertools.pdf

  17. Draft Timeline – Volume 3 • First draft of document is complete • Send revised draft for external review (e.g.,STAPPA/ALAPCO, etc.) – Spring 2005 • Send revised draft for external peer review – Summer 2005 • Finalize document – Fall 2005

  18. New Air Risk Website (FERA) • EPA’s Fate, Exposure, and Risk Analysis (FERA) Website • Risk Resources • General Agency information/policy/guidance • Air toxics risk assessment • Criteria pollutant risk assessment • Links to other risk related information/guidelines • Total Risk Integrated Methodology (TRIM) • Human Exposure Modeling • Multimedia Fate & Transport Modeling    http://www.epa.gov/ttn/fera

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