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The Earth System

The Earth System . …and an Earth System Model ( classical IPCC-type Earth System Model). Some key definitions / notions. Coupled Model : definition depends on whom you speak to…. most of the time: ocean-atmosphere general circulation model = climate model

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The Earth System

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  1. The Earth System

  2. …and an Earth System Model (classicalIPCC-typeEarth System Model)

  3. Somekeydefinitions / notions Coupled Model : definitiondepends on whomyouspeak to…. • most of the time: ocean-atmospheregeneral circulation model = climate model • for a marine biogeochemist: OGCM / oceanbiogeochemical model • … and so on… Model Components : models or sub-models of a coupled system > Atmospheric GCM, Oceanic GCM, AtmosphericChemical Model, Land Surface Model… Flexible Use : > Full system > Online / Offline coupling

  4. Step 1 : Because of the cost of the atmsophericchemistrymodels…. It isrunonly a few yearsevery 2/3 decades

  5. Step 2 : Thencarbon / climate model withaerosols / O3 prescribed transientrunfrompre-industrial times to projections

  6. Economy – Carbon – Climate – Impact Modeling (IPCC, 2007)

  7. Economy – Carbon – Climate – Impact Modeling (IPCC, 2013)

  8. Economy – Carbon – Climate – Impact Modeling CO2 Concentrations (ppm) RCP85 : IIASA/MESSAGE RCP6 : NIES/AIM RCP45 : PNNL/MiniCAM RCP3PD : PBL/IMAGE

  9. Carbon – ClimateModeling OceanicCarbon (PISCES) IPSL-CM5A-LR Historique RCP8.5 RCP6.0 RCP4.5 RCP2.6 Land Carbon (ORCHIDEE)

  10. Carbon – ClimateModeling : Compatible / Permissible Emissions Dufresne et al. in rev

  11. Carbon – ClimateModeling : Compatible / Permissible Emissions Dufresne et al. in rev

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