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A Snapshot of the Alaska Economy

A Snapshot of the Alaska Economy. AFN Leadership Forum Steve Colt UAA Institute of Social and Economic Research 6 July 2006. Acknowledgments. Funding: Alaska Council on Economic Education University of Alaska Foundation Previous work: Scott Goldsmith, ISER Helpful comments:

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A Snapshot of the Alaska Economy

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  1. A Snapshot of the Alaska Economy AFN Leadership Forum Steve Colt UAA Institute of Social and Economic Research 6 July 2006

  2. Acknowledgments Funding: Alaska Council on Economic Education University of Alaska Foundation Previous work: Scott Goldsmith, ISER Helpful comments: Cynthia Casas, Steve Jackstadt

  3. These slides available at: www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu

  4. Overview • Size: • How big is the Alaska economy? • Structure: • What drives the Alaska economy? • How is that changing? • Regional variation: • How is remote Alaska different? • Looking ahead: • Strengths and areas of concern

  5. How big is the Alaska economy?(year 2004) • population: 658,000 • total employment: 400,000 • includes military, proprietors • personal income: $22 billion • gross state product: $36 billion • value of production occurring within the state • includes wages and profits going to nonresidents ISER, AK DOLWD, U.S. BEA

  6. Alaska gross state product:$36 billion in 2004 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

  7. Alaska gross state product compared to other states U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

  8. Alaska gross state product: a closer look U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

  9. Alaska gross state product compared to other countries U.N. Human Development Report 2005

  10. Structure of the Alaska economy • subsistence • the five driving sectors • how we got here • looking ahead

  11. Subsistenceis a vital part of the Alaska economy Total subsistence harvests exceed 53 million pounds ISER, ADF&G

  12. Sources of jobs in the cash economy: personal assets 10% oil and gas 32% tourism, cargo 10% fishing, mining, timber 10% federal govt 35% about 400,000 total jobs in 2004

  13. Oil and gas:126,800 jobs (32%) ISER

  14. Federal spending:141,600 jobs (35%) ISER

  15. Seafood, mining, and timber: 50,400 jobs (13%) ISER

  16. Tourism and air cargo: 39,800 jobs (10%) ISER

  17. Personal assets (mailbox economy) 41,400 jobs (10%) ISER

  18. Growth of Alaska employment1965-2000 [photos] ISER

  19. Alaska economy looks more like the U.S. over time U.S. Census

  20. Regional variation:how is remote Alaska different? • jobs • income • demographics • infrastructure

  21. Unemployment Alaska DOLWD

  22. Average annual wage & salary earnings in private industry (2000) Alaska DOLWD

  23. Rural Alaska runs on expensive dieselbarrels oil per person per year

  24. Who will need jobs?Age distributions, year 2000 Anchorage remote rural AK U.S. census

  25. Internet availability to communities(not the same as actual connections) Regulatory Commission of AK 2005

  26. Looking ahead: strengths and areas of concern

  27. 2,500,000 NPRA 2,000,000 Other NS Northstar Colville R Badami 1,500,000 Duck Island GPMcIntyre Barrels per Day Milne Pt KRU.IPA+Sat PBU.IPA+Sat 1,000,000 Cook Inlet 500,000 0 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 Year Concern: Oil production is declining… Oil Production 1969 - 2022 Prudhoe Bay Kuparuk Alaska Department of Natural Resources

  28. We have been rescued – for now - by high oil prices State Oil Revenues Alaska Department of Revenue, author calculation

  29. Strength: Permanent fund earnings roughly equal oil revenues

  30. Strength:Small firms are a vital part of today’s economy…. • More than 40% of private sector jobs are with firms of less than 50 people • average size = 6 people • More than 50% of private sector jobs are with firms of less than 100 people • These data do not include proprietors: • most fishers, many professionals • Therefore, true size of the small-business sector is significantly larger Alaska DOLWD, author calculation

  31. Private sector employment by size of firm (year 2005) more than 500 Less than 50 employees 100-500 50-100 Alaska DOLWD

  32. Strength: Alaska leads the nation in household internet usage % of households with internet access (2003) • Alaska 68.5 • New Hampshire 65.5 • Colorado 63.4 • Connecticut 62.9 • Utah 62.6 U.S. Census

  33. Strength: Alaska has low inequalityGini coefficients for countries and regions(0 = complete equality100 = complete inequality) Alaska 38.0(based on household income) Alaska estimated by author from US Census American Community Survey 2004 – household income UN Human Development Report 2005 Chap 2 – per capita income

  34. concern:formal ownership of Alaska lands Total 375 million acres

  35. Strength and concern:Alaska age distribution includes many young people entering labor force U.S. (year 2000) Alaska (year 2000) U.S. Census

  36. We’re all in this together. www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu

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