Save the Children Denmark Board Seminar 1 & 2 February 2013 Jonas Keiding Lindholm

1. A 2025 social fiction: Megatrends & possibleimplications for Save the ChildrenLooking 10-15 yearsahead to start the planningnow Save the Children Denmark Board Seminar 1 & 2 February 2013 Jonas Keiding Lindholm

2. Considerations for Save the Childrenhighlighted in yellowboxes Megatrends • … for Save the Children to watch and acton in order to stay relevant for vulnerable children and youngpeople in the years to come • Demographics • Poverty and inequality • Climatechange and resourcescarcity • Technology • Multipolarity and global governance • New actors and new ventures • A new altruisticeconomy • Summary considerations A Social fiction, not Science Fiction. Does not incorporateperspectivesonbiogenetics, cyberterrorism, radikalism and geopoliticalsecurity nor trade and investment.

3. Inspiration And severalothers

4. DEMOGRAPHICS

5. Growing and ageing • 8 billion in 2025, 9 billion in 2050. Next billion in Asia and Africa • 3 generationalcategories of countries: • stabile ordecling population growth in HICs; 50% >40years • soonlevellinggrowth in MICs & USA; 50% >30 years • continuous rapid growth in LICs and CAFs; 50% >20years HIC = HighIncomeCountries MIC = MiddleIncomeCountries; LIC = LowIncomeCountries CAFS (ConflictAffected States)

6. Surviving and living longer Great progress made onreducing infant and <5 mortality, yet still work to be done, especially in Africa

7. But getting fatter and sicker • Broad shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal and nutritional causes of death in 1990 towards non-communicable diseases (account for 2/3 deaths) ie heart disease and diabetes. Large regional discrepancies though. Consideration: Obesity and foulnourishment, not onlyunder-nourishment, as a new global healthpriority?

8. Settling in urban areas • More people on earth now living in urban rather than rural areas • 60% will live in urban areas in 2030 (twice as many as on Earth in 1970) • 50% in Megacities (>10 mill people) and 50% in small and medium-sized cities • UN predicts 32 megacities in 2025, only 8 in the developed world • Most in Asia, yet approximately 1 bn in cities in Africa • Up to 65% of urban population now live in slums in countries like Bangladesh and Nigeria. Percentage slumdwellers expected to drop. Consideration: New risks, new socio-economic dynamics, inequalities and mobility in complex urban areas than in rural settings. Need to reorientate focus towards urban areas and the ‘hardest to reach’

9. WEALTH/POVERTY, INEQUALITY AND EMPLOYMENT

10. Gettingricher, more places. Boomingmiddleclass

11. Sharp decline in poverty Populations in conflictaffectedstates not seeing the same drop in poverty Consideration: Grow presence and ramp up poverty reduction efforts and service delivery in (all) conflict affected and fragile states

12. New distribution of poverty • 50% of the world’spoor live in China and India; another 25% in other large MICs; remaining 25% in LICs. • Projectionthat at least 50% of world’spoorwill still live in • MICs in 2030, thoughlikely in a new and broader set of countries

13. But inequality is on the rise • Inequalityon the climbeverywhere (fewexceptions eg Brazil), in bothHICs, MICs and LICs – is the cause of social tension and disintegration. • Is inequality a transitionalphenomenon in growthcountries? Will the bottom 20%/poor in thosecountrieseventuallybenefit from the growingwealth? HICsarenogoodrole model, themselvesseeing an increase in inequality. Consideration: Shiftfocus from povertyreduction to confrontinginequality/socialexclusion and fight for equalopportunities and fair shares of wealth? An opportunity to unitethinking/efforts and transfer knowledgeacross programs in Members (mostlyHICs) and MiCs (mostly SCI –countries)?

14. Is absolut povertyhistory in 2030? Endingpoverty in MICS (incl large countriesthatarecurrentlyLICs) willremain a priority in the yearsahead BUT willprimarilybecome a matter of internalredistribution, taxation and inclusivegrowth as most MICS willwant and willreceiveless/zerodevelopmentaid(reflater slides onaid and povertyreduction in MICs) 25% of world’spoor in CAFS will still requireexternal ressource transfers/aid as weknow it todaycombinediewithanti-corruptionefforts

15. Will therebeenough jobs? • Need for 600 mill additional jobs in 2020; more than 175 mill (approx 1 mill@month) will be in South Asia. • Job market in Africa will need to grow by 50%. Concerns about capacity of production sector in Africa to cope with population growth. • Need to grow decent and decently paid jobs in the formal sector to have impact on poverty.

16. Whatabout the youth? • 620 millyoungpeoplewithoutemployment in 2012 – likely to grow? • Youth in Africa and MiddleEast more exposed given demographics, skills and lowcapacity of labourmarket – potentially leading to social tension and new waves of migration to cities but increasingly not to Europe • Evidence of whatworks to increaseyouthemployment and empowermentdemonstrated by SCs Work2Learn and Skills2Succeed programmes Consideration: Ramp up efforts to addressyouthunemployment and disempowerment, and combinewithefforts to attract new revenuesources and form new partnershipswithcorporates in MICs?

17. TECHNOLOGYRESSOURCE SCARCITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE Twoverydifferentmega trends - onlycombined in the present pack to limit # of sections

18. Tectonicshift in development • Solar power energy innovation and mobile phonetechnology – tworevolutionising drivers of social transformation in the last decade and ahead. • Example: Only 10% of absolutepoorwith bank accounts in 2010, but 6 billion mobile phonesworldwide. • Near universal mobile phonecoverageexpected in 2025. Will see new and widespread forms of mobile education, mobile health, mobile bankingetc • Technology innovation and dissemination driven almostexclusively by private sector. Slowuptake and utilization by INGOs. • Uncertaintywhether new forms of technology and innovation willbenefit the poorest OR continue to mainlyaddress ’diseases of affluence’ and contribute to furtherinequality (iejob-technology). Potentiel role for INGOs! Considerations: Buildpartnershipsaround and invest in sophisticatingour program workacross all thematicpriorityareasusing mobile technology and technology driven innovation.

19. Age of scarcity? • New economies and the new middleclasswillincreasinglydemand a ’western diet’ • The poorwillsuffer the most from rationalisation, pricespikes, new land and water management efforts …

20. The cause of future conflicts? Resourcescarcity has the potential to cause new intra- and interstateconflicts and will feature prominently in future discussionsaround fairness and equity, both in countries and internationally Consideration: The ’Fair Shares’ and ’Resource Limits’ agenda is not an obviousone for Save the Children, but question is whetherwecanafford to not engage?

21. ClimateChange – a definitecause of strain BarackObamaissued a record 99 national emergencydeclarations in 2012 Consideration: Ramp up efforts to mainstream DRR across all programmes and invest in resiliencebuilding in both LIC, MIC and HICs. Building adequateresponsecapacity a must. Meanwhile, governments in emergingeconomiesareincreasinglyassertingtheirsovereignty and capacity, and weneed to understand and plan for complementing/ partneringwith national disaster management agencies.

22. NEW GLOBAL POWER BALANCE

23. A polycentricworld + Brazil Nextlayer of growing and powerful nations/N11: Indonesia, Iran, South-Korea, Mexico, Egypt, Pakistan, Philippines, Vietnam, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Turkey + others. Increasinglyalso as aid donors. Consideration: How to position ourselves as a partner of choiceonchildrens’ affairs - domestically and overseas - as new non-OECD powers growtheiraid port folios and look for expertiseon human and social sectoraffairs?

24. … and a league of ’failedstates’ Generatedusing a Human ResilienceIndexexploring the links between human ecologyconditions, human resilience and conflict Not muchchange from today Consideration: Build/maintainstrongoperationalprogrammes in thesecountriesenablingprincipledhumanitarian action and incorporatingconflictriscreduction elements. Others: Mali, Mauritania …?

25. Rising power of non-stateactors ”The shift in national power is onlyhalf the story and maybeovershadowed by an even more fundamental shift in the nature of power … Enabled by communicationstechnologies, by 2025 power almostcertainlywillshift more towardsmultifaceted and amorphousnetworkscomposed of state and non-stateactors …and the international communitywilllack an overarching approach to global governance” US National IntelligenceCouncil The future of politicalinfluence: 1) New actors; 2) Social networkingtechnologies and empoweredindividuals

26. New powerfulactors 34 cities og 13 corporationsamong the world’s top 100 economies Megacitieswillaccount for <15% of world’s population, 25% of world’s GDP and 12% of global CO emission The role of cities is already evident in networksie C40, in shaping policy debates and leading national responses to governancechallenges. In fragile states, cities and localgovernancestructuresareoften the onlyonesthatwork Consideration: Need to apply a city-approach in addition to - orperhaps in lieu of - a national/country approach, at least in somecountries?

27. New powerfulactors (2) • Growth in ’issues’ focussed civil society movementswith the ability to quicklyattract global attention, blurringnorth-southboundaries • Youth as a driving force behind the call for political and social change • Powered by mobile and internet technology • New social movements are organised differently than current NGOs, expressing alternative values of inclusion, participation and innovation. Consideration: How can Save the Children partner with new social movements – networked, transnational , issue-focussed and looselyorganised civil society campaigningactors - with the ability to mobilisequickly, draw attention and carry out sustained action?

28. IT and empoweredindividuals • 1. Spread in mobile technology and internet • (50% i 2030) = significantreduction in the • digital divide • 2. Increasingeducationlevels + spread of IT = empowerment of • individualswhowilldemandequality, transparency and fairness • 3. Will it produce a new politicalresponsiveness and legitimacy? • How willthisplay out in democratic deficit countries? • 4. IT willradicallychange the process of ’government’ • iecrowdsourcing public (NGO?) budgets and priorities Consideration: How to betteruse IT to educate and campaignonrights, equality and transparency, and support citizen’scalls for the same? Use of crowdsourcingie in emergencies? And how to manage the expectations of active participation ieusingtechnology platforms to providechoices of what to campaign for?

29. Impacton global governance • Megacities, corporations and regional networksarelikely to assumeincreasing powers. • Countries and multilateral institutions (in theircurrent make-up) willstruggle to deal with the diffusion of power, and willbeunable to provide solutions to global issuesieresourcescarcity, climatechangeetc • Will wesee a reform of the multilateral institutions we have today? G20 • Governance, ikke Governments? Consideration: Shouldwe start focusingonGovernance (corporate, citiesetc) ratherthanGovernments? Impact for normative instruments ie CRC to whichonlygovernmentsareaccountable?

30. AID AHEAD

31. Institutionalaid in a multipolar world • New donors emerging • Growingsense of national sovereignty in emergingpowers/MICs • New balance of power in multilateral institutions • Regional centres of power dominated by OECD and BRICs • Converging og divergingdevelopment models? (ieWilsonian, Solidarity, Dunantism/Rigths-based, Contractualism) • Increasinghorizontal/South-Southdevelopmentcooperation

32. Middle-Income Country Dilemma EU – Agenda for Change, 2012 • We cannot work with India or Brazil in the same way we work with the Democratic Republic of Congo or Mali. Some countries can now afford to fight poverty themselves and, as a result, this will allow us to focus on places that need more of our help. AndrisPiebalgs, European Commissioner for Development (2012)

33. Middle-Income Country Dilemma (2) • Poor nations, not poorpeople as the determining factor. Other donors ie • Dfid, Danida etcoperatesimilarly • EU grant based bilateral aidwillbe cut starting 2014 • Will still maintainThematicEnvelopes, Partnership Instrument, Democracy • and Human Rigths Instrument. Consideration: How to maintainrelevance for the majoritypoorchildren in MICsgoing forward given ourcurrentfunding model and organisationalset-up? Need to understand scope of remainingfundingenvelopes/ODA element and preferredfundingmodalityie to FPA holders/European INGOsor national agencies.

34. WHY THIS IS A DILEMMA FOR SAVE THE CHILDREN

35. Save the ChildrenMembers ’Only’ 25% of world’spoor Majority of SCI Country Offices 2/3 of world population 75% of world’spoor Growingwealth, future donors & filanthropists BUT Rapidlydeclining OECD aid Limited SC footprint: dwindling SCI Country Offices + a fewMembers

36. Institutional Aid v 2.0 in the new poverty landscape • MICs will want and will receive much less/zero aid • Aid: from an external driver to support inclusive policy processes, co-financed global public goods, knowledge transfers and development policy coherence. • Social change is ultimate internally driven processes ie taxation • Aid to focus on global ‘bads’, risks and shocks • Knowledge transfers (multiple in nature) and systems learning • Policy coherence across all development areas: trade, migration etc • LICs/CAFS will still need Aid v 1.0 Consideration: ImpactonINGOs of thisparadigmaticshift? Need to start adressing global collective ’bads’: inequality, poorgovernance, resourcescarcity, climatechangeetc (across policy, campaigning and programming) withless of a country by country approach, except in LICs & CAFS?

37. Developmentaid… not the full story BUT: Every year approximately 1000 billion USD escape developing countries through illicit capital flight. Succesfultaxation = an income 1.5 times higherthan global ODA. Consideration: How to addressissuesaroundcorporategovernancewhilealso partner with investors and corporations to improvepro-poorimpacts of foreigninvestments?

38. New visions, New ventures, New Actors Young people don’t care if the catalyst for change is a traditional non-profit, government or corporate entity. The organizational forms of the last 100 years are liquefying and then crystallizing into new configurations all the time. • New actors+limited budgets +impatience for positive social change=new ventures and new hybrid forms of aid Consideration: What is ourvalue proposition, and how to position ourselves as a partner of choice for social entrepreneurs, social impact investors and corporationsincreasinglykeen to deliver transformativechange (in sharedvaluepartnerships) – domestically and internationally?

39. A new altruisticeconomy New behaviours in filanthropy= a shift in values – towards engagement and conversation (over “informing” and “educating”), collective determination (over professions and institutions), transparency (over knowledge-hoarding). Only the tip of the iceberg? Consideration: While not magic bullets for poverty reduction, these new platforms are scalable and with low overheads. A risc to established NGOs? What is our answer, and how to grow with the trend and new altruistic values, and to tap into new national wealth in emerging economies?

40. Volatility and shocks Economy Shocks, not stresses, will do most to define the next 15 years Need to buildresilience of the poor and vulnerable Health Governance RESILIENCE Geopolitics Climate Resource Consideration: How do we gear ourselves to campaign and lobby aggressively to maximise the window of opportunity for political influence and change that will open up shortly following shocks?

41. WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN FOR INGOS LIKE SAVE THE CHILDREN? More people, richer, older, fatter, bettereducated, in cities, unequal, resourcescarcity, interconnected, increasedactivism, new actors, new alliances, new aid, new opportunities, governancecrisis …

42. Summary Considerations • Focusonresilience and response– the bottompoorchildren and families are in the firing line • Confrontinequality, not poverty– inequality is a global ’bad’ • Put youthon the agenda – theyriscloosing out on the ’wealthsurge’ and are social transformators • Addressgovernance and fair shares– it matters the most • Focuson urban areas/cities and middleincomecountries– from within! • Beready and run blitzkriegcampaigns– shockswillbe drivers of social change • Work in new ways in new alliances and networks– not just withlikemindedNGOs

43. Summary Considerations (2) • Expectpressure, document and deliver – support and survival is not given • Connect, engage and modernize– to stay global, to stay relevant and tap into new forms of citizenship and altruism • 10. (Balance) outrage and principles– action and positionwilldefinetomorrow’s civil society agencies ”Thoseagenciesthatarenimble and responsivecanbeexpected to survive and thrive. Thosethatarecaughtunaware of the changing donor landscape, orthataretoo rigid to adapt, willface problems” ODI 2012