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OVERVIEW OF THE HIV/AIDS EPIDEMIC

OVERVIEW OF THE HIV/AIDS EPIDEMIC. Marie Laga 23-2-2005 www.unaids.org. Adults and children estimated to be living with HIV as of end 2004. Eastern Europe & Central Asia 1.4 million [920 000 – 2.1 million]. Western & Central Europe 610 000 [480 000 – 760 000]. North America

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OVERVIEW OF THE HIV/AIDS EPIDEMIC

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  1. OVERVIEW OF THE HIV/AIDS EPIDEMIC Marie Laga 23-2-2005 www.unaids.org

  2. Adults and children estimated to be living with HIV as of end 2004 Eastern Europe & Central Asia 1.4 million [920 000 – 2.1 million] Western & Central Europe 610 000 [480 000 – 760 000] North America 1.0 million [540 000 – 1.6 million] East Asia 1.1 million [560 000 – 1.8 million] North Africa & Middle East 540 000 [230 000 – 1.5 million] Caribbean 440 000 [270 000 – 780 000] South & South-East Asia 7.1 million [4.4 – 10.6 million] Sub-Saharan Africa 25.4 million [23.4 – 28.4 million] Latin America 1.7 million [1.3 – 2.2 million] Oceania 35 000 [25 000 – 48 000] Total: 39.4 (35.9 – 44.3) million 00003-E-2 – December 2004

  3. Global estimates for adults and children end 2004 • People living with HIV • New HIV infections in 2004 • Deaths due to AIDS in 2004 39.4 million [35.9 – 44.3 million] 4.9 million [4.3 – 6.4 million] 3.1 million [2.8 – 3.5 million] 00003-E-3 – December 2004

  4. About 14 000 new HIV infections a day in 2004 • More than 95% are in low and middle income countries • Almost 2000 are in children under 15 years of age • About 12 000 are in persons aged 15 to 49 years, of whom: • almost 50% are women • about 50% are 15–24 year olds 00003-E-4 – December 2004

  5. Trends in Number of People Living with HIV infection 1980 - 2002 by WHO Region Growth of the African epidemic slowed down since 1997 Changes in the African epidemic will greatly affect global numbers

  6. HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 1986-2001 1986 1991 20 – 39% 10 – 20% 5 – 10% 1 – 5% 0 – 1% trend data unavailable 1996 2001 outside region Source:UNAIDS/WHO July 2002 Source:UNAIDS/WHO July 2002 Large differences in severity within Africa: Southern >> Eastern and Central > Western

  7. Trends in median HIV prevalence in the same antenatal sites by country and period, Southern Africa, 1997-2002 The epidemic is leveling off at extremely high levels of prevalence

  8. HIV prevalence by age and sex, Zambia DHS 2001-02 Women get infected earlier than men, often under 25 years

  9. Kisumu: Multicentre Study *Buve et al, AIDS 2001

  10. 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 Deaths at ages 15-34South Africa: 1980-2025(Estimated and projected ) 2,000 Without AIDS 1,600 With AIDS 1,200 Deaths (thousands) 800 400 0

  11. Lifetime risk of AIDS death for 15-year-old boys, assuming unchanged or halved risk of becoming infected with HIV, selected countries 100% 90% Botswana 80% Zimbabwe 70% Botswana South Africa Risk of dying of AIDS Zambia 60% Zimbabwe 50% Kenya South Africa risk halved over next 15 years Zambia Côte d’Ivoire 40% current level of risk maintained Cambodia Kenya 30% Côte d’Ivoire Burkina Faso 20% Cambodia Burkina Faso 10% 0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Current adult HIV prevalence rate Source: Zaba B, 2000 (unpublished data)

  12. Senegal Changes in life expectancyin selected African countries with high and low HIV prevalence: 1950-2005 65 60 with high HIV prevalence: Zimbabwe 55 South Africa Botswana 50 Life expectancy (years) 45 with low HIV prevalence: Madagascar 40 Mali 35 30 1950– 1955 1955- 1960 1960- 1965 1965- 1970 1970- 1975 1975- 1980 1980- 1985 1985- 1990 1990- 1995 2000- 2005 1995- 2000

  13. AIDS orphans in South Africa

  14. HIV prevalence and deaths due to AIDS 2004

  15. The Cycle of HIV Disease 1. Incidence of HIV Infection 3. Incidence AIDS 2. Prevalence of HIV Infection 4. Prevalence of AIDS 5. Mortality from AIDS

  16. Prevention of new HIV infections ? • No preventive vaccine in near future • <20% of people at risk have access to proven HIV prevention interventions • condom programs • needle exchange • Contextual factors such as stigma and gender inequality remain major barriers

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