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Centre for Development Economics and Sustainability

Dezenvolvimentu Ekonómiku iha Timor-Leste Brett Inder ▪ Katy Cornwell ▪ Gaurav Datt. Centre for Development Economics and Sustainability. Introdusaun. Finansiamentu : Programa Asisténsia hosi Governu Australia ( Australian Aid Program ) Objetivu-sira :

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Centre for Development Economics and Sustainability

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  1. DezenvolvimentuEkonómiku iha Timor-Leste Brett Inder ▪ Katy Cornwell ▪ Gaurav Datt Centre for Development Economics and Sustainability

  2. Introdusaun Finansiamentu: ProgramaAsisténsiahosiGovernu Australia (Australian Aid Program) Objetivu-sira: • Refleta ba Faze I Planu Estratéjiku Dezenvolvimentu • Esplora papél dezenvolvimentu agríkola hodi redús pobreza no kria kreximentu ekonomia ida ne'ebé sustentável Aims

  3. Planu EstratéjikuDezenvolvimentu (SDP): “Atu sainasaunne'ebé ho rendimentu iha nivel médiu ba leteniha tinan 2030” ho populasaun ne'ebésaudavel, edukadu no seguruiha tinan 2030 • Planeamentu asaun hodi atinje objetivu ida-ne’e difisil: - Ihaprioridadebarakmakkompetebamalu - Presizaliñakoordenasauniha area oioin - Inisiativa balun fóimpaktusosiálne'ebéladúnajuda • Laihaemaidamakiharespostahotu! Ami ihane’eaturona no aprende, no hoharaik an refletahosiperspetivaemali'urnian

  4. SDP phases of implementation STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2011-2030 “Vision :Timor-Leste to be an upper-middle income country by 2030” Long-Term 2021-2030 Mid-Term 2016-2020 Short-Term 2011-2015 • FAZE I • Human Resources Development • Infrastructure • Strategic Industries • FAZE II • Infrastructure • Strengthening Human Resources • Market Formation • FAZE III • Eradication of Extreme Poverty • Strong Private Sector • Diversified Non-oil Economy

  5. FAZE I • DezenvolvimentuRekursuUmanu • Infra-estrutura • Indústriane'ebéEstratéjiku Prioridade tolu ne’e importante tebes ba Dezenvolvimentu ida ne'ebé susesu • Infra-estrutura– buathirakne'ebémakfasilitaatividadeekonómiku. Maibé: sira rasik la'ós atividade ekonómiku (sustentável). • RekursuUmanu– pesoál ne'ebé bele aproveita oportunidade ekonómiku ne'ebé mak kria hosi infra-estrutura. • Indústriane'ebéEstratéjiku– infra-estruturamesakde'itsei la to’o. Presizaakompañaho “estímulubapovu” (grass roots stimulus), ne'ebéfó target basetórprioridadene'ebéespesífiku.

  6. FAZE I • DezenvolvimentuRekursuUmanu • Infra-estrutura • Indústriane'ebéEstratéjiku Impaktu ba pobreza saida mak ita bele haree durante Faze I? Durante faze ida-ne’e, parese sei laiha impaktu boot ba Pobreza. Tansá? • Investimentuihakapitalumanu no projetu infra-estrutura boot, fóimpaktuuitoande'itihatempubadak. • Impaktubalunitabelehareehosi “indústriane'ebéEstratéjiku” – agrikultura no manufatura. Maibé, agrikultura no manufatura mak área ne'ebé nia progresu difisil tebes atu atinje.

  7. GDP la’ós Mina hoPresune'ebékonstante GDP la’ós mina ne'ebéReál, jerálmentesa’emaka’as, maibéla'ósihaagrikultura no manufatura Total GDP la’os Mina Total Non-Oil GDP Agrikultura, Floresta & Peskas Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Manufatura Manufacturing

  8. Why has growth in manufacturing been slow? Constraints • Labor costs are relatively high and educational standards are poor • Poor business climate • Inflation was high from 2011 to 2013 likely pushing up costs for businesses • Import duty rates are low and do not give an incentive to produce domestically • Government has not yet identified specific sub-sectors (e.g. food processing, brewing etc) of manufacturing where Timor-Leste could compete Many of these issues are now being addressed • Improving business climate; with introduction of SERVE (one stop shop) • Inflation has fallen and access to education has improved • CoM recently established a working group to review import duty and excise to encourage domestic production (without reducing overall domestic revenue) • Ministry of Finance and ESCAP are undertaking study on economic diversification Evidence of sharp increase in number of international companies interested in investing in Timor-Leste

  9. Why has growth in agricultural production been slow? No detailed study has been done on this issue. But likely causes are: Poor Incentives • Access to money in rural areas from pensions, remittances, labor on PDID schemes arguably means that there is less incentive to work long hours to produce food to sell • Access to jobs and education in Dili may have encouraged urban migration of younger more productive farmers • Importation of subsidized and non-subsidized international rice probably improves living standards but lowers domestic prices and production Limited Support Services • Limited access to subsidized inputs (fertilizer), extension services and marketing Cultural Constraints • Farmers may not regard main staple crops (rice and corn) as business opportunities • Poor harvest in 2011 (due to heavy 2010 rains) and access to subsidized rice may have led to a shift in tastes away from corn toward rice Inefficient Investments • Large scale investments in weir based irrigation schemes seem are unlikely to significantly increase production

  10. SetórAgríkola Tansá mak setór ida-ne’e prioridade? • Dezenvolvimentukuaze sempre hahúhosisetóragrikultura – ne'ebé involve ema, no oinsáemahirakne’ehala'oniamoris. • Dezenvolvimentu involve halo modernizasaunbaatividadeekonómikuihasetóragríkola no setór “urbanu” (manufatura, bens e servisu), no halo balansu entre setórhirakne’e.

  11. Hasa’e produsaun agríkola Ba merkadu Hamenus pobreza & hasa’e ekonomia Ai-han aumenta: Hasa’e produtividade agríkola Ba uma-kain Enerjia aumenta Edukasaun & saúde ne'ebé di'ak Hasa’e fornesimentu traballadór sira ne'ebé han di’ak saudavel, & edukadu ba setór sira seluk Hasa’e empregu iha setór manufatura & servisu-sira Traballadór ne'ebé barak Investimentu iha setór sira seluk Hasa’e input

  12. Cambodia’s Story KambojaniaIstória Kambojaihaistória balun ne'ebéhanesanho Timor-Leste: • Konflitu 1970-1999, tuirkedanhoprosesukonstrusaunba Pas • Populasaunporsentu 80 makhelaihaárearurál • Barak liumakagrikulturasubsistensia (homisturafini no perfílesportane'ebédiferente – barakliuihaKambojamakfoos) • Iha 2007, taxa pobreza mak porsentu 50.1 (porsentu 53.2 iha tinan 2004)

  13. Cambodia’s Story KambojaniaIstória

  14. Cambodia’s Story: How did they do it? KambojaniaIstória Oinsásirabele halo? • InvestimentuGovernubaiha infra-estruturabázikururál (dalan, irrigasaunrurál no sst) • Urbanizasaunuitoande’it • Produsaunfini (foos) kuazedobradu (dua kali lipat). Ida-ne’eatinjeliuhosihadi’akprodusaun no espandeáreakultivasaun (budidayapertanian) • Sorte: Presufoosmundiálne'ebésa’emaka’as

  15. Pobrezaiha Timor-Leste PobrezaKonsumsaun, TLSLS 2007: • Porsentu 49.9 makihaliñapobrezakonsumsaunniaokos

  16. PobrezaKonsumsaun Lina Pobreza $0.88 Konsumsaun nia Distribuisaun Konsumsaun uma-kain, per kapita, per loron

  17. How is Consumption Poverty Calculated? Oinsámakitakalkula PobrezaKonsumsaun? Adisiona(tambahkan) valórdespezauma-kain per kapita (atuálkakalkulasaun) hosikada: • Nesesidade (eletrisidadensst) • Alugauma • Saúde • Edukasaun • Buat ruma ne’ebé família sosa (la'ós hahán) • Hahán

  18. Komponente Konsumsaun Uma-kain per kapita Components of Household per capita Consumption Lina Pobreza $0.88

  19. Komponente Konsumsaun Uma-kain per kapita Lina Pobreza $0.88

  20. Komponente Konsumsaun Uma-kain per kapita Components of Household per capita Consumption Eletrisidade nsst: 6c Aluga uma: 13c Saúde<1c Edukasaun1c Sosa (la’ós hahán): 7c Hahán: Sosa 31c Totál per kapita Konsumsaun loroloron: 88c Totál Hahán: 61c (70%) Hahán: Fó ba malu 4c Hahán: Produsaun rasik 26c

  21. Komponente Konsumsaun Uma-kain per kapita Components of Household per capita Consumption Eletrisidade nsst: 6c Saúde<1c Edukasaun1c Sosa (la’ós hahán): 7c Hahán: Sosa 31c Komponente Kas/Osan: 45c

  22. Osan / Kas Mai hosi Ne’ebé?

  23. Osan / Kas Mai hosi Ne’ebé Where Does the Cash Come From? Populasaun Timor-Leste Uma-Kain ne’ebe Fa’an Kafe % Rendimentu Kas % Uma-kain Kafe iha Decile Populasaun ida-idak Decile Konsumsaun

  24. Osan / Kas Mai Hosi Ne’ebé Where Does the Cash Come From? Uma-Kain ho Rendimentu hosi Empregu Populasaun Timor-Leste % Rendimentu Kas % Uma-kain Empregu iha Decile Populasaun ida-idak Decile Konsumsaun

  25. Saidamakbeleajudahodihasa’e uma-kainbaliñapobrezanialeten? Lina Pobreza $0.88 Konsumsaun nia Distribuisaun Konsumsaun uma-kain, per kapita, per loron

  26. Simulasaun: Se Karik … ? KreximentuihaAgrikultura Karikuma-kainagrikultura no kafé (populasaunporsentu 47) belehasa’esiraniaprodusaun… …Saida mak sei akontese ba taxa pobreza?

  27. Simulation: What if … ? Growth in Agriculture Simulasaun: Se karik … ? KreximentuihaAgrikultura

  28. Simulation: What if … ? Growth in Agriculture Simulasaun: Se karik … ? KreximentuihaAgrikultura 2007 Atual Fa’an Produsaun Kiak 49.9% La Kiak La Fa’an Produsaun

  29. Simulation: What if … ? Growth in Agriculture Simulasaun: Se karik … ? KreximentuihaAgrikultura 2007 Atual ProdusaunDobradu (2x Lipat) Uma-kainne’ebeFa’an Fa’an Produsaun Fa’an Produsaun Kiak 49.9% La Kiak Kiak 37% La Kiak La Fa’an Produsaun La Fa’an Produsaun

  30. Simulation: What if … ? Growth in Agriculture Simulasaun: Se karik … ? KreximentuihaAgrikultura

  31. Simulation: What if … ? Growth in Agriculture Simulasaun: Se karik … ? KreximentuihaAgrikultura 2007 Atual Kuda Ai-han &/ Kafe Kiak 49.9% La Kiak La Kuda / Koilleta

  32. Simulation: What if … ? Growth in Agriculture Simulasaun: Se karik … ? KreximentuihaAgrikultura 2007 Atual ProdusaunHotu-HotuDobradu (2x lipat) Kuda Ai-han &/ Kafe Kuda Ai-han &/ Kafe Kiak 49.9% La Kiak Kiak 31% La Kiak La Kuda / Koilleta La Kuda / Koilleta

  33. Simulasaun: Se karik … ? KreximentuihaAgrikultura • Hasa’eprodusaunfini & kafé, beleatinjekalae? • Ihaposibilidadekalae, hodifa'anprodusaunsirane’ehotu? • Nato’ononakalae, hasa’euma-kainbaliña pobreza nialeten? • Ihakonsekuensia / multiplier effectskalae?

  34. Simulation: What if … ? Growth in Employment Simulasaun: Se karik … ? Kreximentu iha Empregu • Rata-rata, iha 2007 traballadór ne’ebé la'ós agrikultura hetan osan $100 kada fulan. • Se karikitahasa’eto’odobradu (dua kali lipat) númeruuma-kainhorendimentuempregu (hosi 22% ba 44%), no alokarendimentuadisionálida-ne’ebauma-kainne'ebémakseidaukhetanrendimentuempregu … …Saida mak sei akontese ba taxa pobreza?

  35. Simulation: What if … ? Growth in Employment Simulasaun: Se karik … ? Kreximentu iha Empregu

  36. Simulation: What if … ? Growth in Agriculture Simulasaun: Se karik … ? Kreximentu iha Empregu 2007 Atual HetanOsanhosiEmpregu Kiak 49.9% La Kiak La Hetan Osan hosi Empregu

  37. Simulation: What if … ? Growth in Agriculture Simulasaun: Se karik … ? Kreximentu iha Empregu 2007 Atual EmpreguDobradu (2x lipat) HetanOsanhosiEmpregu HetanOsanhosiEmpregu Kiak 49.9% La Kiak Kiak 40% La Kiak La Hetan Osan hosi Empregu La Hetan Osan hosi Empregu

  38. OinsámakbeleHasa’e ProdusaunAgríkola? Ami observa aproximasauntolune’ebébelehala’ohamutuk: 1. Fóatensaunbadezafiu-sira 2. Definiobjetivu 3. Kriaoportunidade

  39. 1. FóatensaunbaDezafiu-sira Identifika no fóatensaunbadezafiuprinsipálsira. Porezemplu …

  40. Why has growth in agricultural production been slow? No detailed study has been done on this issue. But likely causes are: Poor Incentives • Access to money in rural areas from pensions, remittances, labor on PDID schemes arguably means that there is less incentive to work long hours to produce food to sell • Access to jobs and education in Dili may have encouraged urban migration of younger more productive farmers • Importation of subsidized and non-subsidized international rice probably improves living standards but lowers domestic prices and production Limited Support Services • Limited access to subsidized inputs (fertilizer), extension services and marketing Cultural Constraints • Farmers may not regard main staple crops (rice and corn) as business opportunities • Poor harvest in 2011 (due to heavy 2010 rains) and access to subsidized rice may have led to a shift in tastes away from corn toward rice Inefficient Investments • Large scale investments in weir based irrigation schemes seem are unlikely to significantly increase production

  41. 2. Objetivu, Responsabilidade & Target AplikasaunidabaJestaunBazeiabaRezultadu (result-based Management) : • Definiobjetivujerál no sub-objetivune’ebédetallada • Fóresponsabilidadeklarubatraballadórsirahodiservisuatinjeobjetivuhirakne’e • Defini target ne'ebéuzahodisukatprogresu Porezemplu …

  42. 3. Establish targets Each goal, sub-goal and activity has a specific target Goal: Increase Agricultural Production Target: Sector growth of 5% per year Sub-Goal: Increase crop production Target: Annual production increased by % Product Increase staple food production Annual production of staple food increased by % Increase area cultivated with rice Target: rice Cultivated area increase to 57,000 ha Example of RMB applied to DPCM Economic Sector

  43. 3. OportunidadeihaAgrikultura Saidamakdaudaunne’ela'odi'ak? Saidamakbeletransforma an no saidi’akliu tan se hetanapoiu no enkoraja? 1. Programadezenvolvimentulokálrurálne'ebé tau matanbafornesimentu (supply chain) tomak. 2. Fokabatipuprodusaun no produtórsirane'ebémakihaprodusaunne’ebébarakliu (surplus) bamekadoria agora daudaun. Fokamósbasirane'ebéihapoténsia boot bamekadoria. 3. Fasilidadeprosesamentuai-han.

  44. Sumáriu (1) Planu Estratéjiku Dezenvolvimentu (SDP) estabelese orientasaun balun ne'ebé luan, no estabelese prioridade-sira. (2) Difisiltebesatuatinjeprogresuiha area balun duke area siraseluk. (ezempluAgrikultura, Edukasaun no setórprivadu) (3) Redusaun boot ihapobrezabeleatinjeliuhosikreximentumodestuihasetórne’ebéihakapitálumanubarak. (4) Ami hareekatakdalankapásidamakfokabaapoiu no espandeprogramasirane'ebémakfunsionakala'ohodi'akona.

  45. DezenvolvimentuEkonómiku iha Timor-Leste Brett Inder ▪ Katy Cornwell ▪ Gaurav Datt Centre for Development Economics and Sustainability

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