1 / 14

Electoral Systems & N of Parties

Electoral Systems & N of Parties. Moser. Basis. Duverger’s hypothesis on single-member plurality elections Will it hold true in post-communism? Russ, UK, Poland show that plurality can produce fragmented party systems over time Poland & Hungary conform: Russ & UK not. Thesis.

armand
Download Presentation

Electoral Systems & N of Parties

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Electoral Systems & N of Parties Moser

  2. Basis • Duverger’s hypothesis on single-member plurality elections • Will it hold true in post-communism? • Russ, UK, Poland show that plurality can produce fragmented party systems • over time Poland & Hungary conform: Russ & UK not

  3. Thesis • Electoral system effect mitigated by institutionalization • Explains failure of SMD systems to have expected effects • Weak insts of post-comm a unique chance to test strategic voting

  4. Duverger modified • District magnitude found to be decisive • Cox argues SMP may fail to reduce vote for minor parties IF • voters are not short term instrumental • info not available on voter intentions • belief that a candidate will win • many voters who are indifferent on 2nd & lower choices

  5. Mixed systems • Modelled after the German • Curbs proliferation? • But Russia & Coratia does not compensate parties • vote in direct and PR systems calculated separately • No post-comm state uses only SMP

  6. Findings • Average n. effective parties = 7.7 • 2x average for consolidated democracies using PR • AV level of disproportionality 11.31 • More than 2x that for PR systems in consolidated • And higher than av of majoritarian systems

  7. Voters • Rose found independent voters in Russia 78% cf • 13% in US and 8% in GB • N parties & level disprop underestimated by actual vote shares because voters and elites make strategic decisions favouring larger parties • should increase over time

  8. Evidence? • Poland shows high adaptation • 1997 consolidated in electoral blocs • so fewer small parties left without rep • Russ & Lith show opposite trend • N parties in PR increased from 1 to 2 election • Explanation: institutionalization

  9. Corroboration • Bucking trend in majoritarian system • UK: only 11% candidates nominated by parties • RUSS: Non-partisan candidates won 48% vote 1993 and 36% in 1995 • 52% winners in 1993 were independents • 34% winners in 1995 were independents

  10. Conclusion • With extreme party underdevelopment • Electoral system promoting party labels (PR) will constrain n parties better than SMP if legal threshold is used

  11. Pres election 26/3/2000 • Putin sscores 52.5% • Zhuganov 29.4% • Turnout 68.8%

More Related