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Explore the evolution, growth, and future predictions of Alternative Investments beyond traditional securities. Learn about key driving factors, market segments, and leading companies shaping this dynamic investment landscape.
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Alternative Investments:The Broad Set of Investments Beyond Public Securities Tiburon Research November 6, 2019
Outline • Alternative Investments Market Evolution • Key Driving Factors • Basic Usage Data • Market History • Market Growth • Market Definition • Leading Alternative Investment Companies • Market Segments • Financial Alternative Investments • Hedge Funds • Venture Capital & Private Equity • Real Estate • Other Financial Alternative Investments • Non-Financial Alternative Investments • Wine • Cannabis • Other Non-Financial Alternative Investments • Markets & Distribution Channels • Direct Distribution • Financial Advisor Markets • Institutional Markets • International Markets • Alternative Investments Future Predictions • Moderate Growth of Alternative Investments • Emergence of Venture Capital & Private Equity as Retail Product • Ultimate Dominance of Real Estate as Leading Alternative Investment • Ongoing Retailization (Liquid Alternatives) • More Formalization of Non-Financial Alternative Investments Businesses • Ultimate Convergence of Active Management & Alternative Investments
Alternative Investments Have Been Driven by Several Factors Key Driving Factors Comments • -- Source: Tiburon Research & Analysis
Alternative Investments Have Been Driven by Less Certain Traditional Securities Markets, Higher Correlations Between Traditional Investments, Superior Investment Returns in Varying Alternative Investments, & Diversification Opportunities Add page regarding downsides: more complex, higher fees, less liquidity, & underperformance in good markets Alternative Investments Key Driving Factors Foreign currency funds, gold, & preferred stocks can all add alternative return characteristics for considerably less expense Alternative Investments Key Driving Factors Less Certain Traditional Securities Markets Higher Correlations Between Traditional Investments Superior Investment Returns in Varying Alternative Investments Diversification Opportunities Source: 10/7/13 Wall Street Journal; 5/30/12 Financial Advisor Magazine; Tiburon Research & Analysis
Alternative Investments’ First Key Driving Factor is Less Certain Traditional Securities Markets Less Certain Traditional Securities Markets Comments • -- Source: Tiburon Research & Analysis
Alternative Investments’ Second Key Driving Factor is Higher Correlations Between Traditional Investments Higher Correlations Between Traditional Investments Comments • -- Source: Tiburon Research & Analysis
Alternative Investments’ Third Key Driving Factor is Superior Investment Returns in Varying Alternative Investments Superior Investment Returns in Varying Alternative Investments Comments • -- Source: Tiburon Research & Analysis
New York City Taxi Medallion Transfers’ Total Returns Have Increased 98% Since the Lehman Brothers Holdings Collapse Odd time period Total Returns Since Lehman Brothers Holdings Collapse By Asset Class Brent Crude Oil (__) Dow Jones-UBS Commodities Total Return Index (__) Source: 9/13/13 Financial Times Group; Tiburon Research & Analysis
Alternative Investments’ Fourth Key Driving Factor is Diversification Opportunities Diversification Opportunities Comments Lower correlation • -- Seen periods where alternative investments had low correlation to traditional assets Source: 10/7/13 Wall Street Journal; 8/6/13 Wall Street Journal; Tiburon Research & Analysis
Outline • Alternative Investments Market Evolution • Key Driving Factors • Basic Usage Data • Market History • Market Growth • Market Definition • Leading Alternative Investment Companies • Market Segments • Financial Alternative Investments • Hedge Funds • Venture Capital & Private Equity • Real Estate • Other Financial Alternative Investments • Non-Financial Alternative Investments • Wine • Cannabis • Other Non-Financial Alternative Investments • Markets & Distribution Channels • Direct Distribution • Financial Advisor Markets • Institutional Markets • International Markets • Alternative Investments Future Predictions • Moderate Growth of Alternative Investments • Emergence of Venture Capital & Private Equity as Retail Product • Ultimate Dominance of Real Estate as Leading Alternative Investment • Ongoing Retailization (Liquid Alternatives) • More Formalization of Non-Financial Alternative Investments Businesses • Ultimate Convergence of Active Management & Alternative Investments
Alternative Investments Have Basic Usage Data Basic Usage Data Comments Not appropriate for most investors • -- Source: 10/7/13 Wall Street Journal; Tiburon Research & Analysis
Alternative Investments Have Basic Usage Data, Including Participation Rates, Portfolio Allocations, Assets Under Management, & Net Flows Alternative Investments Basic Usage Data Alternative Investments Basic Usage Data Participation Rates Portfolio Allocations Assets Under Management Net Flows Source: Tiburon Research & Analysis
Alternative Investments Participation Rates Alternative Investments Participation Rates Comments Typical client owns alternative investments: 2008 (83%); 2013 (96%) • -- 2014 financial advisor expectations: increase (45%); stay the same (36%); decrease (2%); do not utilize (17%) Source: 1/6/14 Financial Times; 1/6/14 Investment News; Tiburon Research & Analysis
Two-Thirds of Institutional Investors Say that Alternative Investments are as Important or More Important than Traditional Investments Institutional Investors By Propensity to Believe Alternative Investments are as Important or More Important than Traditional Investments Source: 5/30/12 ThinkAdvisor; Tiburon Research & Analysis 13
Nearly Two-Thirds of Financial Advisors Say that Alternative Investments are as Important or More Important than Traditional Investments Financial Advisors By Propensity to Believe Alternative Investments are as Important or More Important than Traditional Investments Source: 5/30/12 ThinkAdvisor; Tiburon Research & Analysis 14
Almost Half of the Financial Advisors Invest in Alternative Investments Financial Advisors By Propensity to Invest in Alternative Investments Source: 9/21/18 ThinkAdvisor (Cerulli Associates); Tiburon Research & Analysis 15
Over Half of the Wirehouse Financial Advisors Invest in Alternative Investments Wirehouse Financial Advisors By Propensity to Invest in Alternative Investments Source: 9/21/18 ThinkAdvisor (Cerulli Associates); Tiburon Research & Analysis 16
Over Half of Bank Owned Regional Brokerage Firms Invest in Alternative Investments Bank Owned Regional Brokerage Firms By Propensity to Invest in Alternative Investments Source: 9/21/18 ThinkAdvisor (Cerulli Associates); Tiburon Research & Analysis 17
Tiburon CEO Summit Attendee Content Survey on Financial Advisor Use of Alternative Investments Tiburon CEO Summit Attendee Content Survey Feedback onFinancial Advisor Use of Alternative Investments “The broad category has disappointed. The idea of true alternatives in mutual funds was a good one but a lot of strategies have not met expectations. There are some like market neutral and long short equity that have done reasonably well but strategies like commodities and managed futures have had spotty success” • Jeff Cusack Senior Managing Director, Nuveen InvestmentsTiburon CEO Summit XXXV Source: 10/7/18 Tiburon CEO Summit XXXV Content Survey (Cusack); Tiburon Research & Analysis 18
One View of Alternative Investment Usage Alternative Investment Usage One View Ultra High Net Worth: Strategic Limited Partnership Offering High Net Worth: Off Platform One-Off Private Equity & Real Estate Opportunities Moderate Net Worth: Real Estate Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) Source: 9/25/19 Edelman Financial Engines Conversation (Edelman); Tiburon Research & Analysis 19
Alternative Investments Portfolio Allocations Alternative Investments Portfolio Allocations Comments • -- Source: 9/30/19 Wall Street Journal; 9/26/19 Wall Street Journal; 9/25/19 Fund Fire; 4/3/19 Napier Park Partners Presentation (Piaker); 4/2/19 Artivest Presentation (Waldinger); 1/10/19 Calamos Investments Web Site; 11/29/18 Wall Street Journal; 10/9/18 Guggenheim Investments Presentation (Miller); 10/6/18 Tiburon CEO Summit XXXV Content Survey Data; 10/5/18 Wall Street Journal; 10/4/18 Wall Street Journal; Tiburon Research & Analysis
One-Quarter of Institutional Investors Say that they Plan to Allocate More than One-Quarter of their Portfolios to Alternative Investments, Down From 37% Financial Advisors Assets Under Management By Share in Alternative Investments Source: 5/30/12 ThinkAdvisor; Tiburon Research & Analysis
North American Defined Benefit Plans Allocate the Largest Share of Assets Under Management to Alternative Investments at 7.5% Needs update Defined Benefit Plans Allocations to Alternative Investments By Region Source: 12/02 Putnam Lovell/New River Research Report; Tiburon Research & Analysis
Family Offices are Boosting their Allocations to Alternative Investments But are Lowering their Non-Marketable Securities, which Include Hedge Funds Needs update Family Offices Assets Under Management By Investment Type Alternative investments include real estate, oil & gas, venture capital, and other direct investments Cash Non-Marketable Securities Non-traditional marketable securities includes hedge funds, options, futures, etc. International Alternative Investments United States Fixed Income United States Equities Source: 12/97 Family Office Exchange Survey; Tiburon Research & Analysis
Financial Advisors Have Invested 7.2% of Assets Under Management in Alternatives, Up From 5.7% in 2017 Financial Advisors Assets Under Management Share in Alternative Investments Source: 4/2/19 Artivest Presentation (Waldinger; 11/29/18 Wall Street Journal; 10/6/18 Tiburon CEO Summit XXXV Content Survey Data; 10/5/18 Wall Street Journal; 10/9/18 Guggenheim Investments Presentation (Miller); 10/4/18 Wall Street Journal; 10/3/18 Wall Street Journal; 9/21/18 ThinkAdvisor (Cerulli Associates); 4/11/18 Nyca Presentation (Morris); 4/10/18 JP Morgan Chase & Company Presentation (O’Brien); Tiburon Research & Analysis
Tiburon CEO Summit Attendee Content Survey on Financial Advisor Use of Alternative Investments Tiburon CEO Summit Attendee Content Survey Feedback onFinancial Advisor Use of Alternative Investments “Huge gaps in allocation rates between institutional investors, wirehouses, & independent advisors” • Matt BrownCEO, CAIS GroupTiburon CEO Summit XXXVII Source: 9/6/19 Tiburon CEO Summit XXXVII Content Survey (Brown); Tiburon Research & Analysis
Alternative Investments Assets Under Management Assets Under Management Comments • -- Source: Tiburon Research & Analysis
Financial Advisors Have Invested $1.7 Trillion in Alternative Investments, Up From $1.3 Trillion in 2016 Needs update Financial Advisors Alternative Investments Assets Under Management ($ Trillions) Source: 9/21/18 ThinkAdvisor (Cerulli Associates); 7/19/18 Aite Research Report; 4/4/17 Morningstar Presentation (Phillips); 4/4/17 Sontag Advisory Presentation (Sontag); 4/4/27 TD Ameritrade Presentation (Schweiss); 10/11/16 Trust Company of America Presentation (Pace); Tiburon Research & Analysis
Wirehouses Have Invested $194 Billion in Alternative Investments, Up From $154 Billion in 2011 Needs update Wirehouses Alternative Investments Assets Under Management ($ Billions) Source: 5/31/16 Money Management Institute (MMI) Report; Tiburon Research & Analysis
Alternative Investment Portfolio Allocation Net Flows Net Flows Comments • -- Source: Tiburon Research & Analysis
Institutional Investors Continue to Invest in Alternatives Aggressively Alternative data: 2013 (67%); 2014 (64%) Institutional Markets Net Flows Share to Alternative Mergers Source: 12/18/17 Money Management Executive (Hedge Fund Research); 1/11/16 Pensions & Investments; Tiburon Research & Analysis
Institutional Investors Invested $107 Billion with Alternative Investments Managers, Up From $25 Billion in 2010 Needs update Institutional Investors Alternative Investments Net Flows ($ Billions) Source: 1/11/16 Pensions & Investments; Tiburon Research & Analysis
Outline • Alternative Investments Market Evolution • Key Driving Factors • Basic Usage Data • Market History • Market Growth • Market Definition • Leading Alternative Investment Companies • Market Segments • Financial Alternative Investments • Hedge Funds • Venture Capital & Private Equity • Real Estate • Other Financial Alternative Investments • Non-Financial Alternative Investments • Wine • Cannabis • Other Non-Financial Alternative Investments • Markets & Distribution Channels • Direct Distribution • Financial Advisor Markets • Institutional Markets • International Markets • Alternative Investments Future Predictions • Moderate Growth of Alternative Investments • Emergence of Venture Capital & Private Equity as Retail Product • Ultimate Dominance of Real Estate as Leading Alternative Investment • Ongoing Retailization (Liquid Alternatives) • More Formalization of Non-Financial Alternative Investments Businesses • Ultimate Convergence of Active Management & Alternative Investments
Alternative Investments Emerged in the Early 1900s and Have Subsequently Evolved through their Hedge Funds, Venture Capital, Liquid Alternatives, & Real Estate Phases Alternative Investments History Alternative Investments Emerged Alternative Investments Today Hedge Funds Phase Liquid Alternatives Phase Real Estate Phase Venture Capital Phase Approximate Dates: Early 1900’s 2001 - 2015 1783 - 1989 1970 - 2000 2020 2016 - 2020 • 1990s: Venture capital boomed with a focus on technology • 1990s: Hedge funds-of-funds gained market share during bullish periods and fell disproportionately during two downturns • 1990s: Commercial backed mortgage securities were highly profitable • 1992: Treasury inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) introduced • 1992: George Soros was blamed for devaluing the British Pound • 1994: House of Representatives Banking Committee considered Federal Reserve oversight of hedge funds • 1996: National Securities Markets Improvement Act passed • 1997: Hedge funds drew criticism in the Asian currency crisis • 1997: Mutual funds with hedge fund strategies emerged • 1998: Ellington Capital Management collapsed • 1998: Soros Fund Management lost $1.0 billion on a Russian investment • 1998: Big name hedge funds such as Tiger Management began to struggle • 1998: Real estate investment trusts (REITs) growth slowed • 1999: Real estate investment trust (REIT) legislations broadened their ability to establish taxable subsidiary companies • 1999: Commercial backed mortgage securities had their first drop in volume in nine years • 1999: Mini futures contracts introduced • 1999: Commercial backed securities declined • 1999: Hedge fund losses turned focus to risk • 1999: A flight to quality after the emerging markets debt crisis caused Long Term Capital Management to collapse and assets were acquired by Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group, Merrill Lynch, & Citigroup • 1999: Macro manager began to struggle • 1999: Robert Rubin & Alan Greenspan concluded hedge funds do not cause market turmoil • 1933: Securities Act defined eight types of accredited investors • 1940: Investment Company Act passed • 1949: AW Jones coined the phrase hedged fund • 1950s: Venture capital business founded • 1952: AW Jones introduced the 20% incentive fee • 1960s: Private equity business founded • 1960s: Real estate investment trusts (REITs) created • 1966: Fortune magazine published article about AW Jones & Company coined the term hedge fund • Late 1960s: Many new hedge funds began using leverage to increase returns without hedging • 1968: New Yorker published article describing hedge funds as supercharged way of investing • 1968: Stock market downturn wiped out many over-leveraged hedge funds • 1969: First hedge fund-of-funds Leveraged Capital Holdings founded • 1970-1985: Old-line limited partnerships were popular • 1970s: Hedge funds receded from public attention • 1970: Fortune published article Hard Times Come to Hedge Funds • 1970: Hedge fund assets under management declined 70% due to poor stock market and hedge fund failures • 1974: Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) allowed pension funds to invest in venture capital • 1976: Kohlberg, Kravis, Roberts, & Company founded • 1977: Grantham, Mayo, Otterloo, & Company founded • 1980s: Private equity funds gained prominence through blockbuster investments • 1980s: Prime brokers increased their exposure to hedge funds • 1980: Tiger Management founded • Mid-1980s: Timber investing for pension funds occurred • 1983: GAM founded • 1983: Mesirow Financial founded • 1985: The Blackstone Group founded • 1986: Old-line limited partnerships market shrunk with tax law change • 1986: Tiger Fund revived interest in hedge funds • 1986: Reforms reduced REITs use as a tax shelter & allowed to operate property Key Steps: • 1492: Christopher Columbus funded by Queen Isabella as first venture capital project • Early 2000s: Hedge funds received attention as the markets collapsed • Early 2000s: Short-selling funds did well • Early 2000s: Returns suffered for many funds that billed themselves as directionally immune • 2000: Venture capital funds dried up after technology bubble burst • 2000: Tiger Management closed • 2000: Real estate growth slowed due to the drop in United States farm exports • 2000: Farmland prices may have fallen without the multibillion dollar bailout by Congress • 2002: Lipper & Company collapsed • 2002: Single stock futures reintroduced • 2002: Chicago Mercantile Exchange went public • 2002: The Chicago Art Institute lost nearly 50% of its $43 million investment in Integral Investments • 2003: Market timing scandals occurred • 2003: Late trading scandals occurred • 2004: Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) voted to require hedge fund managers to register as investment advisers • 2004: Internal Revenue Service (IRS) allowed individuals to assign real estate investments to their IRAs • 2004: Ten mutual fund companies paid a total of $2.8 billion in fines & fee reductions to settle late trading charges • 2005: Julius Baer acquired GAM from UBS • 2005: Chicago Board of Trade called off merger with Chicago Mercantile Exchange and initiated initial public offering (IPO) • 2006: Federal court threw out the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) ruling requiring hedge fund managers to register as investment advisors • 2006: High net worth consumer households investing in hedge funds declined • 2007: Many hedge funds earned billions betting against subprime related securities • 2007: Many hedge funds lost billions holding subprime securities • 2007: Some mutual fund companies began structuring private equity mutual funds • 2007: Some private equity firms exited venture capital • 2007: Foreign institutions began investing in private equity firms • 2007: Some private equity firms went public • 2008: Hedge funds absolute returns premise was challenged when hedge funds lost 19% • 2008: Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme uncovered • 2010: Dodd-Frank required all hedge funds with $150 million or more to register with the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC), designate a chief compliance officer, & maintain thorough trading records • -- Source: 11/4/19 Investment News; 11/1/19 Wall Street Journal; 9/30/19 Wall Street Journal; 9/26/19 Wall Street Journal; 9/25/19 Fund Fire; 4/3/19 Napier Park Partners Presentation (Piaker); 4/2/19 Artivest Presentation (Waldinger); 1/10/19 Calamos Investments Web Site; 11/29/18 Wall Street Journal; 10/9/18 Guggenheim Investments Presentation (Miller); 10/6/18 Tiburon CEO Summit XXXV Content Survey Data; Tiburon Research & Analysis 33
Outline • Alternative Investments Market Evolution • Key Driving Factors • Basic Usage Data • Market History • Market Growth • Market Definition • Leading Alternative Investment Companies • Market Segments • Financial Alternative Investments • Hedge Funds • Venture Capital & Private Equity • Real Estate • Other Financial Alternative Investments • Non-Financial Alternative Investments • Wine • Cannabis • Other Non-Financial Alternative Investments • Markets & Distribution Channels • Direct Distribution • Financial Advisor Markets • Institutional Markets • International Markets • Alternative Investments Future Predictions • Moderate Growth of Alternative Investments • Emergence of Venture Capital & Private Equity as Retail Product • Ultimate Dominance of Real Estate as Leading Alternative Investment • Ongoing Retailization (Liquid Alternatives) • More Formalization of Non-Financial Alternative Investments Businesses • Ultimate Convergence of Active Management & Alternative Investments
Alternative Investments Market Growth can be Measured Many Ways Market Growth Comments • -- Source: Tiburon Research & Analysis
Financial Services Firms Alternative Investment Funds Partners Employees Clients Accounts Net New Accounts Assets Under Management Net Flows Revenues Net Profits Alternative Investments Market Growth can Specifically be Measured by the Number of Financial Services Firms, and their Number of Alternative Investment Funds, Partners, Employees, Clients, Accounts, Net New Accounts, Assets Under Management, Net Flows, Revenues, & Net Profits Alternative Investments Market Growth Measures Alternative Investments Market Growth Measures Source: Tiburon Research & Analysis
The Alternative Investments Market Has Financial Services Firms Needs data Alternative Investments Financial Services Firms Source: Tiburon Research & Analysis
Alternative Investments Offer 31,471 Alternative Investment Funds Needs update Alternative Investments Alternative Investment Funds “Reg D Offerings” Comparison: 2,427 public offerings in 2012 Source: 11/1/19 Wall Street Journal; Tiburon Research & Analysis
Alternative Investments Firms Have Partners Needs data Alternative Investments Partners Source: Tiburon Research & Analysis
Alternative Investments Firms Have 125,000 Employees, down From 155,000 in 2007 Needs update Alternative Investments Employees Data is hedge funds only Alternative data: 2008 (71,200) (hedge funds) Source: 2/28/09 Financial Times (Options Group); Tiburon Research & Analysis
Alternative Investments Firms Serve Clients Needs data Alternative Investments Clients (Millions) Source: Tiburon Research & Analysis
Alternative Investments Firms Have Gathered Accounts Needs data Alternative Investments Accounts (Millions) Source: Tiburon Research & Analysis
Alternative Investments Firms Gather Net New Accounts Needs data Alternative Investments Net New Accounts (Millions) Source: Tiburon Research & Analysis
Alternative Investments Firms Have Gathered $4.0 Trillion Assets Under Management, Up From $42 Billion in 1998 Needs more complete data (1988-2019 hedge funds only now) (2014-2019 estimates for alternative investments) Alternative Investments Assets Under Management ($ Billions) Alternative data: 2003 ($700); 2004 ($900); 2007 ($2,260); 2008 ($1,400); 2009 ($1,400 & $1,900); 2010 ($1,700); 2012 ($1,100 & $1,900); 2013 ($1,300) Source: 7/3/15 Financial Times (Towers Watson); 2/17/14 Money Management Executive (Pricewaterhouse Coopers Analysis); 4/20/13 The Economist; 9/16/13 Pensions & Investments; 10/5/11 Barclay Hedge Web Site; 10/4/11 Triton Pacific Email (Michie); 4/18/11 Wall Street Journal (Hedge Fund Research); 4/5/11 Barclay Hedge; 8/30/10 Morningstar Presentation (Mansueto); Tiburon Research & Analysis
Alternative Investments Firms Gather $900 Billion Net Flows, Up From $318 Billion in 2007 2012 = Reg D offerings; 2007-2010 = hedge funds only Alternative Investments Net Flows ($ Billions) Needs update Institutional Markets: Alternative managers continue to be hired more than traditional managers with $107 billion Comparison: public offerings raised $1.2 trillion in 2012 2008 2009 Source: 1/11/19 Wall Street Journal; 4/4/17 Ark Investment Management Presentation (Wood); 4/4/17 Catalyst Funds Presentation (Szilagyi); 3/27/17 Envestnet Conversation (DePina); 3/27/17 RBC Conversation (Gordon); 3/23/17 EverBank Financial Conversation (Trotter); 3/22/17 TD Ameritrade Conversation (Schweiss); 10/11/16 Altegris Presentation (Beaulieu); 10/11/16 55 Capital Partners Presentation (Kranefuss); Tiburon Research & Analysis
Alternative Investments Firms Generate $100 Billion Revenues Needs more complete data (hedge funds only now) Alternative Investments Revenues ($ Billions) Needs update Source: Tiburon Research & Analysis
Alternative Investments Firms Earn $74.5 Billion Needs more complete data (hedge funds only now) Alternative Investments Net Profits ($ Billions) Needs update Source: Tiburon Research & Analysis
Outline • Alternative Investments Market Evolution • Key Driving Factors • Basic Usage Data • Market History • Market Growth • Market Definition • Leading Alternative Investment Companies • Market Segments • Financial Alternative Investments • Hedge Funds • Venture Capital & Private Equity • Real Estate • Other Financial Alternative Investments • Non-Financial Alternative Investments • Wine • Cannabis • Other Non-Financial Alternative Investments • Markets & Distribution Channels • Direct Distribution • Financial Advisor Markets • Institutional Markets • International Markets • Alternative Investments Future Predictions • Moderate Growth of Alternative Investments • Emergence of Venture Capital & Private Equity as Retail Product • Ultimate Dominance of Real Estate as Leading Alternative Investment • Ongoing Retailization (Liquid Alternatives) • More Formalization of Non-Financial Alternative Investments Businesses • Ultimate Convergence of Active Management & Alternative Investments
Alternative Investments can be Defined Many Ways Market Definition Comments 2012: 75% of net flows went to hedge funds, venture capital & private equity funds, and commodity trading pools (remaining 25% went to private businesses) • -- Source: 11/1/19 Wall Street Journal; Tiburon Research & Analysis