Will Climate Change be our Demise... or our Salvation?

1. Will Climate Change be our Demise... or our Salvation? Bioneers Conference, 2012 Sustain Dane Jonathan Patz, Professor & Director Global Health Institute Nelson Institute & Dept. Population Health Sci.

2. Changes in sea ice extent Sept 1980 The Arctic sea ice cover Siberia Greenland Alaska September 1980: 7.8 million square kilometers Courtesy: Don Perovich

3. Changes in sea ice extent Sept 2007 Siberia Greenland Alaska September 2007: 4.2 million square kilometers Courtesy: Don Perovich

4. HEALTH EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE Heat Waves Air Pollution & Aeroallergens Vector-borne Diseases Water-borne Diseases Water resources & food supply Mental Health & Environmental Refugees Heat Stress Cardiorespiratory failure Respiratory diseases, e.g., COPD & Asthma Malaria Dengue Encephalitis Hantavirus Rift Valley Fever Cholera Cyclospora Cryptosporidiosis Campylobacter Leptospirosis Malnutrition Diarrhea Toxic Red Tides Forced Migration Overcrowding Infectious diseases Human Conflicts CLIMATE CHANGE Temperature Rise 1 Sea level Rise 2 Hydrologic Extremes 13°C by yr. 2100 240 cm““ IPCC estimates Patz, 1998

5. HEAT WAVE - EUROPE • 70,000 deaths in 11 days (Robine et al. 2008) Heat Index Summer 2003

6. Russia 2010: 1 month heatwave (>100°) 55,000 excess deaths 1 million acres burnt 25% drop in crop yields US$15 billion loss 'Mega-heatwaves' such as the 2003 and 2010 events broke the 500-yr long seasonal temperature records over 50% of Europe.Probability of 'mega-heatwaves’ will increase by a factor of 5 to 10 within the next 40 years. Barriopedro et al Science 21 March 2011 10.1126/science.1201224 Courtesy: Alistair Woodward

7. Climate change: It’s not just about warming.

8. USA: Combined sewer overflows (CSOs) 1.2 trillion gal of sewage & stormwater a year discharged during combined sewer overflows – would keep Niagara Falls roaring for 18 days Courtesy: Kellogg Schwab

9. In Future, when it rains…it will pour. By mid-century, Chicago region may experience 50-120% increase in CSO events (Patz et al. 2008) Globally Averaged U.S. CCSP, 2008

10. Today’s 1 billion at risk for hunger could double by mid-century. Future summers warmer than warmest on record Battisi and Naylor, Science 2009

11. Americans emit 6-times the global average CO2 per capita Distribution of 200,000 deaths/yr from recent warming. . Patz, Gibbs et al. 2007

12. Discussing Ethics of Climate Change Oct. 2011, Daramsala, India “If you know pollution kills, your country is not showing much compassion…correct?”

13. Could Health Benefits Make Combating Climate Change Free? …or even a net gain?

14. The opportunity for improving health determinants We can reduce: The 900,000 annual deaths from urban air pollution The loss of 1.9 million deaths, and 19 million years of healthy life, from physical inactivity WHO, 2007

15. Asthma and Air Pollution • 1996 Summer Olympic games in Atlanta • Peak morningtraffic decreased 23% and peak ozonelevels decreased 28% • Asthma-related emergency room visits by children decreased 42% • Children’s emergency visits for non-asthma causes did not change during same period Friedman et al. JAMA 2001;285:897

16. Adult Obesity Only 31 years

17. Status of Americans • Americans are, on average, 17 pounds heavier than we were 30 years ago! • ≈ 15 % of children and adolescents age 6-19 are overweight (CDC 2004). • 20.8 million people have diabetes (7% of the population) (CDCP 2005) • 60% of American adults do not meet recommended levels of physical activity, and 25% are completely sedentary (DHHS, 1996) 40% of trips by car are < 2 miles (Dept of Transportation)

18. Sustainable transportation: Buses of Bogota

19. Our Midwest Transportation Study …assumes that all round trips of 5 miles or less could be accomplished through alternative modes (non ICE) transportation. Grabow et al. 2012

20. 11 Midwestern Cities

21. What are the associated emissions? (CO2, NO2, SO2, VOCs, PM, etc.). Technology & Activity Scenarios What are the health impacts of predicted pollution levels? How do these emissions impact air pollution? Ozone From transportation…to human health Research question #2: Assume all round trips of 5 miles or less could be accomplished by non internal combustion engine transportation. Grabow et al. 2012

22. >500 lives saved/yr • 100,000s of Hospital admissions avoided • >$4 billion in avoided mortality and health care costs 20% fewer car trips:Change in air pollution And if those short trips (< 5 mi. round-trip) were done by bicycle, the fitness benefit would save >700 lives /yr and another $4 billion dollars in avoided mortality costs Grabow et al (2012)

23. Key messages that emerged

24. Health effects by disease (London) Courtesy: Sir Andy Haines Woodcock et al, 2007

25. Ethiopia: Climate-Resilient Green Economy

26. Hawassa Bahir Dar Addis Ababa

27. Good biking infrastructure

28. In only 6 years, the gasoline rickshaw has taken over the streets!

29. Madison’s Sister Cities Purpose: … enhance… Madison’s involvement in …global economy, cultural environment, educational, humanitarian and business opportunities for Madison companies in the regions or countries of our Sister Cities. (Madison Common Council) Ainaro, East Timor Arcatao, El Salvador Camaguey, Cuba Freiburg, Germany Mantova, Italy Obihiro, Japan Vilnus, Luthuania

30. Can a sister city in Ethiopia become the model city for the rest of Africa?

31. Next year in Hawassa and Bahir Dar?

32. Bikeable Africa Initiative BIKEABLEAFRICA.ORG Day 1 is today!

33. Thank you very much! The Wisconsin Idea